Profits and Fractal Properties: Notes on Marx,Countertendencies and Simulation Models

There are new reasons for revisiting Marx’s elaboration on the rate of profit because contemporary debates provide findings from the MEGA Project, long-term data on the rate of profit, and tools for dealing with complexity and non-equilibrium systems. This article proposes that the interplay between the tendency and the countertendencies of the rate of profit to fall can be translated into a simple system of equations, one based on each chapter of Section Three of Capital—as if Marx sought to mathematically formalise his insights. This article reviews previous debates, presents data and runs a simulation model, showing that the rate of profit behaves as fractals.     

Trade,competitiveness and investment: an empirical assessment

ABSTRACT

The Eurozone crisis has exposed several weaknesses of the European Monetary Union economies. This paper aims to assess the impact on external competitiveness of an expansionary capital stock policy that could contribute to reduce the trade balance asymmetries within the EU and help European exporters to recover their competitive role in international markets. A policy action to increase capital stock accumulation through investment in selected European countries could generate a double dividend: increasing both price and nonprice competitiveness, so stimulating their competitive position as exporters, and consolidating the growth path of EU economy. The analysis employs a bilateral trade model built at INFORUM with several distinguishing characteristics: a comprehensive bilateral data set, econometric estimation of key parameters, and emphasis on sectoral details. Our findings show that a capital stock increase is effective in narrowing trade imbalances within EU. Heterogeneous effects are estimated for commodities in China and the US.     

Settlement delays in the money market

We track 38,000 money market trades from execution to delivery and return, and provide a first empirical analysis of settlement delays in financial markets. In accord with the predictions of recent models of strategic settlement of financial claims, we document a tendency by lenders to delay delivery of loaned funds until the afternoon hours. We find banks to follow a simple strategy to manage the risk of account overdrafts, by delaying settlement of large payments relative to that of small payments. More sophisticated strategies such as increasing delays when own liquid balances are low and when dealing with small trading partners play a marginal role. We find evidence of strategic delay also when returning borrowed funds, although we can explain a smaller fraction of the dispersion in delays in the return than in delivery leg of money market lending.     

Evaluación del efecto de la psicología del inversionista en un mercado bursátil artificial mediante su grado de eficiencia

The main objective in this paper is developing a cellular automaton model where interact more than one kind of broker, where the use and exchange of information between the investors explain the complexity through the Hurst coefficient estimation, this, represents an efficient or random market when the value is equal to 0.5. Due to the variants proposed in this research it can be determined that should exist a rational component in the simulator in order to generate an efficient behavior.     

Branding destinations versus branding hotels in a gaming destination—Examining the nature and significance of co-branding effects in the case study of Macao

This paper considers destinations and hotels operating within a gaming destination as co-branded experiential choice products. Specifically, it examines the overall and individual effects of visitors’ perceived brand equity of a gaming destination and their perceived brand equity of various hotels, including ‘flagship’ or branded hotels, in terms of influencing their reaction to a hypothetical brand loyalty scenario in which their intended and preferred hotel was unable to provide accommodation thus forcing them to either: (1) choose an alternate hotel in the destination and continue with the visit, (2) cancel the trip and choose another destination to visit, or (3) insist on staying at the preferred hotel but postpone the trip at another period. The study's expectation is that visitors’ response to such a hypothetical scenario is moderated by the relative influence of their perceived brand equity for the destination and for hotels. The emergent gaming destination of Macao is used as a case study for this purpose. The study's findings indicate that visitors’ overall destination brand equity perceptions—rather than hotel brand equity perceptions—is robustly significant when it comes to influencing visitors’ response to the brand loyalty scenario. Results of the study indicate several relevant implications for destination management organizations (DMOs) seeking to enhance their destination-branding efforts and for hotel operators, especially internationally branded hotel chains.     

Productivity, wages and intrinsic motivations

There is a long-standing debate in labour economics on the impact of workers’ intrinsic motivations on equilibrium wages. One direction in economic theory suggests that intrinsically motivated workers are willing to accept lower wages and “donate” work, for example, in terms of unpaid overtime (the donative-labour hypothesis). In the other direction, intrinsic motivations are expected to increase worker productivity and, in turn, wages (the intrinsic motivation-productivity hypothesis). Using a new database of a sample of workers in the cooperative non-profit sector, we find that, consistently with the motivation-productivity hypothesis, more motivated workers earn significantly higher wages, which signals higher productivity. Evidence supporting the donative-labour hypothesis is weaker, even though a generally positive connection between motivations and work-donation is confirmed. We interpret these findings by arguing that the impact of the donative-labour effect is dominated by the intrinsic motivation-productivity effect.     

Crypto-assets portfolio optimization under the omega measure

Abstract

Crypto-currencies, or crypto-assets, represent a new class of investment assets. The traditional portfolio analysis approach of Markowitz is not appropriate for use with portfolios containing crypto-assets, as the model requires that the investor have a quadratic utility function or that the returns be normally distributed, which isn’t the case for crypto-assets. We develop a portfolio optimization model based on the Omega measure which is more comprehensive than the Markowitz model, and apply this to four crypto-asset investment portfolios by means of a numerical application. The results indicate that these portfolios should favor traditional market assets over crypto-assets. In the case of portfolios formed only by crypto-assets, there is no clear preference in favor of any crypto-asset in particular.     

Sudden Stops,Time Inconsistency,and the Duration of Sovereign Debt

We study the sovereign debt duration chosen by the government in the context of a standard model of sovereign default. The government balances off increasing the duration of its debt to mitigate rollover risk and lowering duration to mitigate the debt dilution problem. We present two main results. First, when the government decides the debt duration on a sequential basis, sudden stop risk increases the average duration by 1 year. Second, we illustrate the time inconsistency problem in the choice of sovereign debt duration: governments would like to commit to a duration that is 1.7 years shorter than the one they choose when decisions are made sequentially.