Idiosyncrasies of the Software Development Process and Their Relation to Software Patents: Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Evidence

In Europe, the future patenting of software-related inventions has been the subject of intensive discussions for some time, since there exists a strong dispute between the supporters of the U.S. practice of allowing patents in order to increase Europe's competitiveness and the opponents postulating negative impacts of patents on the software development process. This paper presents empirical results about the idiosyncrasies of the software development process and tests hypotheses on their impact on the likelihood of patents being obstacles for software dvelopment. The paper concludes with the identification of determinants for preferences concerning different possible patent regimes in the future.     

An extended production/recycling model with stationary demand and return rates

A production–recycling system is investigated. A constant demand can be satisfied with production and recycling. The used items are bought back and then recycled. The non-recycled products are disposed of. Two types of models will be analyzed. The first model examines the EOQ-related costs and minimizes the relevant costs. The second model generalizes the first model with the introduction of the cost function with linear waste disposal, recycling, production and buyback costs. It is asked whether the pure (either production or recycling) or mixed strategies are optimal and it will be shown that under these circumstances the mixed strategies are dominated by the pure strategies. The paper generalizes a former model proposed by the authors for the case of one recycling and one production batch to the case of arbitrary batch numbers.     

Imperfect Information and Stock Market Volatility

The purpose of this paper is to (1) develop a model to show how imperfect information can create excess volatility in asset returns and (2) provide empirical evidence consistent with the model. In this framework, variations in information quality cause the market prices to fluctuate more than the corresponding economic fundamentals. Using high‐frequency data from 1988 to 2002, the empirical evidence supports the predictions of the model by showing that economic volatility, defined as squared deviations of the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate from its long‐run trend, can explain about half of the variation in S&P 500‐stock index quarterly volatility.     

Regulatory foresight: Methodologies and selected applications

This paper on regulatory foresight addresses approaches which allow future fields for regulatory action to be identified. We follow a rather wide perception of regulation and include standards and standardisation as elements of the regulatory framework. The paper presents three methodologies appropriate for performing regulatory foresight. First, an approach is presented which makes use of science and technology indicators and enables the identification of possible fields which may cause challenges for the regulatory framework and the regulatory bodies. Second, survey approaches are displayed which enable regulatory bodies to identify future needs for regulations. Finally, the usability of the Delphi methodology is discussed and results of a Delphi survey in the telecommunication area are presented. The paper concludes with a comparative analysis of the three methodological approaches regarding their effectiveness to conduct regulatory foresight.     

The information content of the term structure: Evidence for Germany

This paper studies the usefulness of spreads between interest rates of different maturities as indicators of future inflation and real interest rates in Germany, using monthly data starting in 1967∶1. The central results are twofold. First, the interest rate spreads considered contain considerable information about future changes in inflation, but no information about the time path of real interest rates. Second, the medium-term segment of the yield curve (spreads between 6 and 2 year rates, for instance) appears to be the most informative for future inflation. These results are similar to those obtained by Mishkin (1990b) and Jorion and Mishkin (1991).     

The Rule of Three, its Variants and Extensions

The Rule of Three (R3) states that 3/ n  is an approximate 95% upper limit for the binomial parameter, when there are no events in  n  trials. This rule is based on the one-sided Clopper–Pearson exact limit, but it is shown that none of the other popular frequentist methods lead to it. It can be seen as a special case of a Bayesian R3, but it is shown that among common choices for a non-informative prior, only the Bayes–Laplace and Zellner priors conform with it. R3 has also incorrectly been extended to 3 being a "reasonable" upper limit for the number of events in a future experiment of the same (large) size, when, instead, it applies to the binomial mean. In Bayesian estimation, such a limit should follow from the posterior predictive distribution. This method seems to give more natural results than—though when based on the Bayes–Laplace prior technically converges with—the method of prediction limits, which indicates between 87.5% and 93.75% confidence for this extended R3. These results shed light on R3 in general, suggest an extended Rule of Four for a number of events, provide a unique comparison of Bayesian and frequentist limits, and support the choice of the Bayes–Laplace prior among non-informative contenders.     

Exploring the interaction of firm-level change and national institutional environments in shaping employment and union relations: a comparative case study of four European airlines

Drawing on the example of the airline industry, this paper explores in a longitudinal comparative case study the question of how firm-level changes and national institutional environments interact in shaping employee and union relations. Adding to previous research in comparative institutional analysis and comparative employment relations, we illustrate that the way in which industry pressures and national-level effects play out to influence employee and union relations depends on firm-level changes, mainly in the form of firm growth, acquisitions and the foundation of new subsidiaries. We show in particular that depending on firm-level changes, the very same firm might engage differently with a given institutional context at different points in time. Hence, our work illustrates the importance of firm growth, acquisitions and the foundation of new subsidiaries in explaining the shifting interaction between the firm and its institutional environment, and its implications for changing employee and union relations within firms.     

Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach

By using a dynamic factor model, we can substantially improve the reliability of real-time output gap estimates for the U.S. economy. First, we use a factor model to extract a series for the common component in GDP from a large panel of monthly real-time macroeconomic variables. This series is immune to revisions to the extent that revisions are due to unbiased measurement errors or idiosyncratic news. Second, our model is able to handle the unbalanced arrival of the data. This yields favorable nowcasting properties and thus starting conditions for the filtering of data into a trend and deviations from a trend. Combined with the method of augmenting data with forecasts prior to filtering, this greatly reduces the end-of-sample imprecision in the gap estimate. The increased precision has economic importance for real-time policy decisions and improves real-time inflation forecasts.     

From natural resources and environmental accounting to construction of indicators for sustainable development

Norway has a long history in trying to develop management tools for sustainable development. From the early development of natural resources accounts in the 1980s, through discussions of the usefulness of indices like “green GDP” to efforts of developing sustainable development indicators, experiences have been gained. The paper seeks to both describe the landscape and discussions associated with the key terms, and to communicate some lessons drawn from the Norwegian experiences. The conclusion focuses on the fact that whatever information is collected and organised to support the relevant decision-making processes, the final outcome should always be judged in terms of its impacts on policy processes. Thus, we issue a warning against large-scale development of information systems, without due regard to the final utilisation of the output.     

Green promotes the dirtiest: on the interaction between black and green quotas in energy markets

Tradable black (CO₂) and green (renewables) quotas gain in popularity and stringency within climate policies of many OECD countries. The overlapping regulation through both instruments, however, may have important unintended consequences. Based on theoretical analysis we show that a green quota imposed on top of a black quota promotes power production by the dirtiest technologies as compared to a black quota regime only.