Nonlinear dynamics in economic modelling

Decisions in Economics and Finance -     

Will India Be the Next China? Challenges,Prospects and Implications for Australia

India's recent growth performance has been impressive and it appears set to again become a major global economic power. But, sustaining this growth poses formidable challenges. Australia stands to gain much from India's growth. In this article, we review recent developments in the Indian economy, identify policy challenges and discuss short‐to‐medium term prospects, noting some of the main similarities and differences between China and India. Then, we look at opportunities for significant growth in Australian–Indian economic links and policy implications including the possible role of a free trade agreement.     

Autocorrelation and masked heterogeneity in panel data models estimated by maximum likelihood

In a panel data model with random effects, when autocorrelation in the error is considered, (Gaussian) maximum likelihood estimation produces a dramatically large number of corner solutions: the variance of the random effect appears (incorrectly) to be zero, and a larger autocorrelation is (incorrectly) assigned to the idiosyncratic component. Thus heterogeneity could (incorrectly) be lost in applications to panel data with customarily available time dimension, even in a correctly specified model. The problem occurs in linear as well as nonlinear models. This article aims at pointing out how serious this problem can be (largely neglected by the panel data literature). A set of Monte Carlo experiments is conducted to highlight its relevance, and we explain this unpleasant effect showing that, along a direction, the expected log-likelihood is nearly flat.     

Patient intensity in an ambulatory oncology research center: A step forward for the field of ambulatory care--Part II

Nursing leaders in ambulatory care need to objectively quantify patient intensity to balance patient care needs and nursing resources. In this three-part series, current literature on acuity/intensity tools will be reviewed, and the development of an Ambulatory Intensity System (AIS) to objectively quantify nursing care will be described. In this article, the ongoing implementation of the system, its incorporation into the organization's established computerized appointment system, reliability measures, and related performance improvement activities will be discussed.     

Asymmetries and interdependencies in time use between Italian parents

In recent decades, changes in parents’ attitudes towards the importance of spending time with children to optimize their future behaviour and cognitive development have greatly affected patterns of time allocation among both working and nonworking parents in all developed countries. We compare the two waves of the Italian Time Use dataset (1988 and 2002) to analyse how family time allocation changed over time in a country that was undergoing a marked increase in female employment rate and a continuous decline in total fertility rate. We focus especially on how parents’ time with their children depends on their employment status and household characteristics. Using a simultaneous sequential approach, we consider links among the different time uses of individuals and correlations with spouses’ decisions. We find that wives’ time at work time strongly influences the time spent by both spouses with their children in 2002, but not in 1988. Fathers were much more involved in childcare and rearing in 2002 than in 1988. In general, as women's work time increased, substitutes for their childcare time were found within the household (fathers or other co-resident adults).     

Analysing the risk premium in the Italian stock market: ARCH-M models versus non-parametric models

This Paper investigates the variability of the risk premium in the Italian stock market, over the period 1978–89. We have modelled voatility using two different approaches: ARCH-M models and non-parametric models. The estimate of the ARCH-M models confirm the existence of both an ARCH process in the variance and a time-varying risk premium. Also the non-parametric specification confirms the existence of a time varying risk premium. Moreover in both models the acceleration in the inflation rate has a negative effect on stock prices.     

Compensating wage differentials for job stress

Recent medical studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between mental stress and cardiac events such as myocardial infarction and stroke. In the workplace, stress once accounted for less than 5% of all occupational disease claims, but it now accounts for over 15%. Although research on the effects of mental stress is increasing, few studies offer an economic perspective. In this paper, we examine the effects of job stress on weekly wages and explore the possibility that stress commands a compensating wage differential. Our findings suggest that, ceteris paribus, a wage differential does exist between workers experiencing mental stress and their ‘non-stressed’ cohorts. After controlling for other demographic and occupational factors, we found a statistically significant wage premium ranging from 3 to 10% attributable to mental stress. In addition, the magnitude of the differential varies by gender.     

What money buys: clients of street sex workers in the US

The article presents a review of current theoretical and empirical approaches to sex work, followed by the presentation of an original theoretical framework (Della Giusta et al., 2006), which is tested with an econometric model of the characteristics of demand for sex services by a sample of clients of street sex workers in the US. We present findings in relation to stigma and the relationship between paid and unpaid sex that corroborate our model's hypotheses and are in line with findings from other empirical studies. Furthermore, we identify in our sample two diametrically opposite profiles: one for clients whom we label ‘experimenters’, and one for more experienced ones that we name ‘regulars’, we also estimate attitudes toward risk, and draw implications in terms of both policy and future theoretical and empirical research.     

Green Polities: Urban Environmental Performance and Government Popularity

Ascertaining whether local election results are driven by incumbents' performance while in office or mechanically reflect constituencies' ideological affiliation and macroeconomic conditions is crucial for evaluating the alleged accountability‐enhancing property of decentralization. On the basis of a unique score of urban environmental performance and the results of all elections held in the major Italian cities over a decade, we investigate the role of local (fiscal and environmental) vs. national issues in municipal elections. Although the empirical evidence points to a strong ideological attachment and a somewhat weaker “fiscal conservatism,” it reveals that media reported environmental rankings have an impact on the popularity of city governments.