Firm Size and Wages in Germany – Trends and Impacts of Mobility

The analysis of firm-size wage differentials in Germany, using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, firstly corroborates the finding that wages rise with firm-size and shows that the rank order of mean wages between firm-size classes is stable for the period 1984–1993. Secondly, the most important novel results are as follows: (i) wage differentials between firm-size classes increased during the period investigated after controlling for individual attributes and computing with deflated values; (ii) average levels of the qualification of employees have diverged noticeably between small and large firms; (iii) movers from small to larger firms have to accept wages below the average pay of incumbents with comparable attributes in the new firms: (iv) movers to smaller firms, however, retain a portion of their higher wages in larger firms; and (v) wage differentials between smaller and larger firms decline with increasing unemployment.     

Egalitarian Wage Policies and Long-Term Unemployment

How does a centrally imposed egalitarian wage policy affect unemployment, when workers differ with respect to productivity? The effect on total unemployment is found to be ambiguous. Egalitarian wages encourage job creation because increased profits derived from the most productive workers more than outweigh reduced profits derived from the least productive workers. Short-term unemployment is reduced. On the other hand, firms respond by raising their reservation productivity. Some workers are left almost completely unemployable. Long-term unemployment rises. Less inequality in the wage distribution is obtained at the expense of more inequality in the distribution of unemployment.     

Einige numerische Untersuchungen auf Grund der kollektiven Risikotheorie

Abstract

Wir gehen nun zu einem Bericht betreffs der Berechnungen über, die unter Annahme einer Maximierung des Versicherungsbetrages (Methode 2, Seite 93) und zur Bestimmung der Wahrscheinlichkeitszahl φ₁ gemacht worden sind.     

Das Spannungsverhältnis von Unklarheitenregel und Transparenzgebot — insbesondere bei Allgemeinen Versicherungsbedingungen

The text deals with the relation of § 305c Abs. 2 BGB (contra proferentem rule) and § 307 Abs. 1 S. 2 BGB (transparency control) especially in terms and conditions of insurance contracts. The author demonstrates that the contra proferentem rule is a special rule for ambiguous standard terms and conditions that is of higher priority than the transparency control.     

MULTIPLE EVENT INCIDENCE AND DURATION ANALYSIS FOR CREDIT DATA INCORPORATING NON‐STOCHASTIC LOAN MATURITY

Applications of duration analysis in economics and finance exclusively employ methods for events of stochastic duration. In application to credit data, previous research incorrectly treats the time to predetermined maturity events as censored stochastic event times. The medical literature has binary parametric ‘cure rate’ models that deal with populations that never experienced the modelled event. We propose and develop a multinomial parametric incidence and duration model, incorporating such populations. In the class of cure rate models, this is the first fully parametric multinomial model and is the first framework to accommodate an event with predetermined duration. The methodology is applied to unsecured personal loan credit data provided by one of Australia's largest financial services organizations. This framework is shown to be more flexible and predictive through a simulation and empirical study that reveals: simulation results of estimated parameters with a large reduction in bias; superior forecasting of duration; explanatory variables can act in different directions upon incidence and duration; and variables exist that are statistically significant in explaining only incidence or duration. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Current Foresight Activities inCentral Europe

During the early 1990s, technology foresight has become much more widespread. First pioneered in the United States and later in Japan, it has now spread to continental Europe. One of the first engagements in modern national foresight occurred in the Netherlands. The task is to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest socio-economic benefits. The decentralized foresight approaches are less holistic than elsewhere and are concerned with selected areas. In Germany, parallel approaches have been adopted for looking systematically into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy, and society. In an era characterized by ever fiercer global economic competition, and with the burden of unifying two different science systems and over-stretched public expenditure budgets, the German governments on federal and state levels and indeed the public are coming to expect more direct economic and social benefits from science in return to their investment. Decentralized types of foresight are also observed in Austria, whereas in Hungary the first attempts to arrive at a foresight program seem to be modelled after British experiences.     

Mehr Sozialprodukt mit weniger Energie: Es gibt nichts umsonst!

Economic growth guarantees prosperity and employment. In the interest of climate protection Germany is also aiming to significantly reduce its energy consumption. The Federal Government is committed to increase the real gross domestic product by 26 % between 2006 and 2020 and to reduce primary energy consumption in the same period by 17 %. Although long-term economic growth is possible with falling energy consumption, it does imply changes: structural changes and investments, which will initially require funding. In a simple model, it can be shown that the government’s ?hyper-decoupling“ of economic growth from energy demand will lead to an increase in the overall expenditure resulting from energy consumption between 2006 and 2020 of more than 60 % (the optimistic scenario) or 150 % (the less optimistic scenario). The accelerated use of modern energy technologies can help to set in motion the desired process to protect the environment and, at the same time, limit the resulting burden on the consumer. Here the intensified support of research and development of modern technologies will play an important role.     

The Sickness Experience of the Valkyrian Insurance Company, 1929-48

Abstract

1. Introduction.