Does ICT adoption improve access to credit for small enterprises?

Using data at the bank–firm level collected through the 9th UniCredit Survey conducted in 2012 on a large sample of small businesses, we investigate the extent to which a large international bank offers better credit conditions to enterprises that use ICT more extensively. The results, which are robust to selection and endogeneity issues, show that banks tend to grant increasing volumes of credit to such enterprises. We interpret this evidence as the ceteris paribus effect of ICT adoption by small businesses on the quality of information transmitted to banks. Another possible interpretation is that banks consider ICT adoption as a signal of firms’ willingness to innovate. We also discuss implications concerning the key role that technology plays in changing the ‘arm’s length’ versus ‘relationship’ lending paradigms.     

Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Prices in Italy: An Empirical Analysis

In this paper we analyze a time series of daily average prices in the Italian electricity market, which started to operate as a Pool in April 2004. Our objective is to model the high degree of autocorrelation and the multiple seasonalities in electricity prices. We use periodic time series models with GARCH disturbances and leptokurtic distributions and compare their performance with more classical ARMA-GARCH processes. The within-year seasonal variation is modelled using the low-frequency components of physical quantities, which are very regular throughout the sample. Our results reveal that much of the variability in the price series is explained by the interactions between deterministic multiple seasonalities. Periodic AR-GARCH models seem to perform quite well in mimicking the features of the stochastic part of the price process.

The South African disability grant: Influence on HIV treatment outcomes and household well-being in KwaZulu-Natal

This paper explores the implications of the disability grant for household members' well-being and adults' success on ART (antiretroviral therapy). It uses case studies based on data from an in-depth qualitative study of 10 households in KwaZulu-Natal. Receipt of the disability grant ensured that the basic needs of the HIV-infected adult could be met by other household members, especially when the grant was received when the person first met the qualifying criteria and in conjunction with ART. Where treatment was effective, HIV-infected adults were able to make substantial contributions to the well-being of other members in addition to the financial support provided by the grant itself. Thus, early access to financial support in conjunction with commencing ART may lead to improved health outcomes and reduce poverty and vulnerability associated with illness in poor households. This synergistic relationship between social welfare and treatment may in turn contribute to greater cost-efficiency.     

On policymakers’ loss functions and the evaluation of early warning systems: Comment

Sarlin (2013) suggests that if a loss function approach is chosen to derive the optimal threshold for financial crisis early warning indicators, the loss function specification should explicitly take into account the unconditional sample crisis probability. In this comment we argue that this approach is not robust to small perturbations of the preference parameter and is not easy to use for policy purposes. We suggest therefore to continue using a simpler loss function specification.     

Poverty,disputes, and access to justice in two Indonesian provinces

This analysis explores the determinants behind the unequal access to justice services among poor Indonesians. The study analyzes the stock of observed past disputes by socioeconomic group and the demand for conflict resolution services for unresolved conflicts or “trajectories.” It also models the hypothetical demand of justice services for future disputes. Results suggest that unequal access to justice might go beyond the financial costs of seeking justice and also depends on individual preferences and community infrastructure. These findings warn against focusing exclusively on formal justice costs to improve the equal access of the poor to conflict resolution services.     

Behavioral Economics and Public Opinion

On the basis of data from many nations, our forthcoming book asks and answers a question pressing in democratic and nondemocratic nations alike: What do citizens actually think about behaviorally informed policies?     

Adaptation to Climate Change: Commitment and Timing Issues

We study the impact of timing and commitment on adaptation and mitigation policies in the context of international environmental problems. Adaptation policies present the characteristics of a private good and may require a prior investment, while mitigation policies produce a public good. In a stylized model, we evaluate the impact of strategic commitment and leadership considerations when countries with different attitudes towards environmental cooperation coexist. We obtain equilibrium abatement and adaptation levels and environmental costs under partial cooperation for various timing and leadership scenarios. Crucially, global environmental costs suffered by countries are found to be greater when adaptation measures can be used strategically.     

Non‐Fundamentalness in Structural Econometric Models: A Review

Current economic theory typically assumes that all the macroeconomic variables belonging to a given economy are driven by a small number of structural shocks. As recently argued, apart from negligible cases, the structural shocks can be recovered if the information set contains current and past values of a large, potentially infinite, set of macroeconomic variables. However, the usual practice of estimating small size causal Vector AutoRegressions can be extremely misleading as in many cases such models could fully recover the structural shocks only if future values of the few variables considered were observable. In other words, the structural shocks may be non‐fundamental with respect to the small dimensional vector used in current macroeconomic practice. By reviewing a recent strand of econometric literature, we show that, as a solution, econometricians should enlarge the space of observations, and thus consider models able to handle very large panels of related time series. Among several alternatives, we review dynamic factor models together with their economic interpretation, and we show how non‐fundamentalness is non‐generic in this framework. Finally, using a factor model, we provide new empirical evidence on the effect of technology shocks on labour productivity and hours worked.     

Interlocking directorates in Italy: persistent links in network dynamics

In this work we study the time evolution of interlocking directorates in Italy from 1998 to 2011 by means of dynamical networks. Our purpose is to assess if in Italy there is a connected and stable structure, due to the presence of directors with multiple mandates, like it happens in the German case. We find a very cohesive network structure, due to the presence of a few directors with multiple assignments and, unlike the German case, this structure is stable, but not connected. Moreover we propose an alternative approach to investigate the dynamics, based on temporal networks, in order to quantify the variation of links in a certain time period. We construct a unique cumulative network, where nodes are companies and the existence of an edge is related with the persistence in time of an interlock between two companies. This persistence is due on the one hand to the ownership of a few family firms, and on the other hand to cross-shareholdings between companies. To complete the analysis we also investigate whether the link stability results from the appointments of the same director or from the stepping in/out of different directors.