The World Bank and poverty

During the 1970s it was World Bank policy to use its funds to raise the productivity and living standards of the poor. It has increased its lending for sector and subsectors considered to offer the most direct benefits to the poor such as rural development, population, health, and nutrition. Projects with particular emphasis on poverty have benefitted large numbers of poor people and have had good economic rates of return. Lending for rural projects increased in the 1970s from US$2.6 billion in 1969-73 to over US$13 billion in 1978-81; rural development projects audited in 1979 benfitted 660 small farmers for every US$1 million loaned compared with 47 farmers/US$1 million in other agricultural projects. Some problems are: 1) low-risk technical packages appropriate for poor farmers in semi-arid rainfed areas are not readily available; 2) the Bank's rural development strategy seeks mainly to raise the production of small farms, but other aspects need to be emphasized; 3) domestic pricing and postharvest policies often undermine the success of projects aimed at the rural poor; and 4) success in rural development often rests on sociological and cultural factors, difficult areas that deserve more attention. For urban areas the Bank has strongly endorsed providing "sites and sources" instead of structures; since 1972, 52 Bank projects centered on urban shelter involving US$1.6 billion have been undertaken. Cost recovery is established at 66-95%. About 5% of Bank lending is for education and despite the importance of population, health, and nutrition, these areas absorb less than 1% of the Bank's total lending program. Only US$400 million in population loans were made to 13 countries in the 1970s and only recently have separate health projects been started. Emphasis for the 1980s must be on rural development, urban shelter, primary education, health, education, and population.     

关于美国累进税的论争

怎样对累进税率结构的合理性或非合理性作出正确判断,是一个要进行充分研究的问题。这里,我们只是有选择地介绍一些就这个问题所展开的论争中的主要论点。一、赞成累进税制的一些理由学者们发现,美国的纳税人一般并不十分关心国民“税收负担”的分配,而对于累进税制的真正含意也只有一个模糊的概念。有人认为。     

一个加拿大农业经济计量模型

本文提出一个加拿大农业部门的年度经济计量模型。利用这个模型可确定以下10个内生变量:即资本形成总值,每个农业工人的农业产值,农业工人数,农业总收入,农业纯收入,农业投资货物的价格,农产品价格,农业工资率,实际的农业固定资本折旧和总的农场经营费用。这10个内生变量取决于下列一组外生变量:农用土地面积,平民劳动力总数,实际的国内农业总产值,机器设备的商业价格指数,非住宅建筑价格指数,非农     

财政在实现节约制度中的作用

一在第一个五年计划审查和批准的期间,中华人民共和国大力开展了历行节约的斗争。这并不是一个偶然巧合的现象,它是完全合乎规律的,因为五年计划完成的速度,在很大的程度上决定于经济方面节约的程度。显然,遵守节约制度并不是短期的运动,而是经常的经营管理的方法。所以,     

Dynamic models of the labor force behavior of married women which can be estimated using limited amounts of past information

This paper examines the extent of the inadequacy of standard cross-sectional models of US labor force behavior and considers the abilities of alternative models to capture the observed continuity in the hours of work and earnings of individuals as well as in their employment histories. Both of the alternatives to the standard cross-sectional model considered in this study incorporate limited amounts of information about past work behavior that could easily be collected as part of a national population census. Using a population of 21 to 64 year old married working women taken from a 1969 through 1978 Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the variables included in the Z vector age: 1) age of the wife; 2) education of the wife; 3) state average hourly wage in manufacturing measured in 1967 dollars; and 4) unemployment rate for the state in which the wife lives. Results show that by using information about a women's hours of work and wage rate in the previous year, it may be feasible to improve on forecasts of a woman's employment and earnings behavior. For each model a separate estimate is made for wives aged 21 through 46, and for those aged 47 through 64. The dummy and difference models perform much better than the standard model, with the dummy model having the higher pseudo-chi-square statistic. These models show that systematic errors made in determining which individuals work, what they earn per hour, or how many hours they work, should result in prediction errors of the same sort year after year in the computation of annual earnings. These findings with respect to years of work and nonwork, years of part time versus full time work, and cumulative earnings over a 10 year period, confirm and extend Heckman's findings; thus, forecasting models of the work behavior of individuals should not be estimated using pure cross-sectional data. It would be important if researchers could identify what observable factors, if any, increase the likelihood that wives will alter their work behavior from what it has been in the immediate past, even if they are not able to fully understand or explain this previous work behavior.     

Making provision for ageing populations

Low birth rates and longer life spans are increasing the proportion of elderly people in most Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. In some European countries, present birth rate trends could soon lead to a downturn in the size of the total population and in the number of working age people, exacerbating the problem of financing pensions, health care, and welfare services for the aged. This article examines the question of how social policies need to be adapted now to meet the demographic problems expected early next century. Per capita spending for the elderly is 2-4 times higher than for the young. A low birth rate will therefore not make up the increase in costs accompanying the aging of the population.