Carryover effects of advertising on sales of durable goods

In a landmark paper, Clarke [Clarke, D.G., J. Marketing Res. 13 (November 1976): 345–357] addressed the question of how long the carryover effect of advertising on sales persists. Appropriate cautions are included in the conclusions reached by Clarke since the preponderance of studies that he reviewed involved mature frequently purchased low-priced products. His conclusion is that, for such products, the carryover effect of advertising lasts a matter of months rather than years. The current study examines durable goods and provides preliminary evidence that for some durables, advertising effects may have a duration interval that exceeds a year.     

On the relationship between migration and fertility

The relationship between migration and fertility is examined. The author proposes an alternative model to those used previously and applies it to data from the 1973 National Demographic Survey of the Philippines. The model assumes that although the fertility of migrants declines initially because of economic and psychological hardships, it rises subsequently as migrants become settled in their new environment.     

Prospects for international maritime shipping

The world’s energy supplies are dependent not only on the producer countries’ production capacities and policies but also on adequate transport facilities. In fact, a shortage of vessels able to carry coal is widely expected to be a major bottleneck for the substitution of oil by coal on a large scale. Shipowner Peter M. Nomikos holds a different view.     

Smuggling and price disparity

This paper proposes a model of smuggling consistent with the coexistence of smuggling, legal trade and price disparity, defined as a domestic price which exceeds (is less than) the return from legal export (import). These phenomena have been found to characterize Indonesian smuggling. A framework is presented in which legal trade is used to cloak smuggling activity with the implication that the greater the volume of legal trade, the less the costs of smuggling. This model is then used to explain the observation noted above and to show that smuggling may be welfare increasing vis-à-vis the non-smuggling situation, and that even if the suppression of smuggling is costless, tax revenue maximization may require a positive level of smuggling. In addition, the model is applied to coffee and rubber exports from Indonesia.     

Short-Run Output Response in the Western Canadian Cattle Industry

This paper present the results of recent empirical work on the short-run producetion flexibility of cow-calf producers in Western Canada. Several aspects of firm behaviour may be inferred from the econometric estimates, including short-run elasticities of supply and factor demand, and the total elasticity of cattle supply. The principal empirical findings are that many of the shourt-run supply and factor demand responses of firms, are elastic with respect to within-season price variability. The evidence does not support a vertical or negatively-sloped short-run supply curve for cattle, where one previously has been hypothesized in the theoretical literature.     

TESTING OLIGOPOLISTIC AND OLIGOPSONISTIC BEHAVIOUR: AN APPLICATION TO THE US MEAT-PACKING INDUSTRY

This paper extends the conjectural approach in industrial organisation to the analysis of imperfections in output and factor markets. Starting from the specification of a production function, the econometric analysis is based on the formulation and estimation of a simultaneous-equation model consisting of a production function, first-order conditions associated with factor employment, and two conjectural elasticities to parameterise the industry's oligopoly and oligopsony equilibria. As an example, we provide an application to the US meat-packing industry. Our results suggest that the industry exercises market power in both the output (meat) market and the factor (live animal) market.     

Changes needed in agricultural policy for female-headed farm families in tropical Africa

The decline in per-capita agricultural production has been reversed somewhat in tropical Africa by the structural adjustment programs which have increased producer prices, liberalized marketing and devalued currencies. But the 30% of smallholder farm households which are female-headed will not be assited much due to their special constraints of shortages of labor and credit, lack of extension visits and appropriate labor-saving technologies. For these households, the authors argue, improved extension services, credit for agricultural inputs, small ruminant animals and poultry, labor-saving devices and craft inputs will be necessary to increase their incomes and levels of living.