State prices,liquidity, and default

We show, in a monetary exchange economy, that asset prices in a complete markets general equilibrium are a function of the supply of liquidity by the Central Bank, through its effect on default and interest rates. Two agents trade goods and nominal assets to smooth consumption across periods and future states, in the presence of cash-in-advance financing costs that have effects on real allocations. We show that higher spot interest rates reduce trade and as a result increase state prices. Hence, states of nature with higher interest rates are also states of nature with higher risk-neutral probabilities. This result, which cannot be found in a Lucas-type representative agent model, implies that the yield curve is upward sloping in equilibrium, even when short-term interest rates are fairly stable and the variance of the (macroeconomic) stochastic discount factor is 0. The risk-premium in the term structure is, therefore, a monetary-cost risk premium.     

Have Casinos Contributed to Rising Bankruptcy Rates?

This paper examines the relationship between casino gambling and bankruptcy rates in U.S. counties using a panel of U.S. county-level data from 1990 through 2005. We contribute to the literature in several ways, perhaps most notably by examining the possibility that the effect of a casino on bankruptcy may differ over the casino’s lifespan. Results confirm this possibility, indicating that the impact of casinos on bankruptcy follows a “U-shaped” curve over the life of the casino. More specifically, regression analysis indicates the existence of a casino in a county increases the bankruptcy rate by more than 9% in the first year of operation. The percentage of additional bankruptcies then decreases through the third year after the casino opens. Bankruptcy rates in casino counties then slightly fall below that of non-casino counties during the fourth through seventh years after opening, increasing once again in the eighth year and thereafter. This cycle corresponds closely to the 6 year statute of limitations period applicable to Chapter 7 bankruptcies.     

International portfolio reallocation: Diversification benefits and European monetary union

We investigate the determinants of bilateral international equity and bond portfolio reallocation across a large cross-section of countries spanning over two sample periods: 1997-2001 and 1997-2005. We find that the strongest drivers are the marginal diversification benefits arising from the pure asset component and the initial degree of underweight. This evidence suggests that global portfolio reallocations over the asset boom and bust period were determined by optimal diversification considerations. We also find that due to economic and monetary union (EMU) the weight assigned by euro area investors to investment in euro area countries increased significantly in equity and fixed income portfolios, with a trade diverting effect against the British bond market.     

Cumulative causation in the formation of a technological innovation system: The case of biofuels in the Netherlands

Despite its worldwide success, the innovation systems approach is often criticised for being theoretically underdeveloped. This paper aims to contribute to the conceptual and methodological basis of the (technological) innovation systems approach. We propose an alteration that improves the analysis of dynamics, especially with respect to emerging innovation systems. We do this by expanding on the technological innovation systems and system functions literature, and by employing the method of ‘event history analysis’. By mapping events, the interactions between system functions and their development over time can be analysed. Based on this it becomes possible to identify forms of positive feedback, i.e. cumulative causation. As an illustration of the approach, we assess the biofuels innovation system in The Netherlands as it evolved from 1990 to 2007.     

Risk management instruments for debt driven conservation efforts: The case of India's Project Tiger

Project Tiger has been India's premier case of conservation success. Since mid 1990s select Project Tiger Reserves in India were chosen for intensive funding by the Global Environment Facility, the International Development Agency (IDA) and the Government of India under the ‘India Eco-Development Project’. This project marked a modest shift towards debt based funding. The GEF Project has become a benchmark for tiger conservation in India both in terms of management outcomes and scale and scope of funding. However in the absence of large-scale budgetary support or self-generating income flows, it becomes difficult for the GEF type of project to be replicated in other tiger reserves of the country. Debt instruments hold promise as enablers of conservation finance. The paper proposes issue of ‘tiger bonds’ to meet the financial requirements of tiger reserves. Though attractive as a debt instrument, a ‘tiger bond’ could nevertheless entail interest rate and default risks.Bioprospecting activities form good revenue sources for tiger reserves to pay off their debts. However bioprospecting activities do not provide assured returns to tiger reserves. Pharmaceutical companies that prospect for genetic resources and practice ‘real options’ approach to R&D investment planning, adopt multi-phased investment systems and sequential searches that gives them the flexibility to abandon R&D projects. From the point of view of genetic resource providing entities like Project Tiger Reserves, the ‘postponement value’ generated by real options, enables a drug company to tap substitutes for the genetic resources that form the subject matter of bioprospecting contracts. To obviate possible repayment risks by tiger reserves, the paper advocates the institution of ‘put bonds’ as a risk management tool for Project Tiger Reserves in order to hedge themselves against loan defaults arising from possible loss in bioprospecting income. The paper also brings out the mechanics of the issue of tiger bonds in the Indian context. It is argued that a put bond not only hedges default risks but would also aid ‘value discovery’ and payment for ecosystem services as far as the Project Tiger Reserves of India are concerned.     

Integrated basin management: Water and food policy options for Turkey

This paper presents a basin scale analysis of the Nilüfer River Basin of Turkey, where agricultural, urban, and environmental users compete for scarce water in an environment where climate change and food security present large and growing challenges. It presents results of a basin scale dynamic nonlinear programming model that addresses economic efficiency, climate change, and food security. Its approach can be applied to other water-stressed regions operating in environments of economic and hydrologic constraints on water use. Basin scale modeling approach provides a general framework for formulating water management policies, consistent with the principles underlying the European Union Water Framework Directive.     

Why is free education so popular? A political economy explanation

This paper analyzes the political support for different funding regimes of education in a one‐person, one‐vote democracy. We focus the analysis on four systems that have had a preponderant presence in the political debate on education: a private system, a public system that delivers the same resources to each student (universal‐free education), a public system that intends to equalize results, and a public system that aims to maximize the output of the economy. We show that a system of universal free education is the Condorcet winner. The level of income inequality and the degree to which income distribution is skewed to the right are key factors behind this conclusion. We also show that the voting outcome of public versus private funding for education depends crucially on the type of public funding under consideration.     

Comprehensive assessment of patients with irritable bowel syndrome with constipation and chronic idiopathic constipation using deterministically linked administrative claims and patient-reported data: the Chronic Constipation and IBS-C Treatment and Outcomes Real-World Research Platform (CONTOR)

Abstract

Aims

To characterize a US population of patients with irritable bowel syndrome with constipation (IBS-C) or chronic idiopathic constipation (CIC) using CONTOR, a real-world longitudinal research platform that deterministically linked administrative claims data with patient-reported outcomes data among patients with these conditions.     

The impact of multinational entry on domestic market structure and investment

We model the impact of different modes of multinational entry on the choices of domestic firms. Focusing on the competitive effects of foreign entry for the host country we demonstrate that greenfield investment will increase competition only if it is not countered by anti-competitive reactions on the part of the domestic firms. Together with cross-border mergers and acquisitions the model, thus, provides two alternative explanations for the increase in concentration ratios in industries with mostly horizontal foreign direct investment. Moreover, foreign presence is shown to raise total investment in the local industry at the cost of crowding out domestic investment.     

HOME EQUITY IN RETIREMENT

Retired homeowners dissave more slowly than renters, which suggests that homeownership affects retirees' saving decisions. We investigate empirically and theoretically the life-cycle patterns of homeownership, housing, and nonhousing assets in retirement. Using an estimated structural model of saving and housing decisions, we find first that homeowners dissave slowly because they prefer to stay in their house as long as possible but cannot easily borrow against it. Second, the 1996–2006 housing boom significantly increased homeowners' assets. These channels are quantitatively significant; without considering homeownership, retirees' net worth would be 28%–44% lower, depending on age.