Trade, investment and growth: nexus, analysis and prognosis

Patterns of causation between income, export, import and investment growth for 39 developing countries are examined using model selection techniques which are based on ex ante predictive ability criteria to identify the best predictive model for each country. In particular, we look at the incidence of causation and reverse causation between various economic variables which are commonly believed to lead economic growth and find that there is less reverse causation from income to these variables than previously thought. We also construct an index of global business cycle conditions and find that models of countries with high trade exposure, growth rates and investment rates tend to gain in predictive ability from the addition of this variable.     

Portfolio Selection and Optimization with Higher Moments: Evidence from the Indian Stock Market

The Markowitz portfolio optimization model, popularly known as the Mean-Variance model, assumes that stockreturns follow normal distribution. But when stock returns do not follow normal distribution, this model wouldbe inadequate as it would prescribe sub-optimal portfolios. Stock market literature often deliberates that stock returns are non-normal. In such context the Markowitz model would not be sufficient to estimate the portfolio risks. The purpose of this paper is to expand the original Markowitz portfolio theory (mean-variance) via adding the higher order moments like skewness (third moment about the mean) and kurtosis (fourth moment about the mean) in the return characteristics. The research paper investigates the impact of including higher moments using multi-objective programming model for portfolio stock selection and optimization. The empirical results indicate that the inclusion of higher moments had a considerable impact in estimating the returns behavior of portfolios. The portfolios optimized using all the four moments, generated higher returns for the given level of risk in comparison to the returns of the Markowitz model during the study period 2000–2011. The results of this study would be immensely useful to fund managers, portfolio managers and investors as it would help them in understanding the Indian stock market behavior better and also in selecting alternative portfolio selection models.     

If at First You Don't Succeed…: Profits,Prices, and Market Structure in a Model of Quality with Unknowable Consumer Heterogeneity*

Why are higher quality niches seen as intrinsically more profitable in business circles? Why do high quality products sometimes have a low real price, whereas it is unusual to see low quality products with high real prices? Can markets have quality differentiation as well as quality bunching? How does the rate at which fixed costs change with quality affect market structure? In this article we develop a new model of quality that casts light on such issues.     

Unbalanced growth

Abstract.  We study a model designed to understand the concept of unbalanced growth. We define leading sectors to be those that raise the profits from industrialization for other sectors the most. We identify the leading sectors and show that subsidizing them in sequence will raise welfare if the future is not discounted too strongly.     

Strategies that fit emerging markets

It's no easy task to identify strategies for entering new international markets or to decide which countries to do business with. Many firms simply go with what they know-and fall far short of their goals. Part of the problem is that emerging markets have "institutional voids": They lack specialized intermediaries, regulatory systems, and contract-enforcing methods. These gaps have made it difficult for multinationals to succeed in developing nations; thus, many companies have resisted investing there. That may be a mistake. If Western companies don't come up with good strategies for engaging with emerging markets, they are unlikely to remain competitive. Many firms choose their markets and strategies for the wrong reasons, relying on everything from senior managers' gut feelings to the behaviors of rivals. Corporations also depend on composite indexes for help making decisions. But these analyses can be misleading; they don't account for vital information about the soft infrastructures in developing nations. A better approach is to understand institutional variations between countries. The best way to do this, the authors have found, is by using the five contexts framework. The five contexts are a country's political and social systems, its degree of openness, its product markets, its labor markets, and its capital markets. By asking a series of questions that pertain to each ofthe five areas, executives can map the institutional contexts of any nation. When companies match their strategies to each country's contexts, they can take advantage of a location's unique strengths. But first firms should weigh the benefits against the costs. If they find that the risks of adaptation are too great, they should try to change the contexts in which they operate or simply stay away.     

增长与分配的非正统模型: 对公司高管与金融资本家的分析

有关收入分配与经济增长的非正统模型一般只考虑工人与资本家这两个阶级,但是近期围绕不平等问题的讨论开始关注由工资不平等和高收入人群财富增加所带来的收入分配变化。为了分析这些因素,本文建立了两个分别遵循古典—马克思主义和后凯恩斯—卡莱斯基主义的简单模型,讨论存在这样两类人时——一类是拥有资本的生产工人,另一类是公司高管、金融资本家和传统意义上的资本家——的收入分配的变化由哪些因素决定,又会对经济增长产生什么影响。     

Trade and trade policy with differentiated products: A Chamberlinian – Ricardian model. A comment

Abstract

This paper shows that the results of Venables (1987 Venables, A. 1987. Trade and trade policy with differentiated products: a Chamberlinian – Ricardian model. The Economic Journal, 97: 700–717. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) depend critically on the assumption that there are no fixed costs of trade. The introduction of fixed costs of exporting, while making the model more consistent with the empirical evidence, leads to the opposite conclusion that technological progress in one country cannot harm the welfare of its trading partner. However, the results can be obtained in a richer setting with heterogeneous firms.     

Pricing of mall services in the presence of sales leakage

For a shopping mall, sales leakage occurs when consumer purchases facilitated by the mall are finalized outside it. These sales include, for example, catalog orders filled at the leased premises in a physical mall; For an Internet mall, they include the ones consumers make on an on-line store’s website after learning about the store from an Internet mall website. While these sales are difficult to track in the physical mall, Internet malls like Yahoo can track them by placing cookies on consumers when they visit the mall. The challenge for a mall owner then is to design an appropriate pricing model which takes sales leakage into account. In fact, Yahoo currently uses an All-Revenue-Share Fee with Yahoo collecting from on-line stores a share of all sales revenue, regardless of whether the purchase was made through the mall or directly from the store’s own URL. We explore this new All-Revenue-Share Fee model, compare it with the commonly used Fixed Fee model and the two-part tariff model, and identify the model with the highest profits for the mall under different conditions. We suggest that although an All-Revenue-Share Fee is appealing for Internet malls due to its ability to capture sales leakage directly, it may cause the stores to refrain from joining the mall in certain circumstances. Thus, in certain situations charging a fixed monthly fee can actually be more profitable for the mall versus the All-Revenue-Share Fee model. We also examine how mall and product category characteristics as well as market expansion affect the optimal pricing strategy. We show that a mall should price discriminate across product categories, not just by charging different amounts of fees, but by using different pricing models. Our research provides many managerial implications on how to price over time.     

Experiments on strategic choices and markets

Much of experimental research in marketing has focused on individual choices. Yet in many contexts, the outcomes of one’s choices depend on the choices of others. Furthermore, the results obtained in individual decision making context may not be applicable to these strategic choices. In this paper, we discuss three avenues for further advancing our understanding of strategic choices. First, there is a need to develop theories about how people learn to play strategic games. Second, there is an opportunity to enrich standard economic models of strategic behavior by allowing for different types of bounded rationality and by relaxing assumptions about utility formulation. These new models can help us to more accurately predict strategic choices. Finally, future research can improve marketing practice by designing better mechanisms and validating them using experiments.