Macroeconomic policies and performance in Latin America

This paper provides new evidence on macroeconomic policies and results in Latin America and the Caribbean. Results are: (i) credibility allows adoption of counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies; (ii) accuracy in meeting inflation targets depends on central bank independence and country risk; (iii) intermediate exchange rate (ER) regimes have become less persistent; (iv) ER regimes matter for inflation and growth; (v) real ER trends are not explained by productivity growth and supply reforms do not resolve real ER misalignments; (vi) financial integration has increased significantly; (vii) foreign shocks are a major growth determinant; and (viii) composition of foreign capital inflows matters for growth.     

The Power of Networks: Integration and Financial Cooperative Performance

Abstract ** :  The purpose of this paper is to perform a cross‐country survey of the level of integration of systems of financial cooperatives (FC) and its effect on measures of performance. We develop a classification scheme based on a theoretical framework that builds on published work using transaction cost economics (TCE) to explain integration of large numbers of financial cooperatives into networks. We identify three critical levels of increasing integration we call respectively atomized systems, consensual networks and strategic networks. Further, we test some of the propositions that result from the theoretical framework on an international sample of financial cooperative systems. Based on this analysis we can conclude that: (i) Integration is less (more) important in developing (more developed) countries and for very small (large) financial cooperatives as a determinant of efficiency. However, integration tends to reduce volatility of efficiency and performance regardless of development. (ii) Integration appears to help control measure of managers' expense preferences that tend to affect performance of FC. (iii) Despite high costs of running hub‐like organizations in highly integrated system, these systems economize in bounded rationality and operate at lower costs than less integrated systems.     

Market Channels,Quality Incentives and Contract Harvesting: The Case of Maize,Soybean and Groundnut

The development of markets for maize, soybean and groundnut over the last ten years has been characterised by increasing commercialisation and increasing market differentiation, because of the diversity of end uses. Research conducted by the Department of Agriculture in 1987 and 1988 confirmed earlier findings that commercialisation has not led to opportunities at farm level to expand returns through quality improvement. At trader and factory levels, though, the market rewards qualities required for specific end uses. Findings clearly indicate that market development is commodity specific and that generalisation across the three crops encounters difficulties. The significance of imports was found to be different among the three crops. The role of contract harvesting varies independently of the degree of commercialisation; its extent is important in identifying who benefits from post-harvest research. The informal sector was found to be of particular importance in soybean. It was concluded that the only external intervention which would increase farm income was the introduction of specific varieties, which find market rewards from specific users. Large grain size is rewarded in groundnut, while the tahu and tempe industries both require specific soybean varieties.     

Marginal q,Tobin's q,Cash Flow,and Investment

Many studies of the determinants of investment use Tobin's q to control for the investment opportunities of a firm. Tobin's q roughly measures the average return on a firm's capital anticipated by the market. More relevant for investment decisions, however, is the marginal return on capital. In this paper we estimate investment and research and development (R&D) equations using a measure of marginal q. We use marginal q to identify the existence of cash constraints and managerial discretion and as a separate explanatory variable. For a sample of 560 U.S. firms observed over the 1977-1996 period we present evidence confirming the existence of both cash constraints in some companies and managerial discretion in others.     

To invest, or not to invest, in brands? Drivers of brand relevance in B2B markets

When allocating resources to brand investments, managers should consider the relevance of brands to the purchase decision process. Past research on consumer markets shows that brand relevance generally is driven by three functions: image benefits as well as information cost and risk reductions. This study is the first to investigate these underlying mechanisms of brand relevance in a business-to-business setting. Our main contribution is that, in contrast with consumer markets, brand relevance in industrial markets depends primarily on risk and information cost-reducing effects. Therefore, business-to-business firms should invest in their brands using tactics that support the reduction of risk and information search costs for customer decision making. This article also demonstrates that brand relevance differs across product categories, such that depending on the specific category, investing in brands may or may not be a promising strategy.     

Consumption paths under prospect utility in an optimal growth model

This paper studies the Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey model of optimal economic growth in the presence of loss aversion and habit formation. The representative agent's preferences for consumption can be gradually varied between the standard constant intertemporal elasticity of substitution (CIES) case and Kahneman and Tversky's prospect utility. We find that the transitional dynamics of optimal consumption paths differ distinctly from the standard model, in particular consumption smoothing is more pronounced. We also show that prospect utility can cause the economy to remain in a steady state with low consumption and low capital.     

Production technologies in stochastic continuous time models

Properties of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models can be revealed by either using numerical solutions or qualitative analysis. Very precise and intuition-building results are obtained by working with models which provide closed-form solutions. Closed-form solutions are known for a large class of models some of which, however, have some undesirable features such as potentially negative output. This paper offers closed-form solutions for models which are just as tractable but do not suffer from these shortcomings.     

Michael Schmolke 70 Jahre

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