如何利用CDS市场数据拟合不同存活率模型

信贷衍生工具评估的关键要素是违约时间模型。此类事件隐含的不确定性通过违约概率分布（也称为违约期限结构）模型获取,此模型对发行人在未来给定时间间隔内的违约概率进行建模。违约概率估算具有不同的类型：历史违约概率采用公司的信用等级转换或评分模型进行估算;结构模型综合市场以及资产负债表信息来计算违约概率;风险中性概率采用简化模型通过单纯的市场数据进行推导。     

Testing the sufficiency of the theory of planned behavior: a case of customer dissatisfaction responses in restaurants

This study tested the sufficiency of both the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the extended TPB models by adding the variable of past behavior. In addition, the present study examined the mediating role of the TPB variables on the relationships between past behavior and customers’ intentions to engage in different types of dissatisfaction responses (i.e., voice, negative word-of-mouth communication, and exit). Results of the study demonstrated the strong predictive power of the original TPB mode but the inclusion of past behavior did not significantly improve the predictability of the three dissatisfaction response intentions. Furthermore, the mediating analyses indicated that the influence of past behavior was mediated by TPB variables. In the contexts of negative word-of-mouth communication, the effect of past behavior on intention was mediated by attitude. Meanwhile, both subjective norm and perceived behavioral control mediated the relationship between past behavior and the intention to engage in voice behavior.     

On the Equivalence of Ad Valorem Tariffs and Specific Tariffs under Duopoly*

Using a quantity conjectural variation model, this paper examines whether an ad valorem tariff and a specific tariff are equivalent under duopoly. We show that if the average per‐unit import tax is the same for the two tariffs, domestic output will be smaller while foreign output will be larger under an ad valorem tariff. We further show that for any value of a specific tariff, there is a Pareto‐superior ad valorem tariff for all values of conjectural variation except in the case of perfect competition where the two tariffs are equivalent.     

A Markov‐Switching Model Of Gnp Growth With Duration Dependence*

A Markov‐switching model of postwar quarterly real GNP growth is used to examine the duration dependence of business cycles. It extends the Hamilton model and the duration‐dependent model of Durland and McCurdy, and compares quite favorably to simpler models in out‐of‐sample forecasting. When an expansion begins, the probability of the expansion ending is 0.2, but it gradually decreases as the expansion ages. When a contraction begins, the probability of the contraction terminating is 0.07, but it increases rapidly as the contraction ages. Output growth slows over the course of an expansion. The hypothesis of the 7–10‐year cycle is not supported.     

Discrimination in hiring against immigrants and ethnic minorities: the effect of unionization

There has been a long debate concerning whether unions are exclusive or inclusive with respect to immigrants and ethnic minorities. In the exclusive view of unions, unionization is expected to increase the likelihood of employers asking questions that discriminate against immigrants and ethnic minorities and decrease the likelihood of employers asking Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO) questions related to immigrant or ethnic minority status. The contrary is expected for the inclusive view. Our analysis, using New Zealand data for job applications, provides some support for the inclusive view of unions, as the higher the unionization rate, the more likely EEO information is sought, but no relationship is found between unionization rate and discriminatory questioning. This suggests that unions are probably helpful in promoting diversity but not yet in combating discrimination against immigrants and ethnic minorities in hiring.     

Design of a rail transit line for profit maximization in a linear transportation corridor

This paper addresses the design problem of a rail transit line located in a linear urban transportation corridor. The service variables designed are a combination of rail line length, number and locations of stations, headway and fare. Two profit maximization models, which account for the effects of different transit pricing structures (flat and distance-based fare regimes), are proposed. In the proposed models, the effects of passenger demand elasticity and population density along the urban corridor are explicitly considered. The solution properties of the proposed models are explored and compared analytically, and the indifference condition for the two fare regimes in terms of the operator’s net profit is identified. A heuristic solution algorithm to solve the proposed models is presented. Numerical examples are provided to show the effects of the fare regimes, rail capital cost and urban configuration (in terms of urban population distribution and corridor length) on the design of the rail transit line and the profitability of the rail transit operations.     

Coping with Job Insecurity: The Role of Procedural Justice, Ethical Leadership and Power Distance Orientation

This study examines the relationship between procedural justice and employee job insecurity, and the boundary conditions of this relationship. Drawing upon uncertainty management theory and ethical leadership research, we hypothesized that procedural justice is negatively related to job insecurity, and that this relationship is moderated by ethical leadership. We further predicted that the moderating relationship would be more pronounced among employees with a low power distance orientation. We tested our hypotheses using a sample of 381 workers in Macau and Southern China. The results support all of our hypotheses. The implications of these results for research and practice are discussed.     

The firm information environment and capital structure: international evidence

This article investigates the effect of the firm information environment, characterized by the analyst characteristics, on firms’ capital structure choices and whether this effect varies according to country-level institutional environments. Using a comprehensive international data set that covers 19 939 firms across 41 countries between 2000 and 2010, we document two key findings. First, firms with lower analyst coverage, higher forecast dispersion and higher forecast errors have higher leverage. Second, the effect of the firm information environment on corporate leverage is attenuated in countries with stronger governance mechanism and better information transparency. This result suggests that a firm’s information environment is an important factor influencing its capital structure decision and that country-level institutional environments matter to this effect.     

Confidence intervals for maximal reliability in tau‐equivalent models

Subjective probabilities play an important role in marketing research, for example where individuals rate the likelihood that they will purchase a new developed product. The tau‐equivalent model can describe the joint behaviour of multiple test items measuring the same subjective probability. In this paper we stress the use of confidence intervals to assess reliability, as this allows for a more critical assessment of the items as measurement instruments. To improve the reliability one can use a weighted sum as the outcome of the test rather than an unweighted sum. In principle, the weights may be chosen so as to obtain maximal reliability. We propose two new confidence intervals for the maximal reliability in the tau‐equivalent model and we compare these two new intervals with intervals derived earlier in Yuan and Bentler (Psychometrika, 67 , 2002, 251) and Raykov and Penev (Multivariate Behavioral Research, 41 , 2006, 15). The comparison involves coverage curves, a methodology that is new in the field of reliability. The existing Yuan–Bentler and Raykov–Penev intervals are shown to overestimate the maximal reliability, whereas one of our proposed intervals, the stable interval, performs very well. This stable interval hardly shows any bias, and has a coverage for the true value which is approximately equal to the confidence level.