Sudden Stops,Time Inconsistency,and the Duration of Sovereign Debt

We study the sovereign debt duration chosen by the government in the context of a standard model of sovereign default. The government balances off increasing the duration of its debt to mitigate rollover risk and lowering duration to mitigate the debt dilution problem. We present two main results. First, when the government decides the debt duration on a sequential basis, sudden stop risk increases the average duration by 1 year. Second, we illustrate the time inconsistency problem in the choice of sovereign debt duration: governments would like to commit to a duration that is 1.7 years shorter than the one they choose when decisions are made sequentially.     

Inter-Firm Technological Cooperation: Effects Of Absorptive Capacity,Firm-Size And Specialization

This paper aims to add evidence on the role played by firms' technological competencies in the determination of their intensity of cooperation with other firms. Using a database composed by patents jointly filcd by two or more firms in the European Patent Office, the paper confronts the hypotheses of complementary or substitutive character of technological cooperation in relation to intra-mural R&D. The results suggest that more technologically and productive specialized firms are more likely to cooperate and find no support for the hypothesis that greater level of R&D expenditure will induce greater reliance on technological cooperation. It is also suggested that firms cooperate with partners that hold cotilplenientary competencies.     

Time varying betas and the unconditional distribution of asset returns

This paper draws attention to the fact that under standard assumptions the time varying betas model cannot capture the dynamics in beta. Conversely, evidence of time variation in beta using this model is equivalent to non-normality in the unconditional distribution of asset returns. Using the multivariate normal as a model for the joint distribution of returns on market indices and predetermined information variables, it is shown how to capture skewness and kurtosis in the unconditional distributions of asset returns. Under the assumptions of the model, asset returns are unconditionally distributed as an extended quadratic form (EQF) in normal variables. Expressions are given for the moment generating function and for the computation of the distribution and density functions. The market-timing model is derived formally using this model. The properties of bias when the standard linear betas model is used to estimate alpha when the correct model is the EQF are also investigated. It is shown that a different time varying betas model can arise as a consequence of portfolio selection. It is also shown that the predetermined information variables have the potential to account for the time series properties of returns, including heterogeneity of variance. An empirical study applies the model to returns on 46 UK bond funds. An analysis of the residuals shows that the model described in this paper is able to capture the dynamics of alpha and beta and properly account for other features of the time series of returns for 28 of these funds, of which 15 exhibit time variation in beta. The study reports the effect of the EQF model on the computation of VaR and CVaR and bias in the estimation of alpha.     

Relative forecasting performance of volatility models: Monte Carlo evidence

Abstract

A Monte Carlo (MC) experiment is conducted to study the forecasting performance of a variety of volatility models under alternative data-generating processes (DGPs). The models included in the MC study are the (Fractionally Integrated) Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models ((FI)GARCH), the Stochastic Volatility model (SV), the Long Memory Stochastic Volatility model (LMSV) and the Markov-switching Multifractal model (MSM). The MC study enables us to compare the relative forecasting performance of the models accounting for different characterizations of the latent volatility process: specifications that incorporate short/long memory, autoregressive components, stochastic shocks, Markov-switching and multifractality. Forecasts are evaluated by means of mean squared errors (MSE), mean absolute errors (MAE) and value-at-risk (VaR) diagnostics. Furthermore, complementarities between models are explored via forecast combinations. The results show that (i) the MSM model best forecasts volatility under any other alternative characterization of the latent volatility process and (ii) forecast combinations provide systematic improvements upon most single misspecified models, but are typically inferior to the MSM model even if the latter is applied to data governed by other processes.     

Are there asymmetries in the response of bank interest rates to monetary shocks?

This article examines the velocity and asymmetry of the response of bank interest rates to monetary policy shocks. Using an asymmetric vector error correction model, it analyses the pass-through of changes in money market rates to retail bank interest rates in Italy in the period 1985–2002. The main results of the article are: (1) the speed of adjustment of bank interest rates to monetary policy changes increased significantly after the introduction of the 1993 Consolidated Law on Banking; (2) interest rate adjustment in response to positive and negative shocks is asymmetric in the short run, but not in the long run; (3) banks adjust their loan (deposit) rate faster during periods of monetary tightening (easing); (4) this asymmetry almost vanished since the 1990s.     

Selectivity, Pulse Fishing and Endogenous Lifespan in Beverton-Holt Models

Optimal management in a multi-cohort Beverton-Holt model with any number of age classes and imperfect selectivity is equivalent to finding the optimal fish lifespan by chosen fallow cycles. Optimal policy differs in two main ways from the optimal lifespan rule with perfect selectivity. First, weight gain is valued in terms of the whole population structure. Second, the cost of waiting is the interest rate adjusted for the increase in the pulse length. This point is especially relevant for assessing the role of selectivity. Imperfect selectivity reduces the optimal lifespan and the optimal pulse length. We illustrate our theoretical findings with a numerical example. Results obtained using global numerical methods select the optimal pulse length predicted by the optimal lifespan rule.     

Scoring environmental credentials: a review of UK conference and meetings venues using the GREENER VENUE framework

This paper investigates frameworks to conceptualise, monitor and compare corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance at individual conference venues, and provides a new comparative framework that organises and communicates information detailing business performance on 10 environmental policy initiatives (EPIs) (expressed by the acronym “GREENER”) using a CSR scale (expressed by the acronym “VENUE”). This GREENER VENUE framework reduces the gap in the CSR literature by accentuating discretionary practices, and by exhibiting conceptual and psychometric properties enabling the framework's application to broad and diverse contexts. Its use is grounded in theory: the framework is practical, simple to implement, easily understandable and highly relatable. Applying the GREENER VENUE framework to data collected via a self-administered internet questionnaire of 191 UK conference and meeting venues reveals that the biggest groups of such venues are classified as “Eager” on a rising scale from Eternal denial (11%), through Unmotivated (16%), to Nonchalant (30%) and so to Eager (36%), and finally, the top group, Venerated (7%). The paper also investigates the relative influence of all 10 EPI variables of the GREENER measure – considered simultaneously – towards enhancing firms’ behaviour on an inventory of 18 well-known environmental best practices (EBPIs).     

Model risk adjusted hedge ratios

Most option pricing models assume all parameters except volatility are fixed; yet they almost invariably change on re‐calibration. This article explains how to capture the model risk that arises when parameters that are assumed constant have calibrated values that change over time and how to use this model risk to adjust the price hedge ratios of the model. Empirical results demonstrate an improvement in hedging performance after the model risk adjustment. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:1021–1049, 2009