Evaluating currency crises: the case of the European monetary system

In this paper we examine the nature of currency crises. We ascertain whether the currency crises of the European Monetary System (EMS) were based either on fundamentals, or on self-fulfilling market expectations driven by extrinsic uncertainty. In particular, we extend previous work of Jeanne and Masson (J Int Econ 50:327–350, 2000) regarding the evaluation of currency crisis. We contribute to the existing literature proposing the use of Markov regime-switching with time-varying transition probability model. Our empirical results suggest that the currency crises of the EMS were not due only to market expectations driven by external uncertainty, or ‘sunspots’, but also to fundamental variables that help to explain the behavior of market expectations. We would like to thank Joseph Byrne, James Mitchell, Martin Weale and two anonymous referees for very useful comments and suggestions.     

Production Structure, Technical Change, and Productivity Growth in Albanian Agriculture

This paper analyzes the production structure, technical change, and total factor productivity of Albanian agriculture during the postwar period. Albanian agriculture faced severe structural problems such as limited economies of scale, labor-using technical change, decreasing partial factor (land and labor) productivities, and slow growth of total factor productivity. Agricultural development in Albania was based mainly on input increases, which accounted for almost 90% of output growth. Consequently, the economic crisis appearing since 1990 is not due only to the adjustment process toward a market economy but has also been affected by the postwar agricultural development strategy.     

Back to basics: The Comanor–Wilson MES index revisited

The present article attempts to investigate the validity of the Comanor–Wilson Minimum Efficient Size (MES) measure. The basic assumption is that firms that have exhausted scale economies are in non-increasing returns to scale. The same firms are also assumed to have a size greater than MES estimated on sales (total turnover), employment or fixed assets. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used, on a sample of firms in three Greek manufacturing industries, to classify firms in operation according to increasing or non-increasing returns to scale. On the basis of the results of the DEA input oriented model, the MES measure correctly predicts over 85% of the cases. A probit model is applied to those cases that are not identically predicted by MES concerning returns to scale. Results indicate that technical efficiency, size and age are the factors that compel MES to yield the same prediction as the DEA approach.

Are cooperatives the weakest link in European banking? A non-parametric metafrontier approach

This paper investigates the productive performance of cooperative banking firms as compared to their commercial and savings counterparts, accounting for technology heterogeneity due to different ownership in European banking. Based on the metafrontier notion, we introduce a methodology which allows the identification of technology gaps among different bank types and their decomposition into input- and output-invariant components. Our findings suggest that the type-specific frontier corresponding to cooperative banking firms lies, to its largest part, away from the European metafrontier. Furthermore, within the cooperative bank type a dichotomy seems to arise. The decomposition results suggest that the cooperatives’ technology gap is attributed to output production rather than input use.     

Financial Depth and the Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy

This paper investigates the importance of financial depth in evaluating the asymmetric impact of monetary policy on real output over the course of the US business cycle. We show that monetary policy has a significant impact on output growth during recessions. We also show that financial deepening plays an important role by dampening the effects of monetary policy shocks in recessions. The results are robust to the use of alternative financial depth and monetary policy shock measures as well as to two different sample periods.     

Accounting and prudential regulation: from uncomfortable bedfellows to perfect partners?

Recent initiatives to improve the public information about individual firms have brought to the fore significant differences in perspective between accountants and prudential regulators. We examine the reasons for these differences and propose ways in which they could be reconciled within a broader framework aimed at identifying the type of information conducive to the proper functioning and stability of the financial system. We argue that such information should concern three characteristics: estimates of current financial condition; estimates of risk profile; and measures of the uncertainty surrounding those estimates. So far, efforts have mainly focused on the first characteristic, with the second having drawn attention only recently and the third having been largely neglected. We propose a strategy to reconcile different perspectives based on two principles: first, in the long-term, the “decoupling” of the objective of accurate financial reporting by the firm from that of instilling the desired degree of prudence in its behaviour; second, a “parallel transition” process towards that objective so that at all points the prudential measures can neutralise any undesirable implications of changes in financial reporting standards on financial stability.     

Backtesting Derivative Portfolios with Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS)

Filtered historical simulation provides the general framework to our backtests of portfolios of derivative securities held by a large sample of financial institutions. We allow for stochastic volatility and exchange rates. Correlations are preserved implicitly by our simulation procedure. Options are repriced at each node. Overall results support the adequacy of our framework, but our VaR numbers are too high for swap portfolios at long horizons and too low for options and futures portfolios at short horizons.     

The Euro: Reflections on the first three years

In the first three years of its (virtual) existence, the euro has seen a general decline in its value (notably against the dollar). In this paper we look at this issue and reflect on the implications of the decline for the future of the euro.The paper begins by briefly reviewing some of the explanations that have been put forward for the weakness of the euro, which might be seen as temporary factors or factors that do not arise from the creation of the eurozone per se. These explanations include the decline in the value of the euro as being a reaction to previous rises, interest rate differentials as favouring the dollar and the decline in the euro as being the obverse of a rise in the value of the dollar reflecting the strength of the US economy. These explanations are found to be unconvincing, and the view is advanced that there are serious weaknesses within the eurozone itself and in the construction of the eurosystem, along with its operation, that could be undermining the value of the euro. The divergent euro area may be one of the more significant factors contributing to the euro decline.     

Regime Dependent Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Real Growth: A Markov Switching Approach

We empirically investigate the effects of inflation uncertainty on output growth for the United States between 1960 and 2012. Modeling output dynamics within a Markov regime switching framework, we provide evidence that inflation uncertainty exerts a negative and regime‐dependent impact on output growth. A battery of sensitivity checks confirm our findings.