An unlikely Phoenix: The recovery of Argentina’s monetary and financial system from its ashes in the 2000s and its lessons

The study discusses the recovery of the Argentine financial system after the crisis of the so called convertibility regime of the 1990s. The Argentine macroeconomic regime established in 1991 and based on the hard peg of the peso to the dollar at a 1 to 1 parity ended in a multiple crisis in 2001–2. Beyond the default on the public debt, the crisis also involved the breakdown of the domestic financial system, and an almost complete isolation of the country from the international financial markets as a consequence of the default. Under such a deep crisis and the consequent uncertainty, the recovery of the solvency of the financial institutions was an almost insurmountable enterprise. However, with a gradualist approach (contrary to the advice of the International Monetary Fund) and a degree of “regulatory forbearance,” the financial and monetary authorities were able to recover the health of the financial system, which became much more resilient to shocks, even if its development has been very slow and, as a consequence, the contribution of domestic credit to the economic expansion of the 2000s can be considered almost negligible.     

A Comparison of the Forecasting Accuracy of the Futures and Forward Markets for Foreign Exchange

Theoretical differences between the futures markets and the forward markets for foreign exchange suggest significant differences in the forecasting accuracy of these two markets. The findings of this research suggest that there is a statistically significant difference in the mean percentage forecast errors of the two markets, but this difference is small and probably not of economic significance. Therefore, the managers of multinational firms could expect to get almost equally effective forecasts from the two markets.     

Intermittent work activity and earnings

Patterns of intermittent work activity appear to be more common in the modern labour market, at least for younger workers. This study extends earlier models of the relationship between labour market intermittency and earnings to include both part time work and nonparticipation, to differentiate between past work experience and current job tenure, to allow for nonlinear experience effects, and to account for selection bias arising from the exclusion of nonworkers. The results suggest that the effects of part time work and nonparticipation on earnings are similar. Moreover, some common patterns emerge: the effects are larger for women, greater for young workers, and greater when intermittency replaces current job tenure.     

Industrial relations and the management of flexibility: factors shaping developments in Spain and the United Kingdom

Any analysis of workforce flexibility within particular countries needs to take account not only of the character of industrial relations and union organization at workplace and company levels, but also of how actions at those levels are influenced by broader regulatory arrangements covering employment and work practices. In other words, to avoid the over-simplifications and over-generalizations which much of the flexibility debate has in the past been (correctly) accused of and to expand the analysis offered by the relatively broad-brush, multi-country studies, it is necessary to locate issues of flexibility more securely within both existing national regulatory and institutional frameworks, and also to take account of patterns of union organization and job regulation at the local level, and the ways unions and workforces have responded to (and at times even shaped) different flexibility initiatives by employers. By analysing different types of enterprise in Spain and the United Kingdom, this article seeks to illustrate the role and significance of these factors for the particular development of workforce flexibility in the two countries.     

Spot and forward volatility in foreign exchange

This paper investigates the empirical relation between spot and forward implied volatility in foreign exchange. We formulate and test the forward volatility unbiasedness hypothesis, which may be viewed as the volatility analogue to the extensively researched hypothesis of unbiasedness in forward exchange rates. Using a new dataset of spot implied volatility quoted on over-the-counter currency options, we compute the forward implied volatility that corresponds to the delivery price of a forward contract on future spot implied volatility. This contract is known as a forward volatility agreement. We find strong evidence that forward implied volatility is a systematically biased predictor that overestimates movements in future spot implied volatility. This bias in forward volatility generates high economic value to an investor exploiting predictability in the returns to volatility speculation and indicates the presence of predictable volatility term premiums in foreign exchange.     

The Economic Benefits of the Biological Control of Rabbits in Australia, 1950–2011

Wild European rabbits are serious agricultural and environmental pests in Australia; myxoma virus and rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus have been used as biocontrol agents to reduce impacts. We review the literature on changes in rabbit numbers together with associated reports on the economic benefits from controlling rabbits on agricultural production. By using loss–expenditure frontier models in with and without biocontrol scenarios, it is conservatively estimated that biological control of rabbits produced a benefit of A$70 billion (2011 A$ terms) for agricultural industries over the last 60 years. The consequences for ongoing rabbit control and research investment are discussed.     

A century of equity premium predictability and the consumption–wealth ratio: An international perspective

This paper re-examines the predictive ability of the consumption–wealth ratio (cay) on the equity premium using hand-collected annual data spanning one century for four major economies. In addition to statistical tests of out-of-sample forecast accuracy, we measure the economic value of the predictive information in cay in a stylized asset allocation strategy. We find that cay does not contain predictive power prior to World War II, when a structural break occurs for all countries. In the postwar period, while statistical tests provide mixed evidence, economic criteria uncover substantial predictive power in cay, further enhanced when allowing for economically meaningful restrictions.     

Do Nonprofit Hospitals Exercise Market Power?

Several theories of nonprofit hospitals behavior predict that nonprofit hospitals behave in the consumer interest and thus do not exercise market power. If these theories are correct, then antitrust enforcement of hospital mergers should be restricted only to those markets in which a nonprofit hospital cannot offset anticompetitive behavior by for-profit hospitals. In this paper, we examine the relationship between price and market concentration among nonprofit hospitals in California in 1993. We find that nonprofit hospitals set higher prices in more concentrated markets. This result suggests that antitrust enforcement should challenge those mergers of nonprofit hospitals that create market power without creating offsetting efficiencies.     

The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond

A large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the forward rate is not an optimal predictor of the spot rate. However, there is evidence that the term structure of forward premia contains valuable information for forecasting future spot exchange rates and that exchange rate dynamics display nonlinearities. This paper proposes a term-structure forecasting model of exchange rates based on a regime-switching vector equilibrium correction model which is novel in this context. Our model significantly outperforms both a random walk and, to a lesser extent, a linear term-structure vector equilibrium correction model for four major dollar rates across a range of horizons.