Note Short-term predictability of German stock returns

The paper investigates short-horizon individual stock returns; it exhibits statistically and economically significant autocorrelations, which for stock returns have so far been established mainly over long horizons, also for certain daily data, in particular between monday returns and various linear combinations of the previous week's returns.Research supported by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG); I am grateful to Ralf Runde for preparing the data and to Gerd Ronning and an anonymous referee for helpful criticism and comments.     

Professionalisierungs- und Entwicklungsstrategien für ein innovatives Personalmanagement

Based on the fact of an increasing dynamic and complexity of environmental changes organizations are confronted with huge challenges not least concerning Human Resource Management (HRM). Therefore the present paper deals with the concrete arrangement of the HRM of organizations in a situation like those described. Starting with the results of an empirical study, different orientations of HRM could be discovered in the organizations reviewed. Three types of organizations were found. Depending on these types HRM instruments are emphasized differently as to competency development inside the organization. The types can be described as follow: 1^st the personal appraisal type, 2^nd the personnel planning type and 3^rd the personnel selection type. Taking this differentiation as a starting point, divergent preferences in the frequencies of usage and the evaluation of HRM instruments can be assessed. Potentials and thresholds of organizational learning in HRM are discussed finally against the background of this knowledge.     

Delegation and incentives

This article analyzes the relation between authority and incentives. It extends the standard principal‐agent model by a project selection stage in which the principal can either delegate the choice of project to the agent or keep the authority. The agent's subsequent choice of effort depends both on monetary incentives and the selected project. We find that the consideration of effort incentives makes the principal less likely to delegate the authority over projects to the agent. In fact, if the agent is protected by limited liability, delegation is never optimal.     

Anticipated regret as an explanation of uncertainty aversion

The paper provides a psychological explanation of uncertainty aversion based on the fear of regret. We capture an agent’s regret using a reference-dependent utility function in which the agent’s utility depends on the performance of his chosen option relative to the performance of the option that would have been best ex post. An uncertain option is represented as a compound lottery. The basic idea is that selecting a compound lottery reveals information, which alters the ex post assessment of what the best choice would have been, inducing regret. We provide sufficient conditions under which regret implies uncertainty aversion in the sense of quasi-concave preferences over compound lotteries.     

Bereichernd oder belanglos?

Although participatory press photography has existed for decades, its institutionalization by tabloid journalism is a relatively new phenomenon. The most popular example in Germany is constituted by the “reader reporters” of the tabloid newspaper Bild. Supporters of participatory press photography hope for an enrichment of news coverage while its critics consider the photos as insignificant. This paper tries to clarify this controversy on the basis of news value theory. It presents the results of a census of reader reporter photographs and their adjacent articles. This paper tries to answer the question of whether selection and prominence of the photographs is oriented toward societal or individual relevance. It can be shown that selection is dominated by “soft” news factors while prominence is mainly influenced by “hard” news factors. The latter are also attributed to the photographs via the adjacent text. The results can be transferred to other forms of participatory journalism. They support the hypothesis of a complementary rather than competitive relation between participatory and professional journalism.     

Geroski's Stylized Facts and Mobility of Large German Manufacturing Firms

Paul Geroski has established two stylized facts with respect to theprevalence of differential changes (mobility) of indicators ofeconomic and technological performance: technologicalindicators show a larger amount of mobility than do economic indicators.We assess the two stylized facts for a sample of 392 large Germanfirms observed over the period 1981–1993 and assigned to elevenmanufacturing industries. We analyze these data with two novelmethods, Salter curves and mobility indices based on fractileMarkov chains. Our analysis supports Geroski's two stylized factsin the case of large German manufacturing firms taking account ofsectoral differences.     

Firm survival in the German automobile industry

In this paper, methods of duration analysis are applied to investigate determinants of firm survival in the German automobile industry during the period 1886–1939. A new comprehensive data set has been assembled in order to secure data comparable to that for the US automobile industry. Our results show that the forces shaping the survival pattern of firms over the life cycle are quite similar in both countries, i.e. early entry in the life cycle and prior experience are associated with a lower risk of exit. This finding holds equally when parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric methods are applied.We thank the participants of the 10th conference of the International Schumpeter Society in Milan, June 2004, and the 31st EARIE conference in Berlin, September 2004, for helpful discussion. We also thank two anonymous referees for their comments. All remaining errors are in our responsibility.     

Errata

Ohne Zusammenfassung The online version of the original article can be found at     

Problematik der Fülle

Ohne Zusammenfassung