Fairness,risk and risk tolerance in the siting of a nuclear waste repository

In this paper, risk tolerance with regard to nuclear waste is investigated. It is shown that Swedish respondents did not readily accept a local high-level nuclear waste repository, contrary to claims based on polling data. The important role played in Sweden by misleading survey questions is pointed out and demonstrated on empirical data where formulations and procedures are varied. The acceptance of a local repository (measured as intention to vote in its favour in a local referendum) could not be explained well by a cost-benefit approach, neither by an individual risk perception model. Concern about the local community was an important determinant, however, and so were moral aspects. When these aspects were included in a model, about 60% of the variance of risk perception and risk acceptance was accounted for. Cultural Theory scale items, however, added virtually nothing to the explanatory power of the models. In further analyses, NIMBY respondents were identified, defined here as people who rejected a local repository in spite of having acknowledged substantial utility of nuclear power. NlMBYs constituted, however, only a small minority of all opposition to a local repository. Few respondents stated that they would accept a local repository if they were to be given financial compensation. This fact may be related to nuclear power issues being conceived as general, rather than personal, matters. Those who saw it as a politically important issue also conceived of it in general rather than personal terms.     

Rational Risk Perception: Utopia or Dystopia?

Societal conflicts with regard to risk management are common. The public has different beliefs than many experts and administrators with regard to such issues as the citing of a repository for spent nuclear fuel or whether genetically modified organisms should be allowed to enter the human food chain. As a result, political tensions arise and there may be a skew allocation of resources for risk mitigation. The question raised in the article is if a consensus society is possible and desirable. If views converge on high risk beliefs, the cost would be very high as well. If views converge on low risks, some hazards could be neglected and environmental damage considerable, as used to be the case in the Former Soviet Union and other socialist countries which lacked a free press. A consensus society is neither possible nor desirable. No party has access to the final truth with regard to risks and hazards; diversity is an asset.     

Identifying development blocks—a new methodology

The paper specifies a quantitative methodology for exploring development blocks. The concept of ‘development block’ was a major contribution to the historical analysis of industrial transformation by the late Erik Dahmén, but development blocks have mainly been analyzed by qualitative methods and indirect indicators and not statistically identified. In this paper, development blocks are identified by means of a combination of co-integration analysis and Granger causality. Using these techniques, we are able to identify two partially overlapping development blocks in the Swedish economy, formed around the electricity generating sector: one with metal, metal goods, machinery and railways; and another with pulp and paper, chemicals, and machinery.

A class of adaptive importance sampling weighted EM algorithms for efficient and robust posterior and predictive simulation

A class of adaptive sampling methods is introduced for efficient posterior and predictive simulation. The proposed methods are robust in the sense that they can handle target distributions that exhibit non-elliptical shapes such as multimodality and skewness. The basic method makes use of sequences of importance weighted Expectation Maximization steps in order to efficiently construct a mixture of Student-t$t$ densities that approximates accurately the target distribution–typically a posterior distribution, of which we only require a kernel–in the sense that the Kullback–Leibler divergence between target and mixture is minimized. We label this approach Mixture of  t$t$by Importance Sampling weighted Expectation Maximization (MitISEM). The constructed mixture is used as a candidate density for quick and reliable application of either Importance Sampling (IS) or the Metropolis–Hastings (MH) method. We also introduce three extensions of the basic MitISEM approach. First, we propose a method for applying MitISEM in a sequential manner, so that the candidate distribution for posterior simulation is cleverly updated when new data become available. Our results show that the computational effort reduces enormously, while the quality of the approximation remains almost unchanged. This sequential approach can be combined with a tempering approach, which facilitates the simulation from densities with multiple modes that are far apart. Second, we introduce a permutation-augmented MitISEM approach. This is useful for importance or Metropolis–Hastings sampling from posterior distributions in mixture models without the requirement of imposing identification restrictions on the model’s mixture regimes’ parameters. Third, we propose a partial MitISEM approach, which aims at approximating the joint distribution by estimating a product of marginal and conditional distributions. This division can substantially reduce the dimension of the approximation problem, which facilitates the application of adaptive importance sampling for posterior simulation in more complex models with larger numbers of parameters. Our results indicate that the proposed methods can substantially reduce the computational burden in econometric models like DCC or mixture GARCH models and a mixture instrumental variables model.     

International or national implementers—Who is better? Evidence from a framing experiment

Behavioral economics has shown that changing small features in framing a context or action may drastically change behavior. A key factor characterizing most development interventions is the salience of either a local or an international implementer. Using the setup of an intervention conducted in Indonesia, we show that the study population in the Acehnese context exhibits higher levels of support for the project if the participation of international actors is highlighted. We find that previous experience with the respective actor is pivotal. Qualitative evidence suggests that internationals' perceived skills drive results, highlighting the importance of strengthened local capacities for positive experiences with local implementers. Overall, the study underlines the benefits of linking framing experiments to the actual experiences of respondents to generate insights into the real world.