Mean reversion in stock index futures markets: A nonlinear analysis

Several stylized theoretical models of futures basis behavior under nonzero transactions costs predict nonlinear mean reversion of the futures basis towards its equilibrium value. Nonlinearly mean‐reverting models are employed to characterize the basis of the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 indices over the post‐1987 crash period, capturing empirically these theoretical predictions and examining the view that the degree of mean reversion in the basis is a function of the size of the deviation from equilibrium. The estimated half lives of basis shocks, obtained using Monte Carlo integration methods, suggest that for smaller shocks to the basis level the basis displays substantial persistence, while for larger shocks the basis exhibits highly nonlinear mean reversion towards its equilibrium value. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:285–314, 2002     

Ethics and multinational corporations vis-à-vis developing nations

The ethical dilemma of large-scale multinational corporations is presented. The list of complaints and issues is summarized. A case is made for the concept of multinationals being inherently beneficial in today's world of high technology and dependence on international trade. The difficulty is extreme power wielded by some groups. It is concluded that a philosophical ideal is for control on size and power as well as international rules to prevent abuses of power. The concern is that today the worthiness of being relatively small is slowly but surely being eroded.     

Spot and forward volatility in foreign exchange

This paper investigates the empirical relation between spot and forward implied volatility in foreign exchange. We formulate and test the forward volatility unbiasedness hypothesis, which may be viewed as the volatility analogue to the extensively researched hypothesis of unbiasedness in forward exchange rates. Using a new dataset of spot implied volatility quoted on over-the-counter currency options, we compute the forward implied volatility that corresponds to the delivery price of a forward contract on future spot implied volatility. This contract is known as a forward volatility agreement. We find strong evidence that forward implied volatility is a systematically biased predictor that overestimates movements in future spot implied volatility. This bias in forward volatility generates high economic value to an investor exploiting predictability in the returns to volatility speculation and indicates the presence of predictable volatility term premiums in foreign exchange.     

A century of equity premium predictability and the consumption–wealth ratio: An international perspective

This paper re-examines the predictive ability of the consumption–wealth ratio (cay) on the equity premium using hand-collected annual data spanning one century for four major economies. In addition to statistical tests of out-of-sample forecast accuracy, we measure the economic value of the predictive information in cay in a stylized asset allocation strategy. We find that cay does not contain predictive power prior to World War II, when a structural break occurs for all countries. In the postwar period, while statistical tests provide mixed evidence, economic criteria uncover substantial predictive power in cay, further enhanced when allowing for economically meaningful restrictions.     

Managing Oneself in Role: A Working Tool for the Management of Change

Changes in the nature of work and in organizational structures in the UK public sector have had a major impact on working roles and relationships. The authors explore whether a new approach to organizational role could help managers in HM Customs and Excise to meet the changing demands and challenges now facing them. A dynamic, rather than bureaucratic, view of role is required, which can support flexible working patterns and encourage innovation. Role should be seen as a method or 'working tool', rather than a prescribed set of behaviours, and being provisional, it is something to be worked with, rather than fixed and merely learned by rote. This conceptualization of role can contribute significantly to the implementation of change initiatives.     

Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants

This article focuses on the determinants of the large portfolioflows from the United States to Latin American and Asian countriesduring 1988–92. Cointegration techniques reveal that bothdomestic and global factors explain bond and equity flows todeveloping countries and represent significant long-run determinantsof portfolio flows. The article also investigates the dynamicsof portfolio flows by estimating seemingly unrelated error-correctionmodels. Global and country-specific factors are equally importantin determining the long-run movements in equity flows for bothAsian and Latin American countries, while global factors aremuch more important than domestic factors in explaining thedynamics of bond flows. U.S. interest rates are a particularlyimportant determinant of the short-run dynamics of portfolio,especially bond, flows to developing countries.     

Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle

We provide empirical evidence that deviations from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transactions costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less indicative of major market inefficiencies than previously thought. Monte Carlo experiments allow us to reconcile these results with the large empirical literature on the forward bias puzzle since we show that, if the true process of UIP deviations were of the nonlinear form we consider, estimation of conventional spot-forward regressions would generate the anomalies documented in previous research.This paper was partly written while Lucio Sarno was a Visiting Scholar at the International Monetary Fund. Financial support from the Economic and Social Research Council (Grant No. RES-000-22-0404) is gratefully acknowledged. The authors are indebted for useful conversations or constructive comments to Josef Zechner (editor), three anonymous referees, Ulf Axelson, Magnus Dahlquist, Paul De Grauwe, Hans Dewachter, John Driffill, Bob Flood, Gordon Gemmill, Campbell Harvey, Peter Kenen, Rich Lyons, Angelo Melino, Chris Neely, Anthony Neuberger, Carol Osler, David Peel, Dagfinn Rime, Piet Sercu, Per Str?mberg, Shinji Takagi, Gabriel Talmain, Mark Taylor, Timo Ter?svirta, Dan Thornton, Shang-Jin Wei, Mike Wickens and Mark Wohar, as well as to participants at the 2005 European Finance Association Annual Conference, Moscow; 2004 Society of Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Annual Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; the 2004 European Financial Management Association Conference, Basel; and seminars at the International Monetary Fund, Swedish Institute for Financial Research, Central Bank of Norway, University of Oxford, Catholic University of Leuven, University ofWarwick, Chinese University of Hong Kong, York University, University of Exeter, University of Kent, and University of Edinburgh. The authors alone are responsible for any errors that may remain and for the views expressed in the paper.     

Corporate Governance, Board Diversity, and Firm Value

This study examines the relationship between board diversity and firm value for Fortune 1000 firms. Board diversity is defined as the percentage of women, African Americans, Asians, and Hispanics on the board of directors. This research is important because it presents the first empirical evidence examining whether board diversity is associated with improved financial value. After controlling for size, industry, and other corporate governance measures, we find significant positive relationships between the fraction of women or minorities on the board and firm value. We also find that the proportion of women and minorities on boards increases with firm size and board size, but decreases as the number of insiders increases.     

Preventing unintentional childhood injury at home: injury circumstances and interventions

New Zealand's (NZ) preschoolers carry the greatest injury burden among children aged 0-14 years. These injuries commonly occur at home. To identify how NZ addresses child injury the 1990s national injury datasets and associated free text were examined retrospectively, NZ injury circumstances and interventions were compared to internationally recognised hazards and best practice, and whether NZ interventions addressed common circumstances of injury was assessed. Certain injuries, often associated with activities of daily living, were not addressed by interventions, although most interventions advocated internationally are implemented in NZ. Possible reasons for main injuries not being addressed were the specificity and variable effectiveness of interventions, normality of many injury circumstances, difficulties in evaluating complex environments, and the need for active intervention. There is considerable scope for NZ to improve its child safety. It is unlikely that simple solutions will be found for complex circumstances in which injury events occur. Strategies to address multifaceted problems requiring changes to personal, social and societal factors are required, with evaluation methods able to match their complexity.