The Controllability of Financial Outcomes

Accounting performance measures that capture results not controlled by the person being evaluated may be dysfunctional. The aim of this paper is to provide a framework for identifying situations in which outcomes are captured by such measures as are more (less) likely to be controllable. Results of a questionnaire survey support the claim that as task uncertainty increases, individuals perceive less control over financial outcomes.     

Improving Experienced Auditors’ Detection of Deception in CEO Narratives

We experimentally study the deception detection capabilities of experienced auditors, using CEO narratives from earnings conference calls as case materials. We randomly assign narratives of fraud and nonfraud companies to auditors as well as the presence versus absence of an instruction explaining that cognitive dissonance in speech is helpful for detecting deception. We predict this instruction will weaken auditors’ learned tendency to overlook fraud cues. We find that auditors’ deception judgments are less accurate for fraud companies than for nonfraud companies, unless they receive this instruction. We also find that instructed auditors more extensively describe red flags for fraud companies and more accurately identify specific sentences in narratives that pertain to underlying frauds. These findings indicate that instructing experienced auditors to be alert for cognitive dissonance in CEO narratives can activate deception detection capabilities.     

COMMON COSTS AND CROSS-SUBSIDIES: MISESTIMATION VERSUS MISALLOCATION

Existing models of cross-subsidization have focused on either ex ante distortions to investments or misallocations of common costs as the principal sources of cross-subsidies in regulated firms. In this paper, we identify a third vehicle for such cross-subsidization that, given regulators' preferences, is not only likely but likely to be prominent; namely, the misestimation of the magnitude of common costs. Because our results incorporate regulators' preferences, they may provide the necessary building block for a positive theory of the magnitude of observed common costs that has, heretofore, been absent in the literature. ( JEL L51, L97 )     

Constructing Asset Pricing Models With Specific Factor Loadings

We demonstrate how one can build pricing formulae in which factors other than beta may be viewed as determinants of asset returns. This is important conceptually as it demonstrates how the additional factors can compensate for a market portfolio proxy that is mis‐specified, and also shows how such a pricing model can be specified ex ante. The procedure is implemented by first selecting an ‘orthogonal’ portfolio which falls on the mean‐variance efficient frontier computed from the empirical average returns, variances and covariances on the equity securities of a large sample of firms. One then determines the inefficient index portfolio which leads to a vector of betas that when multiplied by the average return on the orthogonal portfolio, and which when subtracted from the vector of average returns for the firms comprising the sample, yields an error vector that is equal to the vector of numerical values for the variables that are to form the basis of the asset pricing formula. There will then be a perfect linear relationship between the vector of average returns for the firms comprising the sample, the vector of betas based on the inefficient index portfolio and such other factors that are deemed to be important in the asset pricing process. We illustrate computational procedures using a numerical example based on the quality of information contained in published corporate financial statements.     

The Long‐Run Fisher Effect: Can It Be Tested?

In this paper, I provide a plausible explanation as to why past studies have been unable to find support for the long-run Fisher effect. My argument is that exogenous shocks to the inflation rates in industrialized economies have not produced the permanent change to inflation necessary for testing the Fisher effect. Instead of finding a nonstationary, unit-root process for inflation like previous Fisher effect studies, here each country's inflation rate is found to follow a mean-reverting, fractionally integrated, long-memory process. Applying a bivariate, maximum likelihood estimator to a multivariate, fractionally integrated model of inflation and nominal interest, I find that the estimated inflation rates in 17 developed countries are highly persistent, fractionally integrated, mean-reverting processes with order of integration parameters significantly less than one. Since a permanent change to inflation has not occurred, a test of whether a permanent change to inflation affects the nominal interest rate one-for-one will be uninformative as to the truth or fallacy of the Fisher effect hypothesis.     

Bank Loan Supply, Lender Choice, and Corporate Capital Structure

This paper explores the relevance of capital market supply frictions for corporate capital structure decisions. To identify this relationship, I study the effect on firms' financial structures of two changes in bank funding constraints: the 1961 emergence of the market for certificates of deposit, and the 1966 Credit Crunch. Following an expansion (contraction) in the availability of bank loans, leverage ratios of bank-dependent firms significantly increase (decrease) relative to firms with bond market access. Concurrent changes in the composition of financing sources lend further support to the role of credit supply and debt market segmentation in capital structure choice.     

Catastrophic Risk and Credit Markets

We provide a model of the effects of catastrophic risk on real estate financing and prices and demonstrate that insurance market imperfections can restrict the supply of credit for catastrophe-susceptible properties. Using unique micro-level data, we find that earthquake risk decreased commercial real estate bank loan provision by 22% in California properties in the 1990s, with more severe effects in African–American neighborhoods. We show that the 1994 Northridge earthquake had only a short-term disruptive effect. Our basic findings are confirmed for hurricane risk, and our model and empirical work have implications for terrorism and political perils.     

Methodological Issues in Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates of the Human Resource-Firm Performance Link

Because companies differ in factors such as management ability that may lead to both high performance work systems and enhanced firm performance, conventional estimates of the effects of human resource (HR) management practices on firm performance may be biased upward. Alternatively, if HR management practices are measured with error, estimates of their effects on firm performance may be biased downward. We find that although longitudinal estimates that avoid the first source of bias are substantially smaller than cross-sectional estimates, the former are strongly influenced by errors in measuring HR management practices. Based on independent estimates of the measurement error, we calculate a range of estimates that correct for both biases. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in our measure of high performance work systems raises the market value of the corporation by approximately $15,000 per employee.