Cash-Flow Valuation and Value at Risk

The cash-flow valuation method (CFVM) has been developed in Canada for the valuation of insurance company annuity products. Its range of application is expected to be extended shortly to the valuation of most other life insurance company products. The CFVM is based on the use of “best-guess” assumptions, supplemented by specific provisions for adverse deviations. In this paper, special attention is paid to the calculation of the provision for adverse deviations with respect to the interest rate risk. We show that the determination of this provision is the analog for life insurance and annuity policy liabilities of the calculation by banks of Value at Risk (VaR) with respect to portfolios of securities held for trading.     

An examination of the equity market price linkage between Australia and the European Union using leveraged bootstrap method

The paper examines the equity market price interaction between Australia and the European Union – represented by the UK, Germany and France – based on the Toda–Yamamoto causality test, which is bootstrapped with leveraged adjustments. A new information criterion is used to choose the optimal lag order. Weekly MSCI data covering the period 1988 to 2001 is used, divided into two subperiods to allow for a structural break arising from the ERM crisis of 1992. Results show that, during the period before the ERM crisis, no significant causal links exist between Australia and any of three EU countries. During the period after the ERM crisis, Australia also had no causal links with Germany and France but it had with the UK, with causality running from the UK to Australia but not vice-versa. Thus, Australian investors may find the German and French, but not the UK, equity markets, attractive venues for their international diversification. German and French, but not British, investors may also obtain the same benefit from the Australian equity market.     

Benchmarking Risk Management Within the International Water Utility Sector. Part I: Design of a Capability Maturity Methodology

Risk management in the water utility sector is becoming increasingly explicit. However, due to the novelty and complexity of the discipline, utilities are encountering difficulties in defining and institutionalising their risk management processes. In response, the authors have developed a sector specific capability maturity methodology for benchmarking and improving risk management. The research, conducted in consultation with water utility practitioners, has distilled risk management into a coherent, process‐based framework. We identified eleven risk management processes, and eight key attributes with characterise the extent to which these processes are defined, controlled and institutionalised. Implementation of the model should enable utilities to more effectively employ their portfolio of risk analysis techniques for optimal, credible and defensible decision making.     

The density of the time to ruin for a Sparre Andersen process with Erlang arrivals and exponential claims

We derive expressions for the density of the time to ruin given that ruin occurs in a Sparre Andersen model in which individual claim amounts are exponentially distributed and inter-arrival times are distributed as Erlang(n,?β). We provide numerical illustrations of finite time ruin probabilities, as well as illustrating features of the density functions.     

Mean and dispersion modelling for policy claims costs

A model for the statistical analysis of the total amount of insurance paid out on a policy is developed and applied. The model simultaneously deals with the number of claims (zero or more) and the amount of each claim. The number of claims is from a Poisson-based discrete distribution. Individual claim sizes are from a continuous right skewed distribution. The resulting distribution of total claim size is a mixed discrete-continuous model, with positive probability of a zero claim. The means and dispersions of the claim frequency and claim size distribution are modeled in terms of risk factors. The model is applied to a car insurance data set.     

Literatur

1. A simplified method for the deduction of Sheppard's correction formulae for ordinary and factorial moments, and for semi-invariants, together with more general results than those previously known, especially with regard to the remainder term, has recently been given ¹ H. Wold: Sulla correzione di Sheppard. Giornale dell' Istituto Italiano degli Attuari IV 1934, pp. 304–314. The methods used in the note referred to are similar to those used by W. F. Sheppard in his paper “The Calculation of Moments of a Frequency Distribution”, Biometrika V 1907, pp. 450–459. However, Sheppard's results are not valid under equally general conditions. . The method is based upon a very simple application of Euler—MacLaurin's formula, and the usual corrections are thereby shown to be valid for very general frequency curves, even for those without high contact in one or both directions. The note referred to deals with the case of one variable; the use of the method employed there can, however, easily be extended to an arbitrary number of variables, which extension it is the purpose of this paper to carry through. For the sake of formal simplicity the deductions are performed with two variables; the results can then immediately be generalized.     

The Relationship between Earnings,Funds Flows and Cash Flows: Evidence for the UK

Recent UK information content studies have provided evidence of a significant relationship between earnings and share prices, as in the US, but have also identified an apparent lack of information content for operating cash flow, which is in marked contrast to findings from US research. This paper provides direct evidence on the relationship between earnings, funds flows and cash flows in the UK during the period 1965–84, using tests of association and predictive tests based on a research methodology applied by Bowen, Burgstahler and Daley (1986) to US data. The results provide UK evidence on the contemporaneous and predictive relationships between measures of earnings, funds flows and cash flows which are generally consistent with the US findings of Bowen et al. and which do not support the view that earnings in the UK are superior to cash flows as predictors of future cash flows.     

International harmony measures of accounting policy: comparative statistical properties

Van der Tas's (1988) I index and the between-country C index introduced by Archer et al. (1995) are competing measures of international harmony. We present comparative statistical properties of these indices, via a simulation study covering three accounting methods in 10 countries, with uniform, bimodal and unimodal distributions of companies across accounting methods. The indices are also adjusted for non-disclosures using techniques developed by Archer and McLeay (1995) and Archer et al. (1995). The I index and the between-country C index are mathematically equivalent in the two-country case even in the presence of non-disclosures. As more countries are compared, the two indices diverge. The means and standard deviations of the I index, with a correction proposed by Archer and McLeay (1995), decrease and there is little skewness or kurtosis. In contrast, as more countries are compared, the between-country C index exhibits more stability in means, lower standard deviations, higher skewness and kurtosis. The between-country C index may be superior to the corrected I index because (i) between-country C index means approximate their ‘expected values’ (where all observations equal expected values) more closely than do corrected I index means: and (ii) between-country C index means are more stable than corrected I index means where the data come from stable distributions.     

The costs and benefits of increased accounting regulation: a case study of Lloyd's of London

While a valuable literature exists on theoretical considerations in cost-benefit analysis (cba) of accounting regulation, and although the regulators themselves acknowledge the need for cost-benefit appraisal of their work, empirical analysis of the costs and benefits of changes in accounting regulation is almost non-existent. This paper attempts such an analysis for a step change in accounting and audit regulation—at Lloyd's between 1982 and 1985. It aims both to advance the cba methodology, and to inform debate about the evolution of the Lloyd's market. While the estimates do not show whether the changes produced an optimal level or form of Lloyd's regulation, they do suggest that, comparing changes, the extra benefits exceeded the extra costs—whether the chosen accounting unit is a private one—Lloyd's Names—or a social one.