Einige numerische Untersuchungen auf Grund der kollektiven Risikotheorie

Abstract

Wir gehen nun zu einem Bericht betreffs der Berechnungen über, die unter Annahme einer Maximierung des Versicherungsbetrages (Methode 2, Seite 93) und zur Bestimmung der Wahrscheinlichkeitszahl φ₁ gemacht worden sind.     

A Norwegian fixation: explaining cheap money in Norway, 1945–1986

In a number of European countries, credit markets were characterised by heavy regulations of quantities and prices, in terms of interest rates, in the post war years. In Norway, the regulations became more vigorous and lasted much longer, than most other countries. This article seeks to explain the extent and persistence of the policy by tracing the role of leading economists, of financial sector, and political considerations in relation to growths policies and the housing markets. Whereas a number of factors are highlighted in the emergence of the system, the role of political considerations in relation to cheap funding for the housing sector appears as a fundamental cause and condition in explaining the persistence of the cheap money policies into the mid-1980s.     

Das Spannungsverhältnis von Unklarheitenregel und Transparenzgebot — insbesondere bei Allgemeinen Versicherungsbedingungen

The text deals with the relation of § 305c Abs. 2 BGB (contra proferentem rule) and § 307 Abs. 1 S. 2 BGB (transparency control) especially in terms and conditions of insurance contracts. The author demonstrates that the contra proferentem rule is a special rule for ambiguous standard terms and conditions that is of higher priority than the transparency control.     

Current Foresight Activities inCentral Europe

During the early 1990s, technology foresight has become much more widespread. First pioneered in the United States and later in Japan, it has now spread to continental Europe. One of the first engagements in modern national foresight occurred in the Netherlands. The task is to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest socio-economic benefits. The decentralized foresight approaches are less holistic than elsewhere and are concerned with selected areas. In Germany, parallel approaches have been adopted for looking systematically into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy, and society. In an era characterized by ever fiercer global economic competition, and with the burden of unifying two different science systems and over-stretched public expenditure budgets, the German governments on federal and state levels and indeed the public are coming to expect more direct economic and social benefits from science in return to their investment. Decentralized types of foresight are also observed in Austria, whereas in Hungary the first attempts to arrive at a foresight program seem to be modelled after British experiences.     

Mehr Sozialprodukt mit weniger Energie: Es gibt nichts umsonst!

Economic growth guarantees prosperity and employment. In the interest of climate protection Germany is also aiming to significantly reduce its energy consumption. The Federal Government is committed to increase the real gross domestic product by 26 % between 2006 and 2020 and to reduce primary energy consumption in the same period by 17 %. Although long-term economic growth is possible with falling energy consumption, it does imply changes: structural changes and investments, which will initially require funding. In a simple model, it can be shown that the government’s ?hyper-decoupling“ of economic growth from energy demand will lead to an increase in the overall expenditure resulting from energy consumption between 2006 and 2020 of more than 60 % (the optimistic scenario) or 150 % (the less optimistic scenario). The accelerated use of modern energy technologies can help to set in motion the desired process to protect the environment and, at the same time, limit the resulting burden on the consumer. Here the intensified support of research and development of modern technologies will play an important role.     

Über die versicherten-sterblichkeit in Finnland. 1920–1930

Abstract

Ende des Jahres 1932 trafen die finnischen Lebensversicherungsgesellschaften Massnahmen für eine gemeinsame Untersuchung über die Sterblichkeit ihrer Versicherten während des J ahrzehntes 1920–1930. In dieser Absicht gab en die Aktuare der verschiedenen Gesellschaften den Herren Dr. Emil Wessel, Dr. E. A. Hintikka und Professor Dr. R. Nevanlinna in Auftrag einen Entwurf zur Ausführung einer solchen Untersuchung zu machen. Anfang Dezember war der Vorschlag des Dreier-Komitees fertig, der auch genehmigt wurde, sodass die Arbeit im Anfang des folgenden Jahres beginnen konnte.     

New danish bases of calculation in life and pension insurance

Abstract

A committee consisting of actuaries representing private life offices, private pension offices, and Statsanstalten for Livsforsikring (The State Life Insurance Institution) transacting both life and pension business, have compiled a complete set of calculation bases, which have been adopted by all Danish life and pension offices with effect as from January 1, 1966.     

The impacts of innovations and standards on trade of measurement and testing products: empirical results of Switzerland’s bilateral trade flows with Germany, France and the UK

Nowadays, the impact of the measurement and testing infrastructure on economic performance and trade is theoretically and even politically widely accepted. However, there are no empirical studies on this issue. The purpose of this paper is to elucidate the impact of innovative capacity and technical standards as one important part of the measurement and testing infrastructure on international trade flows and competitiveness. In order to focus on the direct causality between innovative technology and measurement and testing standards and the respective market, the empirical analysis concentrates on the trade of measurement and testing products of a country with a top position in measurement and testing technology. In its empirical analysis of Switzerland’s trade flows with Germany, France and the UK, the paper follows the approach of the pioneering paper of Swann et al. (Economic Journal 106 (1996) 1297), who integrated for the first time technical standards as a technology indicator in the estimation of UK trade performance. The trade flows in measurement and testing products from 1980 until 1995 are explained by both an indicator for innovative capacity and for the degree of standardisation. The first indicator is based on the patent applications at the European patent office. The latter uses the stocks of technical standards in the countries differentiated by their regional scope. Four different trade equations are analysed, besides an export and an import function, the trade balance and the intra-industry trade. The results clearly show that both Switzerland’s innovative capacity and its stocks of standards are able to explain its export performance in the three countries. Secondly, especially the stocks of international standards in Switzerland have a positive impact on imports into Switzerland from the three countries, confirming their positive role for fostering trade in general. Thirdly, Switzerland’s export surplus concerning the three trade partners is positively affected by the stocks of international standards in Switzerland, which seem to be an important factor for international competitiveness. Finally, the results of the intra-industry model underline the common view of the general trade-fostering effect of even national standards in the case of the trade with the three countries.     

How do consumers switch between close substitutes when price variation is small? The case of cigarette types

Past empirical studies report ambiguous results regarding the magnitude and significance of substitution between different types of smoking tobacco. Since all types of tobacco contain nicotine this is quite surprising. Using a 20-year rotating panel data set of Norwegian households and a multinomial logit model, we find evidence that consumers switch between tobacco types: first, estimated price effects on choice probabilities have mostly expected signs, albeit their statistical significance vary across different metrics, second, household characteristics affect tobacco composition significantly. These findings suggest that consumers’ choices are ‘locked’ when the relative price variation is small, as has been the case in most of the data period, but that larger changes could induce large-scale switching between tobacco types. Our conjecture is that there is a latent potential for switching, which will become manifest if prices change sufficiently. Similar considerations are likely to have relevance for other close substitutes.