基于第三方物流实施的延迟制造

目前针对由第三方物流企业实施的延迟制造研究很少。本文阐述了第三方物流提供的四种延迟制造服务以及该服务给第三方物流客户创造的价值。分析了第三方物流的组织方法——平台方法,也即资源共享方法。同时对第三方物流开展延迟制造业务提出了战略性建议,从而为第三方物流开展延迟制造业务提供了指南。     

Coupling urban expansion models and hydrological models: How important are spatial patterns?

It is well known that urban expansion has a severe impact on the surface water balance by transforming vegetated covers into sealed surfaces. This transformation causes changing fluxes of evapotranspiration, surface runoff and groundwater recharge. In order to estimate the impact of land cover changes on the surface hydrology, hydrological models are often coupled with different types of land cover change models. It is, however, not clear to what extent spatially-explicit urban expansion scenarios provide an added value in comparison with non-spatial urban expansion models at different scale levels. The objective of this paper is to acquire a better insight in the importance of scale effects involved in the coupling of urban expansion scenarios and hydrological models. The relative importance of using different projections of both (i) quantity and (ii) spatial patterns of urban expansion was analysed at four different scale levels. The highly urbanised Flanders–Brussels region was taken as an example application. Twelve different urban expansion scenarios for 2025 and 2050 were developed and subsequently used as an input in a spatially-distributed water balance model. The results obtained suggest that at the level of the Flanders–Brussels region, an accurate estimation of the quantity of urban expansion should get priority over an accurate projection of the spatial patterns. However, the importance of using accurate projections of the spatial pattern of urban expansion increases systematically at local scale levels. A uniform strategy for coupling urban expansion models and hydrological models thus seems inappropriate. These findings are highly relevant for water management and spatial planning policymakers that typically operate at different administrative levels.     

Fractional cointegration and futures hedging

This article examines the performance of various hedge ratios estimated from different econometric models: The FIEC model is introduced as a new model for estimating the hedge ratio. Utilized in this study are NSA futures data, along with the ARFIMA-GARCH approach, the EC model, and the VAR model. Our analysis identifies the prevalence of a fractional cointegration relationship. The effects of incorporating such a relationship into futures hedging are investigated, as is the relative performance of various models with respect to different hedge horizons. Findings include: (i) Incorporation of conditional heteroskedasticity improves hedging performance; (ii) the hedge ratio of the EC model is consistently larger than that of the FIEC model, with the EC providing better post-sample hedging performance in the return–risk context; (iii) the EC hedging strategy (for longer hedge horizons of ten days or more) incorporating conditional heteroskedasticty is the dominant strategy; (iv) incorporating the fractional cointegration relationship does not improve the hedging performance over the EC model; (v) the conventional regression method provides the worst hedging outcomes for hedge horizons of five days or more. Whether these results (based on the NSA index) can be generalized to other cases is proposed as a topic for further research. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 457–474, 1999     

Net private capital flows and economic growth–the case of emerging Asian economies

This article makes an exploratory empirical investigation into the relationship between net private capital flows and economic growth using a panel dataset from emerging Asian countries, namely South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines, over the period 1980–2001. Overall, this article indicates that net private capital helps to promote economic growth for the countries in the sample. In addition, this article also supports the view that net private capital flows will better contribute to economic growth under a sound policy and economic environment. This article also seeks to improve the estimation results by controlling for reverse causality as an econometric method that can control, for reverse causality is very important to examining the relationship between net private capital flows and economic growth. To tackle this issue, this article employs the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation technique, which is an econometric technique that can handle the reverse causality using the lagged explanatory variables as instruments.