Trade, foreign firms and economic policy in Indonesian and Thai manufacturing

This paper first examines the rapid growth and changing composition of manufactured exports in Indonesia and Thailand, highlighting the rapid growth of office and computer machinery and electric machinery, somewhat slower growth of non-electric and transportation machinery, as well as the low growth of previously large exports of textiles apparel. Second, the important contributions of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) to export growth in the machinery industries, particularly in electric, office, and computing machinery, are documented. Third, the paper describes trade policies in all these industries in some detail, emphasizing how low protection was a key facilitator of rapid export growth in the MNEs that dominated the electric, office, and computing machinery industry, while high protection reduced incentives to export among MNEs in the transportation machinery industry.     

Overcompensation as a Partial Solution to Commitment and Renegotiation Problems: The Case of Ex Post Moral Hazard

In a Costly State Verification world, an agent who has private information regarding the state of the world must report what state occurred to a principal, who can verify the state at a cost. An agent then has what is called ex post moral hazard: he has an incentive to misreport the true state to extract rents from the principal. Assuming the principal cannot commit to an auditing strategy, the optimal contract is such that: (1) the agent's expected marginal utility when there is an accident (high‐ and low‐loss states) is equal to his marginal utility when there is no accident; (2) the lower loss is undercompensated, while the higher loss is overcompensated; and (3) the welfare of the agent is greater under commitment than under no‐commitment. Result 2 is contrary to the results obtained if the principal can commit to an auditing strategy (higher losses underpaid and lower losses overpaid). The reason is that by increasing the difference between the high and the low indemnity payments, the probability of fraud is reduced.     

Research society: science and technology for the ages

This paper imagines a US society that is obsessed with survival over the very long-term, not just over the next decade or two but over very long-time spans measured in the thousands and millions of years. Given that Americans tend to be achievement-oriented, it is plausible that they could become enthralled with this ultimate challenge. It is folly to argue that a fundamental change in the focus of the national psyche from consumerism to longer-term pursuits will happen anytime soon but the paper suggests that dissatisfaction with consumerism, growing environmentalism, increasingly felt limits of non-renewable resources, the increasing extinction of species, and a tiredness with global power politics as usual and its seemingly inexplicable violence and terrorism can someday lead to archetypal change in our society. In anticipation of this change, this paper presents a roadmap of how we could get from here, consumerism, to there, focused on the journey of life through time and space. The paper also outlines threats that humans must address to maintain the journey of earth-life through time and space; and presents a broad range of activities designed to meet the threats and capitalize on important opportunities. Finally, the paper explores how society would be transformed to meet the challenges and what sectors of today’s economy could be expected to contribute workers to a bourgeoning science and technology workforce and concludes with a few remarks about the future to come.     

中国成品油市场月度分析

回顾1.需求7月份,世界主要经济体跌幅趋缓,显现经济复苏迹象。中国经济更是率先走出低迷,增长提速,第二季度国内生产总值同比增长7.9%。基础设施投资起到了决定性的作用。7月份固定资产投资延续上半年的趋     

How Does Size Affect Mutual Fund Behavior?

If actively managed mutual funds suffer from diminishing returns to scale, funds should alter investment behavior as assets under management increase. Although asset growth has little effect on the behavior of the typical fund, we find that large funds and small‐cap funds diversify their portfolios in response to growth. Greater diversification, especially for small‐cap funds, is associated with better performance. Fund family growth is related to the introduction of new funds that hold different stocks from their existing siblings. Funds with many siblings diversify less rapidly as they grow, suggesting that the fund family may influence a fund's portfolio strategy.