PRICES AND PRICE ANALYSIS IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The paper discusses the role of prices in the framework of the new System of National Accounts (SNA) in terms of three major uses: (1) deflation, (2) price indicators, and (3) price analysis. Following a brief review of the price and quantity measures required by the new SNA with its emphasis on deflation of commodity flows and input-output accounts, in addition to the more conventional deflation of final demand categories, the paper discusses some of the conceptual, methodological and data problems involved in implementing the various uses of prices in the new SNA. Implementing the use of prices as deflators depends, in part, on the concept of output selected (national versus domestic; gross versus net), and which of six concepts of valuation, ranging from purchasers'value to true factor cost, is used. Some of the difficulties in deflating nonmarket flows (e.g., interplant transfers) and industry value added, based on the double deflation method, are discussed. In concept price deflators, which have shifting weights, cannot be used as price indicators, which should have fixed weights. In practice, this is often disregarded and the deflators are used as price indicators. The paper support the SNA recommendation for the development of price indexes with fixed weights to be used as price indicators, in addition to the implicit price deflators. Research in the United States indicates that differences in weights can result in different price measures for various subperiods, components of demand and sector output. Periodic revisions in weights to provide more current fixed weights for price and quantity indexes in each subperiod may minimize the problem but it introduces a new problem—lack of comparability with the constant price tables in the SNA which have fixed weights for the entire period. The new SNA provides a comprehensive and integrated framework for price analysis including the analysis of the structure of aggregate price changes, the industrial origin of final demand prices, and the impact of price change in one sector of the economy on the rest of the economy. Some major gaps which need to be overcome in order to implement the use of the new SNA for price analysis include the development of industry capital stock estimates, separate estimates of proprietors’income, reconciliation of value added and distribution share estimates, and the development of a wide variety of information to supplement the conventional input-output tables in the SNA. Implementing the various objectives of price measures within the framework of the accounts will require a number of improvements in existing price measures and expanding the scope of coverage. “List” prices should be superseded by “transactions” prices and better techniques and data need to be developed to provide for quality adjustment of prices. Coverage will need to be expanded to include services, freight rates, trade margins, government expenditures, and also fill in gaps for many manufactured products. Finally, where possible, use of unit values as price indexes or deflators, e.g., imports and exports, should be replaced by direct price measures.     

How Proper Is Sequential Equilibrium?

A strategy profile of a normal form game is proper if and only if it is quasi-perfect in every extensive form (with that normal form). Thus, properness requires optimality along a sequence of supporting trembles, while sequentiality only requires optimality in the limit. A decision-theoretic implementation of sequential rationality, strategic independence respecting equilibrium (SIRE), is defined and compared to proper equilibrium, using lexicographic probability systems. Finally, we give tremble-based characterizations, which do not involve structural features of the game, of the rankings of strategies that underlie proper equilibrium and SIRE.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: C70, C72.     

Networks and network resources in technological innovation systems: Towards a conceptual framework for system building

Previous research has shown that formal networks can play a crucial role in the formation of technological innovation systems (TIS). Firms and other actors collaborate in formal networks not only to generate new knowledge but also to strategically create and shape supportive system resources such as technology specific R&D programs. This paper takes a closer look at the resources, which are developed and deployed by networks to facilitate the building up of a TIS. Networks rely not only on the organizational resources of their members but also on new resources developed at the network level including network governance structures, trust among network members, a common understanding of the strategic goals or a good reputation of the network. Our analysis shows that the capacity of networks to fulfill different tasks of system building especially depends on the network resources they are able to establish. With the differentiation of organizational, network and system resources we introduce a conceptual framework, which makes three important contributions. It highlights the strategic nature of (innovation) system building; it allows us comparing the contribution of different actors and formal networks in this regard; and it improves our understanding of how firm and system level processes are intertwined.     

A practical solution to the problem of ultimate ruin probability

Abstract

It was the Swiss actuary Chr. Moser who, in lectures at Bern University at the turn of the century, gave the name “self-renewing aggregate” to what Vajda (1947) has called the “unstationary community” of lives, namely where deaths at any epoch are immediately replaced by an equivalent number of births. It was Moser too (1926) who coined the expression “steady state” for the stationary community in which the age distribution at any time follows the life table (King, 1887). With such a distinguished actuarial history, excellently summarized by Saxer (1958, Ch. IV), it behoves every actuary to know at least the definitions and modus operandi of today's so-called renewal (point), or recurrent event, processes.     

The Employment Effects of Faster Payment: Evidence from the Federal Quickpay Reform

We study the impact of Quickpay, a reform that permanently accelerated payments to small business contractors of the U.S. government. We find a strong direct effect of the reform on employment growth at the firm level. However, we document substantial crowding out of nontreated firms' employment within local labor markets. While the overall net employment effect is positive, it is close to zero in tight labor markets. Our results highlight an important channel for alleviating financing constraints in small firms, but emphasize the general-equilibrium effects of large-scale interventions, which can lead to lower aggregate outcomes depending on labor market conditions.     

Survival and dissolution of exporter relationships with importers: A longitudinal analysis

The primary purpose of this paper is to extend knowledge about the survival or dissolution of interorganizational exporter/importer relationships. Based on a conceptual framework, this paper presents a longitudinal analysis of data to explore the relationships between trust, economic performance and the outcome of survival/dissolution of a business-to-business relationship. In addition, two interactions are presented that involve business distance on the outcome of the survival/dissolution of a business-to-business relationship. The results show a significant positive relationship of both trust and economic performance on survival. Findings also reveal a significant negative interaction between business distance and trust on survival. Finally, there is only a marginally significant negative interaction between business distance and economic performance on survival.     

THE DECISION TO DEMUTUALIZE: AN EXPLORATION OF THE DRIVERS OF ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE WITHIN THE AUSTRALIAN LIFE INSURANCE MARKET

The restructuring of the financial landscape that has occurred in the last three decades, has led to a reassessment of co‐operative models of organization. An outcome of this process has been the demutualization of mutual financial organizations. Using a case study approach this paper analyses the pressures on mutual structures encountered by Australian mutual life insurers. Such an approach provides a number of insights into the way in which firms adjust to changes in regulatory and competitive environments. It is concluded that a number of exogenous and endogenous forces combined to drive the process of organizational change.     

Dynamic dissolutions and unifications

I reexamine the key results from the literature on the size and number of countries under different political institutions in a simple dynamic model. I find that the canonical static results that democracies lead to too many too‐small countries and that Leviathans lead to too few too‐large countries no longer necessarily hold. The key dynamic element that drives the new results is that public goods are modeled as public capital; this changes the incentives to unify or divide countries. I also show that there are hysteresis effects on the size and number of countries; that is, arbitrary initial configurations of national boundaries may tend to persist because of the initial public capital location decisions they promote.