Media,sentiment and market performance in the long run

This paper investigates the impact of media pessimism on financial market returns and volatility in the long run. We hypothesize that media sentiment translates into investor sentiment. Based on the underreaction and overreaction hypotheses [Barberis, N., A. Shleifer, and R. Vishny. 1998. “A Model of Investor Sentiment.” Journal of Empirical Economics 49 (3): 307–343], we suggest that media pessimism has an effect on market performance after a lag of several months. We construct a monthly media pessimism indicator by taking the ratio of the number of newspaper articles that contain predetermined negative words to the number of newspaper articles that contain predetermined positive words in the headline and in the lead paragraph. Our results indicate that media pessimism is associated with negative (positive) market returns 14–17 (24–25) months in advance and positive market volatilities 1–20 months in advance. Our results are statistically and economically significant. We find evidence for Granger causality of media pessimism on market performance. Our media pessimism indicator possesses additional predictive power for the Baker and Wurgler [2006. “Investor Sentiment and the Cross-section of Stock Returns.” Journal of Finance 61 (4): 1645–1680] investor sentiment index and the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index.     

Reliability and relevance of fair values: private equity investments and investee fundamentals

Review of Accounting Studies - We directly test the reliability and relevance of investee fair values reported by listed private equity funds (LPEs). In our setting, disaggregated fair value...     

Ex post unbalanced tournaments

Tournaments create strong incentives under the assumption that the competition between the agents is balanced. If, at the outset, one agent is stronger than the other, the tournament is ex ante unbalanced and incentives break down. Handicaps can in this case restore incentives. In practice, competing agents are often overall equally strong but have different sorts of strengths. Then, competition will typically be unbalanced ex post and incentives break down, but handicaps cannot be used. We show how a simple means, introducing the possibility of a tie, can often resolve the problem. We examine under what conditions incentives are maximized by ties.     

Credit cycles and macro fundamentals

We use an intensity-based framework to study the relation between macroeconomic fundamentals and cycles in defaults and rating activity. Using Standard and Poor's U.S. corporate rating transition and default data over the period 1980–2005, we directly estimate the default and rating cycle from micro data. We relate this cycle to the business cycle, bank lending conditions, and financial market variables. In line with earlier studies, the macro variables appear to explain part of the default cycle. However, we strongly reject the correct dynamic specification of these models. The problem is solved by adding an unobserved dynamic component to the model, which can be interpreted as an omitted systematic credit risk factor. By accounting for this latent factor, many of the observed macro variables loose their significance. There are a few exceptions, but the economic impact of the observed macro variables for credit risk remains low. We also show that systematic credit risk factors differ over transition types, with risk factors for downgrades being noticeably different from those for upgrades. We conclude that portfolio credit risk models based only on observable systematic risk factors omit one of the strongest determinants of credit risk at the portfolio level. This has obvious consequences for current modeling and risk management practices.     

Introverts abroad? Long-term visitors' adaptations to the multicultural tourism context of Costa Blanca,Spain

Many people from North-Western Europe have quite long stays in Mediterranean Spain, partly related to phenomena such as ‘wintering’, seasonal movements and sabbatical holidays, for the most part dwelling in their own houses or apartments. This paper explores intercultural relations of long-term visitors and it raises some questions on differentiation and dedifferentiation in the consolidated holidaymaking context of Costa Blanca (Alicante, Spain). The paper includes visitors' assessments of certain central aspects of their (temporary) life in Spain, based on an exit survey. It is revealed that long-term visitors have far more varied and wide-ranging adjustments to their new and/or temporary surroundings than is usually assumed in news media and in some previous scholarly works. The study also demonstrates that generalised views depicting long-term visitors as secluded and living predominantly in compatriot enclaves are too simple, especially in long-established holiday destination areas. A considerable proportion of long-term visitors make an effort to relate to the language, culture, and social conditions of the host society. It is argued that a more nuanced and complex analysis is needed in order to describe the varied life situations of sojourners and other long-term visitors in Mediterranean Spain.     

Consistency ofs 2 in the linear regression model with correlated errors

We give a simple sufficient condition for consistency of the standard OLS-based estimate of the disturbance variance in the linear regression model with autocorrelated disturbances.Research supported by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG). We are grateful to B. M. Poetscher for a generous supply of counterexamples.     

Approximation of forward curve models in commodity markets with arbitrage-free finite-dimensional models

In this paper, we show how to approximate Heath–Jarrow–Morton dynamics for the forward prices in commodity markets with arbitrage-free models which have a finite-dimensional state space. Moreover, we recover a closed-form representation of the forward price dynamics in the approximation models and derive the rate of convergence to the true dynamics uniformly over an interval of time to maturity under certain additional smoothness conditions. In the Markovian case, we can strengthen the convergence to be uniform over time as well. Our results are based on the construction of a convenient Riesz basis on the state space of the term structure dynamics.     

Risk aversion under preference uncertainty

We show that if an agent is uncertain about the precise form of his utility function, his actual relative risk aversion may depend on wealth even if he knows his utility function lies in the class of constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility functions. We illustrate the consequences of this result for optimal asset allocation: poor agents that are uncertain about their risk aversion parameter invest less in risky assets than wealthy investors with identical risk aversion uncertainty.     

Doing good deeds in times of need: a strategic perspective on corporate disaster donations

Major corporations often respond charitably in times of disaster. However, disasters can also impose nontrivial costs on firms themselves, and under adverse conditions, firms typically donate less, not more. This paper takes a strategic perspective on corporate magnanimity in times of crisis by looking at the relationship between firm value, reputation, and donations by U.S. Fortune 500 firms in the case of Hurricane Katrina. In general, we find that Katrina's landfall was associated with significant negative abnormal stock returns. In particular, we find that a reputation for social irresponsibility was associated with both the greatest drop in stock prices and the greatest likelihood of making a subsequent charitable donation in response to the disaster. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.