中国农民工供给态势与“十二五”时期走向

我国农村劳动力转移已进入总体上仍然过剩,但结构性供求矛盾开始突出,农村劳动力供求关系正从长期供过于求转向总量过剩,结构短缺的新阶段。促进农村劳动力转移仍将是我国中长期的重要任务。十二五以及更长时间内,要做好劳动力转移工作,必须把产业结构优化调整放在重要的位置,坚持发展服务业,有序积极推进农民工市民化工作,进一步增加对农村居民培训的投入,提高农村劳动力的受教育程度和技能水平,进而促进社会和谐发展。     

Effects of hiring former employees of multinationals in the absorptive capacity of local firms

The attraction of foreign direct investment seeks, among other things, to increase the productivity of local companies through knowledge spillovers. However, the empirical evidence in this regard is contradictory. One influential factor is the absorptive capacity of the local companies. This article analyzes the effect of the presence of former employees of multinational corporations as employees of local companies, on the absorptive capacity of said companies. The study was done in Costa Rica, a country known for its successful strategy in the subject matter. The data come from a survey applied to 1167 companies by the Observatorio Costarricense de las Pymes in 2011. It was found that the hiring of former employees of multinational corporations by local companies has a positive effect on the index of absorptive capacity of companies in all productive sectors. Specifically, this hiring of former employees increases the index of absorptive capacity by nine percentage points, with differences by sector and the size of the company.     

Influence of perceived risk on entrepreneurial desirability and feasibility: multidimensional approach for nascent entrepreneurs

This study examines the influence of perceived risk on entrepreneurial desirability and feasibility as determining factors in the intention to start a self-owned business. Specifically, a multidimensional approach is taken to examine the different types of risks associated with entrepreneurship: economic, social, time, health and personal risks. The results obtained from a sample of 376 new entrepreneurs in Mexico confirm the fact that the perceived desirability and feasibility have a significant and positive effect on the intentions to start their own company. On one hand, the empirical evidence obtained shows a heterogenic effect of the risk dimensions associated with entrepreneurship on the perceived desirability and feasibility in their behaviour. Therefore, it was found that the economic risk associated with entrepreneurship has a negative effect on the feasibility to start a business, but does not significantly influence the desirability of that behaviour. On the other hand, a significant effect from the risk related to health is not seen on desirability and feasibility, but the negative influence of personal risk is empirically supported for both variables. Finally, the results obtained related to social and time risk are contradictory. Social risk negatively influences entrepreneurship desirability, but a positive effect is observed on the feasibility to create a business. For its part, the empirical evidence obtained does not support any effect of the time risk on the perceived feasibility of starting a business, but there is a positive on entrepreneurship desirability. These results, which are contrary to the traditional concept of risk as a barrier to entrepreneurship, are justified by the vocational nature of this behaviour and by the social sacrifices that are sometimes necessary to be able to make a business work.     

Rivaroxaban for non-valvular atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism in the Netherlands: a real-world data based cost-effectiveness analysis

Background: Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) have been included in international guidelines as important alternatives to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) for the treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, NOACs are widely used next to VKAs. The objective of this study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of treatment with rivaroxaban compared to VKAs in NVAF and VTE patients in the Netherlands, using data from international prospective observational phase IV studies.

Methods: Two models were developed to represent NVAF and VTE patients, populated with patients from the XANTUS (NCT01606995) and XALIA (NCT01619007) international prospective observational studies. The 1-year cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban use, compared to VKAs, was explored in a population consisting of NVAF and VTE patients (base case) as well as for four scenarios with sub-populations: NVAF patients only, VTE patients only, NVAF patients with unstable international normalized ratio (INR), and NVAF patients using an INR self-measuring device.

Results: In the base case, rivaroxaban saved €72,350 and gained 21 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in a simulation of 2,000 patients over the use of VKAs. Ergo, rivaroxaban was dominant over VKAs. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed a probability of 85% for rivaroxaban being dominant and 100% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000/QALY. Rivaroxaban appeared to be dominant in all scenarios as well, except for the NVAF-patients-only scenario where the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was €157/QALY.

Conclusions: In patients with NVAF or VTE, rivaroxaban treatment is likely to be cost-effective and a potentially cost-saving alternative to VKA in the Netherlands.     

A note on how to measure hubbing practices in airline networks

Benefits and costs associated to hubbing practices of airlines are still subject to much debate. In the previous literature, some standard spatial concentration indices have been proposed to measure it. However, we show that these indices are “ill-defined” because they do not take into account the salient characteristic of hubbing: connecting passengers. The purpose of this research is to present a new methodology which avoids the pitfalls of other methods. Our new methodology also analyzes the level of concentration of the connecting passengers studying two different dimensions: hub airports and routes. Finally, we apply our methodology to some US carriers.     

Regional and Sector-specific Determinants of Industry Dynamics and the Displacement–replacement Effects

In this paper, we empirically assess the importance of regional and sector-specific determinants of industry dynamics. To this aim we test three hypotheses (originally proposed by Shapiro and Khemani (1987, Int J Indust Organ 5:15–26)) for the relationship between the entry and exit of firms: independence, symmetry and simultaneity. Estimates from a panel data system of equations seem to confirm the simultaneity hypothesis for Spain, i.e. we find evidence of a displacement (replacement) effect between the gross rate of entry (exit) and the gross rate of exit (entry). Also, our results show that, irrespective of the hypothesis we use, both sectorial and regional variables affect entry and exit.

Value at Risk and Economic Growth

The improvement of data statistics as well as the econometrician methods have facilitated the introduction the new variables and factors I the economic growth analysis. In this sense, real variables have mainly been considered in the economic growth studies, but not financial or risk management aspects. In this sense, it is interesting to analyze the relationship between economic growth and value at risk and the feed-back process. The goal of the paper is to analyze the relationship between economic growth and risk management and the feed-back process. We will consider economic variables, including economic growth, rule of law, human capital, fiscal policy and monetary policy, among others, in our analysis. We will analyze the theoretical relationships between these variables and risk and the effects of risk on economic growth. We will also develop an empirical analysis considering the case of 15 European Union countries.

Cost-effective compensation to avoid carbon emissions from forest loss: An approach to consider price-quantity effects and risk-aversion

Analyses were carried out on financial compensation to avoid loss of tropical forests and related carbon (C) emissions when marginal financial yield declined for land-use options with extended areas, and when a risk-averting perspective (modeled according to financial theory around the capital asset pricing model) is assumed. The approach in this study was to consider natural forest, forest plantation, pasture, and cropland simultaneously to investigate how an optimized land-use distribution may reduce the amount of compensation necessary to avoid C emissions from forest loss.The financial compensations derived were as high as US$ 176 per hectare per year when comparing natural forests only with the most profitable alternative (croplands). However, compensation decreased to US$ 124 for risk-neutral decision-makers, who would strive for optimized land-use allocation, and to only US$ 47 per hectare per year for risk-avoiders, who would look to maximize the reward-to-variability ratio. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the compensation under risk-aversion increased much less than under risk-ignoring when increased productivity of agricultural land-use or growing demand for agricultural products was simulated. It was concluded that considering appropriate diversification strategies and the well documented human behavior to avoid risks is an important step in developing cost-effective compensation policies.     

Equilibrium price formation in markets with differentially informed agents

We consider a pure exchange economy with a finite set of types of agents which have incomplete and asymmetric information on the states of nature. Our aim was to describe the equilibrium price formation and analyze how the lack of information may affect the allocation of resources. To do so, we adapt to an asymmetric information scenario a variant of the Shapley–Shubik game introduced by Dubey and Geanakoplos (J Math Econ 39:391–400, 2003 ).