Habits,Complementarities and Heterogeneity in Alcohol and Tobacco Demand: A Multivariate Dynamic Model*

In this paper we test the existence of forward‐looking behaviour in a multivariate model for alcohol and tobacco consumption. The theoretical framework, based on a dynamic adjustment cost model with forward‐looking behaviour, is enhanced to include the intertemporal interactions between the two goods. The analysis of the within‐period preferences completes the intertemporal model, allowing to evaluate the static substitutability/complementarity relationships. The empirical strategy consists in a two‐step estimation procedure. In a first stage, we obtain the parameters of the demand system, while in a second stage Euler equations are estimated. Results, based on a cohort data set constructed from a series of cross‐sections of the Italian Household Budget Survey, reveal a significant complementarity relationship between alcohol and tobacco. Estimation of the Euler equations does not lead to rejection of the hypothesis of intertemporal dependence, providing evidence for a forward‐looking behaviour in alcohol and tobacco consumption. Moreover, we find significant intertemporal interactions that support the adjustment cost setting in a multivariate model with rational expectations.     

Semi-analytical prices for lookback and barrier options under the Heston model

Decisions in Economics and Finance - Under the Heston stochastic volatility model, we derive semi-analytical formulas for the prices of path-dependent options with payoffs linked to the maximum or...     

Integrating parametric and non-parametric multivariate analysis of urban growth and commuting patterns in a European metropolitan area

Quality & Quantity - Mono-centric regions have experienced a progressive transformation towards polycentric structures. Transition to discontinuous and dispersed spatial configurations was...     

Simulation‐based tests of forward‐looking models under VAR learning dynamics

In this paper we propose a simulation‐based technique to investigate the finite sample performance of likelihood ratio (LR) tests for the nonlinear restrictions that arise when a class of forward‐looking (FL) models typically used in monetary policy analysis is evaluated with vector autoregressive (VAR) models. We consider ‘one‐shot’ tests to evaluate the FL model under the rational expectations hypothesis and sequences of tests obtained under the adaptive learning hypothesis. The analysis is based on a comparison between the unrestricted and restricted VAR likelihoods, and the p‐values associated with the LR test statistics are computed by Monte Carlo simulation. We also address the case where the variables of the FL model can be approximated as non‐stationary cointegrated processes. Application to the ‘hybrid’ New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in the euro area shows that (i) the forward‐looking component of inflation dynamics is much larger than the backward‐looking component and (ii) the sequence of restrictions implied by the cointegrated NKPC under learning dynamics is not rejected over the monitoring period 1984–2005. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SALES,INVENTORIES AND REAL INTEREST RATES: A CENTURY OF STYLIZED FACTS

We use Bayesian time‐varying parameter structural vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility to investigate changes in reduced‐form and structural correlations between inventories and either sales growth or the real interest rate in the USA during both the inter‐war and post‐World War II periods. We identify four structural shocks by combining a single long‐run restriction to identify a permanent output shock with three sign restrictions to identify demand‐ and supply‐side transitory shocks. We show that during both the inter‐war and post‐war periods the structural correlation between inventories and real interest rate conditional on identified interest rate shocks is systematically positive; the reduced‐form correlation between the two series is positive during the post‐war period, but in line with the predictions of theory it is robustly negative during the inter‐war era; during that era the correlations between inventories and either of the two other series exhibit a remarkably strong co‐movement with output at business cycle frequencies. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Growth and social capital: an evolutionary model

In this paper, we analyze the role of cooperation between firms through a model of growth and social capital. In a growth model à la Solow we incorporate the set of resources that a relational network has at its disposals, as a distinct production factor, and thus examine its dissemination through evolutionary type processes in firm interactions. Dynamic analysis of the model demonstrates that cooperation is able to increase the productivity of factors, fostering a higher rate of growth in the long term. The most significant result is that scarcity of social capital can produce a general collapse of the economic system in areas in which long term growth is usually sustained by the learning by doing and spillover of knowledge phenomena. This conclusion leads to reconsider the role of local development economic policies that should concentrate on activities that promote repeated interaction between firms proven to be cooperative or that encourage the formation of technological consortia.     

PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT IN SOLIDARITY ECONOMY ORGANIZATIONS: THE CASE OF FAIR TRADE SHOPS IN ITALY

ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to introduce a multidimensional assessment model for organizations that have multiple goals and are not driven exclusively by profit. Therefore, it is an assessment method particularly suitable for social enterprises. In order to measure the efficiency of production units in each dimension, the Data Envelopment Analysis non‐parametric method is applied. Our case study is concerned with Fair Trade shops and members of the consortium Altromercato for which we collected variables that could be associated with input and output for the economic, socio‐cultural and organizational dimensions. The results of the analysis confirm the presence of economies of scale in the economic dimension but not in the socio‐cultural dimension. Moreover, our organizational analysis confirmed a low general professionalization. Our results also confirm, on the one hand, the more pronounced capacity of cooperatives to sell Fair Trade products compared to associations, which, on the other hand, have the tendency to achieve proportionately better results in the socio‐cultural dimension.     

Fiscal adjustments,labour market flexibility and unemployment

Using a panel of 17 countries for 1978–2009, we find that tax-driven consolidations increase unemployment by 0.25 percentage points. Labour market flexibility mitigates this: a one-point rise in the flexibility index reduces youth (long-term) unemployment by 0.6–0.7 (1.8–2.2) percentage points.     

Endogenous codetermination

This research introduces endogenous codetermination in a Cournot duopoly. Unlike the received literature (Kraft, 1998), this work assumes that firms bargain with their own union bargaining units under codetermination if and only if they can choose an ad hoc bargaining effort by maximising profits (three-stage non-cooperative game). There are remarkable differences compared with the main findings of the exogenous codetermination literature. Indeed, there may exist asymmetric multiple (Pareto efficient) Nash equilibria in pure strategies. Mandatory codetermination, therefore, is Pareto worsening. Each firm can then use the union bargaining power as a strategic device in a Cournot setting.