On the theory of moving average graduation

Abstract

In this paper a new criterion for judging the properties of moving averages is given, and moving averages which are optimal according to this criterion under general assumptions are derived. For the standard case where the observations are uncorrelated and have equal variance, our optimal moving averages generalize two well-known optimal moving averages: The minimum-variance and the minimum-R_z moving averages. This case is given some particular attention in the theoretical discussion, and some Monte Carlo experiments throw further light on it. These investigations indicate that our generalization is of practical as well as theoretical interest. The paper also contains the result that Spencer's 21-term moving average is approximately equal to the corresponding minimum-R ₅ moving average.     

Associations between affect and risk perception

Risk perception research has been dominated by cognitive psychology as a theoretical basis for understanding how people perceive and judge risks. However, during the last few years the role of affect in risk perception has received increased attention. Potential hazards may cause worry and concern and, consequently, an affective component is involved. Affects are often assumed to be post-cognitive. The present study aims to test the hypothesis that an 'image of risk', i.e. affect, may precede cognitive judgement and need not always be a criterion variable. During the period 1996 to 1998 a questionnaire survey was carried out in Norway. In total 1450 respondents replied to the questionnaire. Structural equation modelling showed that the fit of the models of risk depended on the respondents' sex, education and the type of risks evaluated. In the majority of model tests the idea that an image of risk may predict the cognitive judgement of risk was supported. The study also identified two dimensions of affectivity. Cognitive judgements of risk seemed not be related to affectivity as such, but rather to one aspect of affect, i.e. worry and concern. Treating affectivity as one dimension may be a hindrance to detecting the real associations between general affect and cognitive risk judgements.     

Social mediation in remote developing world tourism locations – the significance of social ties between local guides and host communities in sustainable tourism development

This article discusses the role of the local, or regional, guide as a social mediator between a host society and tourists, as a means of sustainable tourism development in developing world locations. The debate illustrates how previous studies have neglected this social aspect of mediation by tourist guides and partly absorbed it into the concept of cultural mediation. Empirical illustrations are offered from the context of small tourist group visitations to local villages in rural areas of Madagascar, where collective social norms still play an important role. A qualitative approach based on personal interviews with guides and on field trip experience and observation is employed. Empirical findings indicate that the inclination of the host society to welcome accompanied tourists is facilitated by the capacity of local guides to develop relatively strong social ties with the host society. It is suggested that the increased use of local guides with good social relationships with the local communities as against the mere employment of non-local accompanying guides working for centrally located tour operators can enrich the mutual experience quality in the encounter between visitors and hosts and support local sustainable development by enhanced local involvement. Implications for sustainable tourism practice are discussed.     

Born Global Firms and Informal Investors: Examining Investor Characteristics

A “Born Global” is a new venture with a global niche market focus from day one. Many of these firms experience high growth rates, but also, a considerable need for funding. This study contrasts informal investors involved in born global firms (“Born Global Investors”) with other informal investors. The underlying thesis is that the behavior of these investors reflects their investment philosophy, at least on a differential basis. The results suggest that born global investors differ from other informal investors in terms of deal origin, investment size, and exit preferences. Their experience as managers of large firms seems to be a particularly important factor, increasing investment capacity (income and fortune), while personal and professional networks influence the access to information about investment opportunities. The importance of these results for the development of born global firms is discussed.     

Domestic Regulation and International Trade

We consider the effects of a one-sided price regulation of one of two complementary inputs. The provider of the regulated input is a domestic firm, while the provider of the other input is a foreign firm. This describes the market structure for several digital information and communication services, where the regulated input is access while the non-regulated complementary input is content. We show that one-sided regulation may have negative welfare effects compared to a free market economy, unless the regulator has a first-mover advantage. In the latter case, regulation is welfare enhancing regardless of whether the foreign input provider uses linear or non-linear wholesale prices.     

Economies of scale in Norwegian electricity distribution: a quantile regression approach

In this article, we investigate scale economies in Norwegian electricity distribution companies using a quantile regression approach. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to apply this estimation technique when analysing scale economies. We estimate the cost elasticities of the two output components: network length and number of customers, to calculate returns to scale. Our results show large potential of scale economies, particularly for the smallest companies. We also find that returns to scale is increasing over time. These findings have important implications for policymakers when they are deciding the structure of the industry in the future.     

I. Allgemeine Wirstchaftslehre

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