Minimizing the Probability of Lifetime Ruin under Random Consumption

Abstract

We determine the optimal investment strategy in a financial market for an individual whose random consumption is correlated with the price of a risky asset. Bayraktar and Young consider this problem and show that the minimum probability of lifetime ruin is the unique convex, smooth solution of its corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. In this paper we focus on determining the probability of lifetime ruin and the corresponding optimal investment strategy. We obtain approximations for the probability of lifetime ruin for small values of certain parameters and demonstrate numerically that they are reasonable ones. We also obtain numerical results in cases for which those parameters are not small.     

Contextualizing the Intermediate Financial Accounting Courses in the Global Financial Crisis

This paper represents an attempt to incorporate concepts and issues stemming from the global financial crisis (GFC) into the typical Intermediate Accounting, two-course sequence as taught in North American colleges and universities. The teaching approach which the authors advocate embeds the GFC throughout these courses. The main expected outcome from this project is a greater appreciation on the part of the accounting and finance majors that other business disciplines ‘matter.’ Put differently, those disciplines, including economics, banking, and management, interface with accounting and finance. Therefore, to understand accounting, students must be conversant with the other disciplines. The principal interrelating concepts we cover in this approach are as follows: capital maintenance, liquidity, solvency, financial leverage, efficient market hypothesis, transparency in disclosure, derivatives, fair valuation, moral hazard, and ethics.

Editor's Note : The continuing repercussions of the GFC were felt on the day when the final version of this paper was submitted (8 August 2011) due to Standard & Poor's downgrading the credit rating of the USA for the first time ever (from AAA to AA+) and this, coupled with problems relating to financial stability across the Eurozone, triggered huge falls on stock markets throughout the world.     

Problems and challenges in social marketing

This article reviews the problems that arise when general marketing principles are applied to social programs. Social marketing is conceptualized as the design, implementation, and control of programs seeking to increase the acceptability of a social ideal or practice in a target group. These problems can occur in 8 basic decision-making areas: market analysis, market segmentation, product strategy development, pricing strategy development, channel strategy development, communications strategy development, organizational design and planning, and evaluation. Social marketers find that they have less good secondary data about their consumers, more problems obtaining valid and reliable measures of relevant variables, more difficulty sorting out the relative influence of determinants of consumer behavior, and more problems getting consumer research funded than marketers in the commercial sector. They tend to have less flexibility in shaping their products and more difficulty formulating product concepts. Problems associated with establishing, utilizing, and controlling distribution channels comprise another major difference between social and more conventional forms of marketing. Social marketers also find that their communications options are somewhat limited as a result of problems associated with use of paid advertisements, pressures not to use certain types of appeals in their messages, and the need to communicate large amounts of information in their messages. Moreover, social marketers must function in organizations where marketing activities are poorly understood, underappreciated, and inappropriately located. Finally, they face problems trying to define effectiveness measures or estimating the contribution their program has made toward the achievement of certain objectives. If all these problems are anticipated and handled creatively, social marketing efforts can succeed.     

THE ECONOMICS OF MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE

This article examines the generation and management of municipalsolid waste through the lens of economics. The authors estimatethat the global burden of municipal solid waste amounted to1.3 billion metric tons in 1990, or two-thirds of a kilogramof waste per person per day. Industrial countries account fora disproportionately high share of the world's waste relativeto their share of world population, while developing countriesaccount for a disproportionately high share of the world's wasterelative to their share of world income. Analyses across countriesand over time reveal that the generation of municipal solidwaste is positively related to variations in per capita incomeand that the generation of municipal solid waste per capitadoes not vary with population size among countries with comparableper capita income. Practices for collecting, processing, and disposing of municipalsolid waste vary widely across countries, generally in accordwith the nature of the waste stream and key environmental andeconomic features. The least efficient practices tend to befound in developing countries, creating serious threats to localenvironmental quality and public health. Although considerableevidence indicates that the generation and management of wasteis sensitive to income and price variables, natural incentivesto overuse common property and the presence of inter- generationalexternalities both suggest that private economic behavior willnot yield socially optimal outcomes in this area. Communityintervention may be needed to promote the social good, withevidence accumulating in support of arrangements involving theparticipation of private firms. The authors' calculations alsosuggest that improvements made now in the handling of hazardouswaste will be far less expensive in discounted terms than undoingin the future the damage being caused by current practices.Addressing these issues from a rational societal perspectivewill become increasingly urgent in the future, especially inthe developing countries, where the authors project that municipalsolid waste will increase at an annual rate of 2.7 percent throughthe year 2010.      

Property tax revaluation and tax levy growth

Jurisdiction-wide property revaluation, like many administrative reforms, may have unintended consequences. This paper examines one such potential consequence. By pooling 18-year time series for each of 39 Massachusetts cities (17 of which revalued) and 270 Massachusetts towns (202 of which revalued), we examine the hypothesis that politicians take advantage of the confusion generated by revaluation and raise property taxes by more than they otherwise would have. We observe such a response in cities but not in towns and attribute this difference to differences in their governmental structures.     

A reading list for Bill Gates--and you. A conversation with literary critic Harold Bloom. Interview by Diane L. Coutu

In today's technology-driven world, who has time to pick up a 400-page novel? Most executives don't--they have urgent e-mails to answer, training seminars to attend, meetings to lead, and trade publications to scan. But according to Harold Bloom, one of America's most influential scholars, they should make time in their hectic schedules to read great works. In a wide-ranging conversation with HBR senior editor Diane Coutu, Bloom discusses the importance of literature: every individual--regardless of profession--needs to stretch his or her mind and reflect now and again on the human condition. "By reading great imaginative literature, you can prepare yourself for surprise and even get a kind of strength that welcomes and exploits the unexpected," he says. Because there are so many great works and there is so little time, Bloom presents a reading list for busy executives. Shakespeare's King Lear can teach businesspeople about change. Ralph Waldo Emerson's essays capture the ethos of the American spirit--individualism and inventiveness. Bloom says Sigmund Freud's conceptions "form the only Western mythology that contemporary intellectuals have in common." And people will never fully understand some aspects of themselves until they read Miguel de Cervantes's Don Quixote. In short, Bloom believes the humanities have much to offer businesspeople: great books broaden their awareness and their range of sensibility, he says. But reading literature will not make businesspeople more moral, he cautions. Bloom also discusses other topics such as how to read well, the state of popular fiction, the role of irony, and the subject of change.     

Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia

The demographic transition—a change from high to low ratesof mortality and fertility—has been more dramatic in EastAsia during the twentieth century than in any other region orhistorical period. By introducing demographic variables intoan empirical model of economic growth, this article shows thatthis transition has contributed substantially to East Asia'sso-called economic miracle. The miracle occurred in part becauseEast Asia's demographic transition resulted in its working-agepopulation growing at a much faster rate than its dependentpopulation during 1965–90, thereby expanding the per capitaproductive capacity of East Asian economies. This effect wasnot inevitable; rather, it occurred because East Asian countrieshad social, economic, and political institutions and policiesthat allowed them to realize the growth potential created bythe transition. The empirical analyses indicate that populationgrowth has a purely transitional effect on economic growth;this effect operates only when the dependent and working-agepopulations are growing at different rates. These results implythat future demographic change will tend to depress growth ratesin East Asia, while it will promote more rapid economic growthin Southeast and South Asia.     

Savings and investment rates in Latin America: An error correction analysis

Using savings and investment rates from fifteen Latin and Central American countries, this study explores the possibility of a long-run relationship between saving and investment. The analysis consists of regressions unit root tests, and an error correction model developed by Jansen and Schulze (1996) and Jansen (1996). Of the 15 countries, there is evidence to substantiate capital mobility in 13 countries. For Chile and Uruguay, countries that have experienced considerable capital controls, evidence indicates the lack of capital mobility for these two countries.