Can social microblogging be used to forecast intraday exchange rates?

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is widely accepted to hold true under certain assumptions. One of its implications is that the prediction of stock prices at least in the short run cannot outperform the random walk model. Yet, recently many studies stressing the psychological and social dimension of financial behavior have challenged the validity of the EMH. Toward this aim, over the last few years, internet-based communication platforms and search engines have been used to extract early indicators of social and economic trends. Here, we used Twitter’s social networking platform to model and forecast the EUR/USD exchange rate in a high-frequency intradaily trading scale. Using time series and trading simulations analysis, we provide some evidence that the information provided in social microblogging platforms such as Twitter can in certain cases enhance the forecasting efficiency regarding the very short (intradaily) forex.     

Prostata Ca: Wie geht „Mann“ damit um?

Diagnose Prostatakrebs - Die Diagnose trifft die meisten M?nner v?llig unvor bereitet, die Zukunft erscheint ungewiss. In dieser Situation sollen Betroffene dann noch einen klaren Kopf bewahren und Therapieentscheidungen treffen, Nebenwirkungen und Prognosen abw?gen? Kein Wunder, dass viele damit überfordert sind. Pflegekr?fte auf der Urologie sind hier gefordert.     

Long‐run relations in European electricity prices

This paper analyses the interdependencies existing in wholesale electricity prices in six major European countries. The results of a robust multivariate long‐run dynamic analysis reveal the presence of four highly integrated central European markets (France, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria). The trend shared by these four electricity markets appears to be common also to gas prices, but not to oil prices. The existence of a common long‐term dynamics among electricity prices and between electricity prices and gas prices can be explained by the similarity of the market design across Europe and by the same marginal generation technology. Since standard unit root and cointegration tests are not robust to the peculiar characteristics of electricity prices time series, we also develop a battery of robust inference procedures that should assure the reliability of our results. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

‘Better safe than sorry’: consumer perceptions of and deliberations on nanotechnologies

Although nanotechnologies are considered key technologies that can drive growth‐generating innovations in well‐saturated markets, worldwide investment in nanotechnologies has to date focused largely on technology‐related development programmes and little effort has been expended to research associated risks. As a result, even though prior discourses have sensitized western consumers to potential health‐related dangers, solid knowledge on, for example, the toxicological and eco‐toxicological risks and unintended side effects of nanotechnology are scarce. This paper therefore presents an overview of the current evidence on consumer knowledge and perceptions of nanotechnology and public engagement with it, with a focus on the US, the UK and Germany. Overall, even though survey data suggest that awareness of the term ‘nanotechnology’ has risen slightly, today's consumers are generally ill informed about its nature and its applications in consumer‐related products. Hence, based on our analysis of these data, we argue that early political engagement in the nanotechnology issue – for example, consumer policy options that support consumer interest in the marketing of ‘nanos’– would facilitate objective public discourse.     

The distribution of household consumption-expenditure budget shares

This paper explores the statistical properties of household consumption-expenditure budget share distributions – defined as the share of household total expenditure spent for purchasing a specific category of commodities – for a large sample of Italian households in the period 1989–2004. We find that household budget share distributions are fairly stable over time for each specific category, but profoundly heterogeneous across commodity categories. We then derive a parametric density that is able to satisfactorily characterize (from a univariate perspective) household budget share distributions and: (i) is consistent with the observed statistical properties of the underlying levels of household consumption-expenditure distributions; (ii) can accommodate the observed across-category heterogeneity in household budget-share distributions. Finally, we taxonomize commodity categories according to the estimated parameters of the proposed density. We show that the resulting classification is consistent with the traditional economic scheme that labels commodities as necessary, luxury or inferior.     

Credit card debt and consumption: evidence from household-level data

This research investigates the relationship between credit card debt and consumption using household level data. This is a departure from the previous studies which have used aggregate measures of consumption and general debt such as the Debt Service Ratio or total revolving credit. We use a detailed monthly survey of credit card use to impute credit card debt to respondents from the Consumer Expenditure Survey sample. In contrast to some earlier studies using aggregate data, we find a negative relationship between debt and consumption growth. Our work shows that a $1000 increase in credit card debt results in a decrease in quarterly consumption growth of almost 2%. Investigations are also made into effects of debt within different age categories and into the impact of expected income growth on the debt–consumption relationship.