Perspektiven und Optionen einer wachstumsorientierten Finanzpolitik

Nachdem sich die Lage der Staatsfinanzen in den vergangenen Jahren deutlich verbessert hat, wird derzeit kontrovers über den Kurs der Finanzpolitik diskutiert. Soll sie weiterhin vorrangig auf Konsolidierung oder eher auf die vielfach als notwendig erachtete Steigerung des Wachstumspotenzials abzielen? Welche M?glichkeiten für eine verst?rkt wachstumsorientierte Finanzpolitik er?ffnen sich und wie sollten sie genutzt werden? Heinz Gebhardt, 55, Dipl.-Volkswirt, ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter in den Kompetenzbereichen „Wachstum und Konjunktur“ sowie „?ffentliche Finanzen“ des Rheinisch-Westf?lischen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in Essen; Dr. Lars Siemers, 34, ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter im Kompetenzbereich „?ffentliche Finanzen“ des RWI Essen. Die Autoren danken Roland D?hrn, Rainer Kambeck, Tanja Kasten, Christoph M. Schmidt und Joachim Schmidt für kritische Anmerkungen und hilfreiche Kommentare.     

Robustness of the market model

Summary The market model specifies that the random vector of returns on risky assets is an affine function of the return on the market portfolio plus a residual which has zero conditional expectation given the return on the market. The model is important because of its intimate relation to distributional two-fund separation and the CAPM equation. This paper shows that the market model is robust to small changes in the asset supplies only if the distribution of returns is spherically generated.     

RECOGNIZING MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS IN VALUE BASED MANAGEMENT

Value Based Management (VBM) has become a common tool for evaluating corporate strategies and projects from the perspective of shareholder value maximization, and can be an important input for corporate compensation systems. But traditional VBM frameworks make no systematic effort to distinguish between changes in performance attributable to macroeconomic fluctuations beyond management's control and changes in performance that reflect the intrinsic competitive position of the firm.
The authors have developed an approach for "filtering out" the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on cash flows for purposes of performance evaluation. Such fluctuations are captured by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and aggregate price levels (both domestically and abroad) that are significantly correlated with a particular company's cash flows. The authors also provide a method for distinguishing between expected and unanticipated cash flow effects of macro events and recommend insulating managers' performance only from the changes they cannot anticipate and manage. In applying the framework to Electrolux, a Swedish multinational, the authors show that unanticipated changes in the krona/pound exchange rate and various interest rates contribute significantly to the variability of the firm's cash flows; and with the help of the sensitivity coefficients used to measure such exposures, they calculate measures of "intrinsic" cash flow that are purged of such macro effects.     

Fiscal implications of AIDS in South Africa

The number of people living with HIV is alarmingly large. In addition to the incomprehensible human suffering of those directly affected, AIDS also has large, negative economic effects. In this paper, I study the fiscal implications of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa in a standard neo-classical growth model. I find that an antiretroviral program is to a large extent self financing. Improvement in dependency ratios and health care cost savings would pay for Rand 144 billion of a full epidemiological intervention. The indirect effect through the changing demographic structure will be more important than the direct health care cost saving effect. I also explore different taxation policies. The households would be willing to sacrifice an amount equal to 12% of GDP in the first period to be subject to an optimal (Ramsey) fiscal policy rather than an alternative fixed debt to GDP policy. The optimal policy implies an increase in government debt during the peak of the epidemic.     

Tax evasion,social norms,and economic growth

We propose a theoretical model to account for the negative relationship between tax evasion and economic development. More precisely, we integrate tax morale into a dynamic OLG model of tax evasion. Tax morale is modeled as a social norm for tax compliance. We show that accounting for such nonpecuniary costs of evasion may explain (a) why the share of evaded taxes over GDP decreases when countries grow and (b) that tax morale is positively correlated with the level of GDP per capita. Finally, a higher tax rate increases aggregate evasion and the number of evaders when taxpayers decisions are interdependent.     

Aspiring,nascent and fledgling entrepreneurs: an investigation of the business start-up process

This study focuses on three different milestones in the business gestation process, i.e. becoming an aspiring entrepreneur, a nascent entrepreneur, and a founder of a fledgling new business. Moreover, this study uses a combination of both individual and regional (or environmental) factors in predicting individuals’ success or failure to reach each of these three milestones. Hypotheses are developed to test the effect that human and environmental resources have on the odds of reaching the different milestones in the business start-up process. The study is based on interviews of a representative sample of 9533 Norwegians aged 18 years or older. From this group, 197 respondents qualified as nascent entrepreneurs. These were subsequently interviewed in follow-up interviews conducted in 1996, 1997 and 1999. In addition, regional data at the municipality level is included to measure the available pool of environmental resources. The results indicate that entrepreneurial experience is the single most important factor for predicting the outcome of the business start-up process. Even though environmental resources play a role, human resources are generally found to be better predictors of the outcome of the business start-up process. Several important implications for policy-makers are presented.     

GUEST EDITORIAL: Cutting corners in chemical risk limitation

The first genetically modified crops and foods to be approved for commercial use in the European Union have prompted intense controversy. Food retailers and processors have been forced to take up the concerns voiced by their customers. New networks of groups have formed to oppose the technology. In response to these pressures, regulators who approved the products have had to reconsider questions they had previously dismissed or officially resolved. Governments have devised more precautionary measures of various kinds. For example, they have increased the burden of evidence for demonstrating safety, have broadened the practical definition of the ‘adverse effects’ which must be prevented, and have devised marketstage precautions for such effects. These extra measures manage the risk debate as well as any risks. In such ways, the technocratic model of European harmonization is being challenged and superseded. This may allow differences in national practices to be viewed as valuable expert resources for a different harmonization model, rather than as deviations from a universal rational norm. Regulatory conflicts offer precautionary opportunities, which could lead to more flexible and democratic procedures. Theoretical perspectives – on risk, uncertainty, precaution, European integration, expertise and the internal market – help illuminate these possibilities.     

Examining macroeconomic models through the lens of asset pricing

We develop new methods for representing the asset-pricing implications of stochastic general equilibrium models. We provide asset-pricing counterparts to impulse response functions and the resulting dynamic value decompositions (DVDs). These methods quantify the exposures of macroeconomic cash flows to shocks over alternative investment horizons and the corresponding prices or investors’ compensations. We extend the continuous-time methods developed in Hansen and Scheinkman (2012) and Borovi?ka et al. (2011) by constructing discrete-time, state-dependent, shock-exposure and shock-price elasticities as functions of the investment horizon. Our methods are applicable to economic models that are nonlinear, including models with stochastic volatility.     

Proofs for large sample properties of generalized method of moments estimators

I present proofs for the consistency of generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators presented in Hansen (1982). Some basic approximation results provide the groundwork for the analysis of a class of such estimators. Using these results, I establish the large sample convergence of GMM estimators under alternative restrictions on the estimation problem.     

Regulatory induced performance persistence: Evidence from hedge funds

This paper tests the idea that financial regulation can impact performance persistence in the context of the hedge fund industry in 48 countries over the years 1994–2008. The data show evidence of three types of regulation influencing performance persistence: (1) minimum capital restrictions, which restrict lower quality funds and hence increase the likelihood of performance persistence, (2) restrictions on location of key service providers, which restrict human capital choices and hence tend to mitigate performance persistence, and (3) distribution channels, which make fund performance more opaque, decrease the likelihood of performance persistence. We do not find evidence that distribution channels, that promote fund presence to institutional investors, enhance performance persistence. Finally, we show differences in the effect of regulation on persistence by fund quartile ranking.