Learning non-rational expectations equilibria

A hyperinflation model is analyzed under bounded rationality learning. Agents believe in a misspecified model which is correctly specified at theRational Expectations Equilibrium of the model and they adjust their beliefs by means of theLeast Mean Squares algorithm. Convergence of the bounded rationality learning activity to anon-Rational Expectations Equilibrium point is obtained for any set of parameters of the model.

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Sommario In questo lavoro gli autori analizzano il modello di iperinflazioneà la Cagan sotto l'ipotesi di razionalità limitata. Gli agenti non formano le loro aspettative coerentemente con la struttura completa del modello economico, essi si basano su un modello lineare non correttamente specificato che risulta essere corretto soltanto in corrispondenza dell'equilibrio con aspettative razionali. Si ipotizza che i soggetti aggiornino le loro aspettative tramite un algoritmo di apprendimento. Nel caso specifico, l'algoritmo adottato è ilLeast Mean Squares. Il principale risultato del lavoro è che l'apprendimento con razionalità limitata da parte dei soggetti economici può convergere ad un punto che non è un equilibrio con aspettative razionali. Il risultato è particolarmente interessante poiché la maggior parte degli studi noti in questa letteratura, nonostante non assicurino la convergenza ad un equilibrio con aspettative razionali, assicurano la non convergenza ad un equilibrio che non sia di aspecttative razionali. La convergenza ad un equilibrio non di aspettative razionali è dovuta ad una non corretta specificazione del modello secondo cui i soggetti formano le loro aspettative. In particolare, la convergenza ad un equilibrio non di aspettative razionali si verifica allorché i soggetti non tengono conto nel loro apprendimento di una variabile rilevante che essi classificano come rumore bianco.

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Authors would like to thank an anonymous referee and all of those who gave comments and suggestions at theSociety of Economic Dynamics and Control Conference (SEDC) '94 (Los Angeles, CA-USA);International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks (ICANN) '94 (Salerno, Italy);World Conference on Neural Networks (WCNN) '94 (San Diego, CA-USA);AMASES '94 Conference (Modena, Italy). The usual disclaimers apply.     

MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT TO CAPITAL INFLOWS: LESSONS FROM RECENT LATIN AMERICAN AND EAST ASIAN EXPERIENCE

Capital inflows to some developing countries have increasedsharply in recent years. Impelled by better economic prospectsin those countries, lower international interest rates, anda slowdown of economic activity in the capital-exporting countries,the inflows have furnished financing much needed to increasethe use of existing capacity and to stimulate investment. Butcapital inflows can bring with them their own problems. Typicalmacroeconomic repercussions have been appreciation of the realexchange rate, expansion of nontradables at the expense of tradables,larger trade deficits, and, in regimes with a fixed exchangerate, higher inflation and an accumulation of foreign reserves. Should government intervene to limit some of these side effects—andif so, how? The question is especially pressing in the wakeof the Mexican crisis of December 1994. This article looks foranswers in the experience of four Latin American and five EastAsian countries between 1986 and 1993, examining the effectsof the capital inflows on the economy and comparing the differentways in which these countries responded to the problem of "toomuch" capital.      

Finance,investment and innovation: A theoretical and empirical comparative analysis

The paper compares the relative efficiency of country models in the relationship between finance and investments. Results, confirmed under three different panel data estimates (Arellano-Bond GMM method, random and fixed effect estimates) suggest that: i) the UK thick market reduces informational asymmetries for large firms and for those firms providing good signals to shareholders; ii) the Japanese vertical (between firms and banks) integration and horizontal (among firms) integration almost eliminates financial constraints (the horizontal integration effect) and equates agency costs across firms (the vertical integration effect). These results are consistent with the short-termist hypothesis which assumes that the Japanese economic system can process information more efficiently reducing managerial myopic behaviour and thereby determining positive effects on long term growth.     

Capital structure decisions: old issues,new insights from high-tech small- and medium-sized enterprises

Using panel data models and this study analyses the capital structure decisions of high-tech small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and non-high-tech SMEs. The results suggest that the capital structure decisions of high-tech SMEs are closer to what is predicted by the Pecking Order Theory. However, the results also suggest a modified version of the Pecking Order Theory for high-tech SMEs that have relied on venture capital. These firms prefer equity issues to debt, when internal finance is exhausted. The empirical evidence suggests that problems relating to information asymmetry as well as technological and market uncertainty influence the capital structure decisions of high-tech SMEs.     

Evaluating the FLQ and AFLQ formulae for estimating regional input coefficients: empirical evidence for the province of Córdoba,Argentina

This paper uses survey-based data of the Argentinian province of Córdoba to conduct an empirical test of the performance of the Flegg's location quotient (FLQ) and augmented FLQ (AFLQ) formulae for estimating regional input coefficients. A comparison is made with conventional methods based on location quotients. The possibility of using prior information about the extent of self-sufficiency of particular sectors is explored. The empirical work employs a range of statistical criteria with contrasting properties, and examines performance in terms of each method's ability to estimate regional input coefficients, output multipliers and imports. Particular attention is paid to the problem of choosing a value for the unknown parameter δ in the FLQ and AFLQ formulae. These formulae are found to give the best overall results of the non-survey methods considered in the paper. However, the AFLQ typically produces slightly more accurate results than the FLQ, in line with the findings of previous studies.     

Deadlines and software: disentangling local government accounting reforms in Brazil

ABSTRACT

This paper shows how ongoing accounting reforms in Brazilian local governments were affected by a shift from a universal to a gradual implementation approach. Deadlines being postponed led to a decrease in local governments’ willingness to reform. This effect varied according whether the accountants involved depended on commercial software to operate a particular accounting policy. An important finding from this research was that software providers are to some extent setting the IPSAS implementation agenda in Brazil.     

Theoretical considerations on the proposed of recovery of purchasing power of the minimum wage in Mexico

Regarding the recent proposal made by the Mexico City Government about the recovery of the purchasing power of the minimum wage, some reflections on the theories of production and distribution are proposed. We first review the seminal paper written by Cobb and Douglas (1928). Some obstacles in measuring the marginal factor products, and a pair of inconsistencies between the theories of production and distribution on the one hand, and some exercises of quantifying “productivities” on the other hand, are presented. Finally, a model of imperfect competition, which displays the dispute over income between economic agents, is included. One conclusion is that income distribution does not follow a simple rule, but a bargaining process based on market power in a historical context that provides inertia and in which institutions play a key role.     

The Brazilian wage curve: new evidence from the National Household Survey

This paper reconsiders the Brazilian wage curve using individual data from the National Household Survey at 27 Federative Units over the period 2002–2009. We find evidence in favor of the Brazilian wage curve with an unemployment elasticity of ?0.08. We also find that males in Brazil are significantly more responsive to local unemployment rates (?0.13) than their female counterparts. In fact, we find that the unemployment elasticity for women is statistically insignificant. Applying gender-specific unemployment rates, the elasticity for men decreases to ?0.09, while the elasticity for women remains statistically insignificant. This paper also finds that the estimates for Brazilian wage curve are completely different for the case of formal and informal workers.     

Intellectual capital and value creation in the production and assembly of vehicles and auto-parts sector in Brazil： A panel data analysis

This work investigates the relationship between intellectual capital and value creation in the sector of production and assembly of vehicles and auto-parts in Brazil. Through the access of the database from the annual industrial research conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, we gathered 865 observations, from 2000 to 2006, of public and private Brazilian companies with more than 100 employees. The database allows the estimate of relevant aggregated variables such as national accounts, gross domestic product, intermediate consumption, as well as propitiates a sectorial study of business strategies and performance, including value added by individual companies. In particular, in this study we use data on variables associated to intellectual capital. To achieve the goal of the study, we consider intellectual capital as defined by Pulic （2000, 2002）, including human capital and structural capital. For the analysis of business performance, we used Pulic＇s VAIC （Value Added Intellectual Cofficient） index as a measure of efficiency of the employed financial and intellectual capital. Regression models were run to verify the relationship among the efficiency in the use of intellectual capital and the profitability of Brazilian companies. The gross income, calculated as before selling, general and administrative expenses, depreciation expenses, amortization and interest expenses, was used as measure of the flows of value creation and the profitability was measured by the gross income to the total assets of the companies. Considering the constructs defined by Pulic （2000, 2002）, we tested, for the Brazilian sector of Production and Assembly of Vehicles and Auto-parts, the following hypotheses： （l） there is a positive relationship between value creation and intellectual capital, （2） there is a positive relationship between value creation and stock of intellectual capital, （3） there is a positive relationship between value creation and efficiency of the employed capital, （4） there is a positive relationship between value creation and efficiency of the human capital, （5） there is a positive relationship between value creation and efficiency of the structural capital. The results of the study, obtained through panel data analysis and through the use static and dynamic models, support the hypotheses that the intellectual capital of the companies, in its flow and stock dimensions, is positively and significantly related to value creation.