From T-Bills to Common Stocks: Investigating the Generality of Intra-Week Return Seasonality

The authors investigate the extent to which intra-week seasonality still exists and whether its pattern is uniform across three stock indices and Treasury bonds with seven different maturities. They find that intra-week seasonality continues to be significant and that its pattern is not uniform, either between the stock indices and the Treasury bonds or even among the bonds alone. A pattern shared by stocks and bonds is that Monday returns become increasingly negative with maturity. These findings suggest that neither institutional nor general-equilibriumex planations by themselves can explain the pattern of intra-week seasonality in securities markets.     

Testing the CAPM with Time-Varying Risks and Returns

This paper draws on Engle's autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic modeling strategy to formulate a conditional CAPM with time-varying risk and expected returns. The model is estimated by generalized method of moments. A CAPM that allows mean excess returns to shift in January survives generalized method of moments specification tests for a number of omitted variables. However, a residual dividend yield component is found to remain in the excess returns of smaller firms. We find significant monthly and quarterly components in the risk premia and beta estimates.     

An investigation of the sources,moderators, and psychological symptoms of stress among audit seniors*

Abstract. One purpose of this study is to identify major sources of stress for audit seniors. Fifty-nine different job-related stressors are identified and investigated. Statistical evidence of increased dysfunctional psychological symptoms associated with increases in the presence of certain stressors is provided. In addition, four stress models that incorporate job stressors, personality types, coping behaviors, and psychological symptoms are investigated. Two mediating-effects models were found to portray suitably the relationships among these items. Résumé. Les auteurs ont entre autres pour but de déterminer les principales sources de stress chez les chefs de mission. Cinquante-neuf éléments inducteurs de stress différents liés au travail sont identifiés et analysés. L'analyse statistique démontre que les symptômes psychologiques dysfonctionnels augmentent avec la présence accrue de certains inducteurs de stress. Les auteurs analysent en outre quatre modèles de stress faisant intervenir des inducteurs de stress dans le travail, des types de personnalité, des comportements face aux difficultés et des symptômes psychologiques. Ils en viennent à la conclusion que deux modèles d'effets médiateurs illustrent de façon appropriée les relations entre ces éléments.     

Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data

This paper evaluates alternative methods for classifying individual trades as market buy or market sell orders using intraday trade and quote data. We document two potential problems with quote-based methods of trade classification: quotes may be recorded ahead of trades that triggered them, and trades inside the spread are not readily classifiable. These problems are analyzed in the context of the interaction between exchange floor agents. We then propose and test relatively simple procedures for improving trade classifications.     

Should Taxpayers Be Subsidized to Hire Third-Party Preparers? A Game-Theoretic Analysis*

Abstract. This article examines the tax-compliance game between taxpayers, a tax-collecting agency, and third-party tax-return preparers. In our model, taxpayers are uncertain about their taxable income and may hire tax practitioners to reduce tax uncertainty. We examine the viability of tax practitioners as a signaling device (taking into account the effects on the behavior of the tax-collecting agency) and investigate the desirability of encouraging (or discouraging) the use of tax practitioners via the use of alternative tax-crediting rules. Our study establishes that tax crediting enables legislators to deal better with the consequences of taxpayers' strategic reporting. We show that the effects of changes in crediting rates cannot be replicated by changes in tax rates or penalties; the government would generally like to “price discriminate” in subsidizing tax practitioners' involvement in the tax-compliance process. It is suboptimal to permit all taxpayers to take a tax credit for preparers' fees; some taxpayers should be denied such a subsidy. Further, if the government is constrained to adopt an identical credit schedule for all taxpayers, it will often find that a policy allowing no tax credit Pareto dominates any uniform crediting policy. Résumé. Les auteurs examinent le jeu auquel se livrent, en matière d'observation de la législation fiscale, les contribuables, les agences de perception de l'impôt et les tiers chargés de la préparation des déclarations de revenus. Dans le modèle retenu par les auteurs, les contribuables sont incertains de leur revenu imposable et peuvent recourir aux services de fiscalistes dans le but de réduire cette incertitude. Les auteurs se penchent sur le caractère indicatif du choix du fiscaliste (en tenant compte de l'influence qu'exerce l'agence de perception sur le comportement) et se demandent s'il convient d'encourager les contribuables à recourir aux fiscalistes ou de les en dissuader au moyen de différents mécanismes de dégrèvement fiscal. L'étude démontre que le dégrèvement fiscal permet au législateur de mieux faire face aux conséquences des stratégies de déclaration des contribuables. L'on constate que la modification des taux d'imposition ou des pénalités ne livre pas les mêmes résultats que la modification des taux de dégrèvement; l'État vise généralement la ? discrimination en fonction du prix ? en subventionnant le recours aux fiscalistes dans le processus d'observation fiscale. Il ne serait pas optimal de permettre à tous les contribuables de se prévaloir d'un crédit d'impôt pour les honoraires des auteurs de leurs déclarations; une telle subvention devrait être refusée à certains contribuables. En outre, si l'État se voit contraint d'adopter un programme de dégrèvement identique pour tous les contribuables, il constatera dans bien des cas qu'une politique ne permettant aucun dégrèvement est supérieure, au sens de Pareto, à toute politique de dégrèvement uniforme.     

Asymmetric Information and Risky Debt Maturity Choice

When capital market investors and firm insiders possess the same information about a company's prospects, its liabilities will be priced in a way that makes the firm indifferent to the composition of its financial liabilities (at least under certain, well-known circumstances). However, if firm insiders are systematically better informed than outside investors, they will choose to issue those types of securities that the market appears to overvalue most. Knowing this, rational investors will try to infer the insiders' information from the firm's financial structure. This paper evaluates the extent to which a firm's choice of risky debt maturity can signal insiders' information about firm quality. If financial market transactions are costless, a firm's financial structure cannot provide a valid signal. With positive transaction costs, however, high-quality firms can sometimes effectively signal their true quality to the market. The existence of a signalling equilibrium is shown to depend on the (exogenous) distribution of firms' quality and the magnitude of underwriting costs for corporate debt.     

The Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Supershares

In a single-period model with options on the market portfolio, linear factor pricing holds if and only if the variance of the market conditional on the factors is zero. There is no need for factors other than nonlinear functions of the market. For accurate linear pricing of all payoff patterns the factors must be rotationally equivalent to Hakansson's “supershares.” In a multiperiod model, a similar set of results holds, but with consumption replacing the market payoff. The methodology of the empirical Arbitrage Pricing Theory literature is not consistent with either the single-period model or the multiperiod model.     

PREDATORY PRICING: THE CASE OF THE RETAIL GASOLINE MARKET

Allegations of predatory pricing by large refiners have been made repeatedly by dealers' representatives, who have advocated retail divorcement as a solution. The states of Maryland and Connecticut and the District of Columbia have passed strong divorcement laws, while a host of other state legislatures have considered such laws. Using a special set of price data on refiner-operated stations, and on their competitors in Maryland, this paper tests the hypothesis that refiners have preyed on dealers. The findings, which do not support the hypothesis, deny the validity of the predatory-pricing allegations.