Walking up the Down Escalator: Public Investment and Fiscal Stability

When growth-promoting spending is cut so much that the presentvalue of future government revenues falls by more than the immediateimprovement in the cash deficit, fiscal adjustment becomes likewalking up the down escalator. Although short-term cash flowsmatter, too tight a focus on them encourages governments toinvest too little. Cash-flow targets also encourage governmentsto shift investment spending off budget by seeking private investmentin public projects, irrespective of its real fiscal or economicbenefits. To deal with this problem, some observers have suggestedexcluding certain investments (such as those undertaken by publicenterprises deemed commercial or financed by multilaterals)from cash-flow targets. These stopgap remedies may help protectsome investments, but they do not provide a satisfactory solutionto the underlying problem. Governments can more effectivelyreduce the biases created by the focus on short-term cash flowsby developing indicators of the long-term fiscal effects oftheir decisions, including accounting and economic measuresof net worth, and, where appropriate, including such measuresin fiscal targets or even fiscal rules. JEL codes: O23, E62, H60, H54     

Is default risk the hidden factor in momentum returns? Some empirical results

This paper analyzes the role of default risk in the momentum effect focusing on data from four developed European stock markets (France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom). Using a market‐based measure of default risk, we show that it is not the hidden factor behind this effect. While the loser portfolio is characterized by high default risk, small size, high book‐to‐market and illiquidity, characterization of the winner portfolio is somewhat more complex. Given that the momentum strategy is the return differential between the winners and the losers, factors such as the stock market cycle or the evolution of momentum portfolios against their reference point make momentum profits difficult to forecast.     

Illiquidity Premium in the MILA

This article analyzes the illiquidity premium in the MILA. Using seven proxies for illiquidity, we find a positive and significant illiquidity premium for our sample. A microstructure bias-free portfolio weighting based on past returns is critical in our finding of an illiquidity premium, which is robust to several methodological changes in our portfolio simulations. We also document that the premium is present only in small and high book-to-market stocks. Nonetheless, when we control for size and distress effects, the difference and significance in risk-adjusted returns between portfolios of high and low illiquidity stocks remains.     

The α-stable processes and their relationship with the exponent of self-similarity: Exchange rates of USA Dollar,Canadian Dollar,Euro and Yen

This research work analyzes the yields of the exchange rate parities of the American dollar, Canadian dollar, Euro, and Yen; estimates the basic statistics and the α-stables; carries out the Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling, and Lilliefors goodness of fit tests; estimates the self-similar exponents and carries out the t and F tests, ruling out that the series of parities are multifractal. It also estimates the confidence intervals of the exchange rate parities and concludes that the estimated α-stable distributions are more efficient than the Gaussian distribution to quantify the risks of the market, and that the series are self-similar. Through the ? index, we can infer the risk of the events, indicating that the parities are anti-persistent and thus have short-term memory, mean reversion, and a negative correlation with the high risk in the short and medium term. The estimation and validation of the α-stable distributions and the self-similar exponent are important in the evaluation and creation of innovative investment instruments through financial engineering, risk administration, and the evaluation of derived products.     

Necessity as the mother of ‘green’ inventions: Institutional pressures and environmental innovations

Drawing on institutional theory and innovation literature, we argue that greater regulatory and normative pressures concerning environmental issues positively influence companies' propensity to engage in environmental innovation. Analysis of environment‐related patents of 326 publicly traded firms from polluting industries in the United States suggests that institutional pressures can trigger such innovation, especially in those firms displaying a greater deficiency gap (i.e., firms polluting relatively more than their industry peers). Moreover, we find that this effect is stronger when asset specificity is high, and that the availability of resources plays different roles depending on the type of pressures (regulatory vs. normative).Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trust,acceptance and knowledge of technological and environmental hazards in Chile

Studies over the past decade have found empirical links between trust in risk management institutions and the risk perceptions and acceptability of various individual hazards. Mostly addressing food technologies, no study to date has explored wider possible relationships among all four core variables (risk, benefit, trust and acceptability) covering a heterogeneous group of hazards. Our prime objective was to ascertain effects among social trust in regulatory entities, and the public's perceived risk, perceived benefit and the degree of acceptability towards both technological and environmental hazards. We also assess whether trust in regulatory authorities is the cause (causal model) or a consequence (associationist model) of a hazard's acceptability for a wide and heterogeneous range of hazards on all four core variables. Using a web‐based survey, 539 undergraduates in Chile rated the five variables across 30 hazards. Implications for technology and environmental risk management organizations are discussed. Independent of the magnitude of the perceived risk or benefit surrounding a given hazard, or how knowledgeable the public claim to be of it, the trust sustained in regulatory institutions will either generate or be the consequence of public attitudes towards the hazard.     

Improving Skewness of Mean-Variance Portfolios

Abstract

The widely accepted belief that asset returns and insurance product line margins are not normally distributed has motivated the use of skewness (or higher than second-order moments) in the context of optimal risk-reward portfolio allocation. Here we propose an optimization-based methodology to substantially improve the skewness of portfolios in the mean-variance efficient frontier. Unlike other related methods, the proposed methodology is very intuitive, noniterative, and simple to implement, and it can be readily and efficiently carried out using state-of-the-art optimization solvers. These characteristics should be very appealing to risk managers.     

Vocational skills in the accounting professional profile: the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA) employers' opinion

The increasingly dynamic environment in which accountants work has necessitated a reorientation of accounting education. In some countries this issue has raised great interest amongst accounting educators and practitioners. The ongoing debate has already resulted in the publication of several statements and research papers that have raised the question of the relevance of the role of vocational skills in accounting education. Examples of these vocational skills are communication skills, interpersonal skills, and problem-solving skills. This paper reports on the importance that the employers of management accountants gave to a specified set of vocational skills and capabilities and the level of ability of these skills exhibited by students. In order to prioritize future developments an integrated analysis of the two attributes, importance and exhibited level, is enabled by the use of strategic mapping. The results of this study suggest that the employers perceive deficiencies in several capabilities that they have identified as being quite important. These deficiencies exist, in the employers' opinion, both prior to recruitment and on professional qualification. The research also indicates that, in the opinion of these employers, the development of these skills should be a central concern for universities and professional bodies. The employers also indicated that vocational skills should be attained in an integrated way.     

What is different about urban activities of those with access to ICTs? Some early evidence from Québec,Canada

The first wave, conducted in 2002–2003, of an in-depth panel survey in Quebec City, was used to compare the out-of-home activities of adults who had the use of mobile phones, or of internet at home, to those who did not. A unique feature of the survey was the inclusion of respondents’ perceptions of the both the temporal and the spatial flexibility of all executed activities. We find, after statistical controls for other factors, that mobile phone use was positively associated with activity and trip levels, while internet access was negatively associated. These two ICTs also had mostly opposite relationships with the routinisation and pre-arrangement of activities and with some conventionally defined sub-classes of activity.