Compromising the compromise effect: Brands matter

Consumer behavior research has a long history indicating that preferences are influenced by the relative positions of members of a choice set. The realism of this work, however, is somewhat limited because alternatives are typically labeled with letters rather than with real brand names. We investigate the boundaries of prior research by testing whether preferences for alternatives in compromise and superior positions generalize to a more realistic market scenario that includes choices between real brands. In particular, we conduct two studies that examine if preferences for brands in a choice set are moderated by the inclusion of more or less familiar brand names. We find that consumers prefer extreme brands when compromise brands are relatively less familiar and compromise brands when they are relatively more familiar. In this scenario brand familiarity and not the position of the alternatives determine choice. In situations where a choice alternative is superior, we find no moderation due to brand familiarity.

The Determinants of Growth for Small and Medium Sized Firms. The Role of the Availability of External Finance

We present an empirical analysis of the determinants of growth for a sample of Italian small and medium sized firms. We show that, when investigating a sample which includes firms between 10 and 50 employees and a set of variables larger than those usually considered in the literature, growth – net of industry characteristics and ex ante market power – turns out to be significantly affected not only by size and age, but also by state subsidies, export capacity and credit rationing. By adopting a multivariate approach we also show that these findings are confirmed after controlling for heteroskedasticity, survivorship bias and serial correlation. Our results suggest that the hypothesis of independence of firm growth from the initial size and other factors (usually referred to as Gibrat's law in the literature) is not rejected for large firms, while it does not hold for small and medium sized firms under financial constraints in a "bank-oriented" financial system in which access to external finance is difficult.     

Employment and SMEs during crises

The persistent increasing duration of unemployment has become an issue during economic crises. Although lay-offs at large firms normally make headlines during crises, we still know little about the potential impact of firm size on adjustment behavior in a crisis. We studied effects of firm size on employment growth during economic slowdowns using a rich microeconomic database for the 1988–2007 period in Portuguese manufacturing industry. The results show that economic downturns affect firm growth negatively. This negative effect is found to be higher for larger firms, both during and immediately following crisis periods. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) emerge as potential stabilizers in downturn periods. However, larger firms seem to be able to quickly recover from downturn periods. Our results contribute to the scarce literature and to the understanding of the Portuguese case, where many SMEs secure most jobs. These first results may be useful, because SMEs play a determinant role in other European Union economies.     

Optimal subsidies and guarantees in public–private partnerships

In this paper, we analyse how certain subsidies and guarantees given to private firms in public–private partnerships should be optimally arranged to promote immediate investment in a real options framework. We show how an investment subsidy, a revenue subsidy, a minimum demand guarantee, and a rescue option could be optimally arranged to induce immediate investment, compensating for the value of the option to defer. These four types of incentives produce significantly different results when we compare the value of the project after the incentive structure is devised and also when we compare the timing of the resulting cash flows.     

Are price limits on futures markets that cool? Evidence from the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange

This article investigates the impact of price limits on theBrazilian futures markets using high frequency data. The aimis to identify whether there is an ex ante cool-off or magneteffect. For that purpose, we examine a tick-by-tick data setthat includes all contracts on the São Paulo stock indexfutures traded on the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange(BM&F) from January 1997 to December 1999. The results indicatethat, altogether, there is a dominant cool-off effect in playand that the latter is much stronger for the floor rather thanceiling price. This explains why we observe more hits to theceiling rather than to the floor in our sample despite the factit covers one of the most turbulent periods for emerging markets.We then build a trading strategy that accounts for the cool-offeffect in the conditional mean so as to demonstrate that thelatter has not only statistical but also economic significance.The Sharpe ratio is indeed way superior to the buy-and-holdbenchmarks we consider.     

The response of real wages to unanticipated money growth

This paper investigates the response of real wages to unanticipated money growth in the light of equilibrium theories of the business cycle. These theories, in their main different versions, do not deliver a common and unambiguous hypothesis on this issue. While some models implu a countercyclical real wage response during monetary cycles, others yield the opposite result of a procyclical real wage. Econometric analysis of annual and quarterly U.S. data, reported in the paper, indicates that there is a weak negative real wage response to an unanticipated increase in money growth.     

Soft versus hard targets for exchange rate intervention

Exchange rate intervention by monetary authorities should defend a band not for the spot exchange rate, but for a moving average of its recent values. This target zone is soft, in that it allows greater short-run flexibility, but also rigorous: it still precludes any sustained easing of monetary policy. In comparison with conventional hard target zones for the spot exchange rate, we find considerable advantages for the rule we propose. In particular, without compromising long-run discipline, it increases resilience against speculative attacks, especially when shocks to exchange rate fundamentals are transitory.     

HETEROGENEOUS BORROWERS IN QUANTITATIVE MODELS OF SOVEREIGN DEFAULT*

We extend the model used in recent quantitative studies of sovereign default, allowing policymakers of different types to stochastically alternate in power. We show that a default episode may be triggered by a change in the type of policymaker in office, and that such a default is likely to occur only if there is enough political stability and if policymakers encounter poor economic conditions. Under high political stability, political turnover enables the model to generate a weaker correlation between economic conditions and default decisions, a higher and more volatile spread, and lower borrowing levels after a default episode.