Fertility and Economic Growth: Do Immigrant Maids Play a Role?

A significant source of child-care services in East and South-East Asia are provided by immigrant maids. Using a modified version of the model used in Galor and Weil (1996), the present paper analyses the impact of this source of child-care services on women's labor market participation, fertility behavior and the household purchase of child-care services. The results show that a lower price for the maid service leads to a lower savings rate, a higher demand for children and less time being spent with children. We also find that hiring immigrant maids leads to lower economic growth in the long run.     

Cattle as a consistently resilient agricultural commodity

This study compares a range of agricultural commodities over periods of varying economic circumstances. These commodities are examined over three categories, including returns, risk, and contribution to portfolio optimisation. Consistency in these categories is determined over four equal three-year stages which comprise pre-GFC (Global Financial Crisis), GFC, post-GFC and post-post GFC. To demonstrate resilience in the most extreme circumstances, the study uses Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), which measures extreme risk in the tail of a distribution, as the risk measure and risk-return optimiser. The study thus provides a unique and comprehensive extreme-risk based focus which identifies and ranks the consistency of performance of agricultural commodities over a range of criteria and conditions. Cattle commodities consistently demonstrate the strongest overall performance in the categories examined.     

Growth and value hybrid valuation model based on mean reversion

This article proposes a novel valuation model, growth and value hybrid model, to estimate the stock price. This proposed model combines the essence of the asset-based approach, the income-based approach, and the principle of mean reversion to develop the theoretical closed-form formula consisting of three coefficients: value coefficient, value support coefficient and growth coefficient. Regression analysis is employed to fit market data to determine these coefficients. Moreover, this study proposes the double sorting method to build the quantile regression models of the formula to estimate the stock price at a specific quantile. The results show that the predictive capability of the hybrid valuation model is superior to the model without using value support coefficient, which supports the assumption that the PBR is not associated with the ROE when the ROE is less than a threshold. In different time periods of the stock market, no significant difference exists on the value support coefficient. However, the variations of the value coefficient and the growth coefficient are significant.     

Corporate governance in family-controlled firms in Taiwan

This paper examines the effects of ownership structure and board characteristics on performance in publicly traded Taiwanese firms that are controlled by founding families. Results show that when shares are owned by institutional investors, particularly foreign financial institutions, firms perform better. However, where families are the major shareholders, this is not the case. In addition, boards that are independent of the financial interests of the founding family have a positive impact on performance, whether measured by accounting ratios, operating performance or the stock market. (JEL: P52, G32)     

Real-world comparison of all-cause hospitalizations,hospitalizations due to stroke and major bleeding,and costs for non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients prescribed oral anticoagulants in a US health plan

Aims: To compare the risk of all-cause hospitalization and hospitalizations due to stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and major bleeding, as well as associated healthcare costs for non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients initiating apixaban, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, or warfarin.

Materials and methods: NVAF patients initiating apixaban, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, or warfarin were selected from the OptumInsight Research Database from January 1, 2013–September 30, 2015. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed between apixaban and each oral anticoagulant. Cox models were used to estimate the risk of stroke/SE and major bleeding. Generalized linear and 2-part models were used to compare healthcare costs.

Results: Of the 47,634 eligible patients, 8,328 warfarin-apixaban pairs, 3,557 dabigatran-apixaban pairs, and 8,440 rivaroxaban-apixaban pairs were matched. Compared to apixaban, warfarin patients were associated with a significantly higher risk of all-cause (hazard ratio [HR]?=?1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI]?=?1.21–1.40) as well as stroke/SE-related (HR?=?1.60; 95% CI?=?1.23–2.07) and major bleeding-related (HR?=?1.95; 95% CI?=?1.60–2.39) hospitalization; rivaroxaban patients were associated with a higher risk of all-cause (HR?=?1.15; 95% CI?=?1.07–1.24) and major bleeding-related hospitalization (HR?=?1.71; 95% CI?=?1.39–2.10); and dabigatran patients were associated with a higher risk of major bleeding hospitalization (HR?=?1.46, 95% CI?=?1.02–2.10). Warfarin patients had significantly higher major bleeding-related and total all-cause healthcare costs compared to apixaban patients. Rivaroxaban patients had significantly higher major bleeding-related costs compared to apixaban patients. No significant results were found for the remaining comparisons.

Limitations: No causal relationships can be concluded, and unobserved confounders may exist in this retrospective database analysis.

Conclusions: This study demonstrated a significantly higher risk of hospitalization (all-cause, stroke/SE, and major bleeding) associated with warfarin, a significantly higher risk of major bleeding hospitalization associated with dabigatran or rivaroxaban, and a significantly higher risk of all-cause hospitalization associated with rivaroxaban compared to apixaban. Lower major bleeding-related costs were observed for apixaban patients compared to warfarin and rivaroxaban patients.     

Revisiting Exports and Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam

Since 1986, Vietnam has undertaken various reform measures in the trade and foreign investment area. This paper finds significant contributions of world trade, and competitiveness and liberalization effects to Vietnam's export growth over the period 1997–2008. Vietnam's exports became more competitive and better complemented the import demand of Vietnam's trade partners. In addition, dynamic comparative advantage became evident in many products, but significant room remains for improving export competitiveness. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows also increased and helped stimulate Vietnam's exports. FDI inflows have increased in both the short‐ and long‐term, yet are only of a limited magnitude. This necessitates more effective measures to enhance the linkages between FDI and domestic enterprises.     

Do business strategies vary across firms in the banking industry? New perspectives from the bank size–profitability nexus

This study examines the roles of interdependence and policy variations across firms in the causality between bank size and profitability in Nigeria, using second-generation estimators and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel Granger non-causality test. The findings support different business strategies and policy variances across banks. Causality is found non-existent in the cases of 11 banks. A unidirectional causality from size to profitability is established in two banks while evidence of a unidirectional causality is established from profitability to bank size in the other two banks. This study concludes that cross-sectional dependence and policy variations across firms matter in the bank size–profitability nexus.     

Does the Confucius Institute Network Impact Cultural Distance? A Panel Data Analysis of Cross‐Border Flows in and out of China

This paper examines the impact of cultural distance in general and the Confucius Institute Network in particular on cross‐border flows of tourists, goods and investment in and out of China. We estimate a panel gravity model of inbound and outbound flows between 2004 and 2012. We find that the presence of Confucius Institute(s) in the source country increases inbound tourism and equity flows and outbound export and FDI flows for China, while other measures of cultural distance have less of an impact.     

Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users

With Monte Carlo experiments on models in widespread use we examine the performance of indirect inference (II) tests of DSGE models in small samples. We compare these tests with ones based on direct inference (using the Likelihood Ratio, LR). We find that both tests have power so that a substantially false model will tend to be rejected by both; but that the power of the II test is substantially greater, both because the LR is applied after re-estimation of the model error processes and because the II test uses the false model’s own restricted distribution for the auxiliary model’s coefficients. This greater power allows users to focus this test more narrowly on features of interest, trading off power against tractability.     

What Causes Banking Crises? An Empirical Investigation for the World Economy

We add the Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist model to a world model consisting of the US, the Euro-zone and the Rest of the World in order to explore the causes of the banking crisis. We test the model against linear-detrended data and reestimate it by indirect inference; the resulting model passes the Wald test only on outputs in the two countries. We then extract the model’s implied residuals on unfiltered data to replicate how the model predicts the crisis. Banking shocks worsen the crisis but ‘traditional’ shocks explain the bulk of the crisis; the non-stationarity of the productivity shocks plays a key role. Crises occur when there is a ‘run’ of bad shocks; based on this sample Great Recessions occur on average once every quarter century. Financial shocks on their own, even when extreme, do not cause crises—provided the government acts swiftly to counteract such a shock as happened in this sample.