Risk-Neutral Parameter Shifts and Derivatives Pricing in Discrete Time

We obtain a large class of discrete‐time risk‐neutral valuation relationships, or “preference‐free” derivatives pricing models, by imposing a simple restriction on the state‐price density process. The risk‐neutral stock‐return and forward‐rate dynamics are obtained by changing only a location parameter, which can be determined independent of the preference and true location parameters. The Gaussian models of Rubinstein (1976) , Brennan (1979) , and Câmera (2003) , and the gamma model of Heston (1993) are all special cases. The model provides simple relationships between expected returns and state‐price density parameters analogous to the diffusion case.     

TRADE UNIONS AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

This paper investigates the relationship between trade unionsand financial performance using British establishment-leveldata. We estimate the average overall impact of manual unionrecognition in 1990 to be roughly half what it was in 1984.We report results suggesting that in 1990 unionized establishmentshave lower financial performance only where there are closedshop arrangements and the establishments have some product marketpower and that this effect is greater where managerial freedomto allocate tasks is limited by union work rules. This lattercombination occurs in only about one in ten of the unionizedworkplaces in our sample.     

Sticky Prices and Indeterminacy

The aim of this paper is to analyze the link between price rigidity and indeterminacy. This is done within a cash-in-advance economy that is known to exhibit indeterminacy at high degrees of relative risk aversion. My findings show that price stickiness reduces the scope of these sunspot equilibria: to be compatible with indeterminacy, sluggish price adjustment requires degrees of relative risk aversion that prove too high to square with data.     

International Accounting Standards and Accounting Quality

We examine whether application of International Accounting Standards (IAS) is associated with higher accounting quality. The application of IAS reflects combined effects of features of the financial reporting system, including standards, their interpretation, enforcement, and litigation. We find that firms applying IAS from 21 countries generally evidence less earnings management, more timely loss recognition, and more value relevance of accounting amounts than do matched sample firms applying non‐U.S. domestic standards. Differences in accounting quality between the two groups of firms in the period before the IAS firms adopt IAS do not account for the postadoption differences. Firms applying IAS generally evidence an improvement in accounting quality between the pre‐ and postadoption periods. Although we cannot be sure our findings are attributable to the change in the financial reporting system rather than to changes in firms' incentives and the economic environment, we include research design features to mitigate effects of both.     

Commercially Available Order Flow Data and Exchange Rate Movements: Caveat Emptor

Research suggests that customer order flow should help predict exchange rates. We make two contributions. First, we provide a review of the recent literature on order flow and exchange rate movements. Second, we critically evaluate the practical value of customer order flow data that are commercially available to the wider market, as well as the forecasting properties of inter-dealer order flow. In line with microstructure theory, we find little evidence that the latter can forecast exchange rates, but our results also cast considerable doubt on the practical value to market practitioners of commercially available customer order flow data.     

CFO Narcissism and Financial Reporting Quality

We investigate the effect of CFO narcissism, as measured by signature size, on financial reporting quality. Experimentally, we validate that narcissism predicts misreporting behavior, and that signature size predicts misreporting through its association with narcissism. Empirically, we examine notarized CFO signatures and find CFO narcissism is associated with more earnings management, less timely loss recognition, weaker internal control quality, and a higher probability of restatements. The results are consistent for within‐firm comparisons focusing on CFO changes and are robust to controlling for CFO overconfidence and CEO narcissism. The results highlight the importance of CFO characteristics in the domain of financial reporting decisions.     

Sensation Seeking, Overconfidence, and Trading Activity

This study analyzes the role that two psychological attributes—sensation seeking and overconfidence—play in the tendency of investors to trade stocks. Equity trading data from Finland are combined with data from investor tax filings, driving records, and mandatory psychological profiles. We use these data, obtained from a large population, to construct measures of overconfidence and sensation seeking tendencies. Controlling for a host of variables, including wealth, income, age, number of stocks owned, marital status, and occupation, we find that overconfident investors and those investors most prone to sensation seeking trade more frequently.     

Using Coupon Incentives in Recycling Aluminum: A Market Approach to Energy Conservation Policy

A field experiment was conducted on a stratified sample of 354 recyclers and nonrecyclers to test the effects of coupon incentives on consumers' intentions and behavior in recycling aluminum. Results indicate that modest coupon incentives positively influenced recyclers' behavior, but did not influence nonrecyclers. Over the range of incentives tested, evidence suggests that increased recycling frequency is directly related to the coupon value. Implications for incorporating coupon promotional programs into the development of energy conservation policy, and areas for future research are discussed.     

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF FISCAL PRUDENCE IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

This paper uses a new panel dataset to perform a statistical analysis of political regimes and financial rectitude over the long run. Old Regime polities in Europe typically suffered from fiscal fragmentation and absolutist rule. By the start of World War I, however, many such countries had centralized institutions and limited government. Panel regressions indicate that political transformations toward centralized and limited regimes led to significant improvements in fiscal prudence. Dynamic estimations and structural breaks tests reinforce these findings. The results suggest that good financial housekeeping is one mechanism through which political reforms reduce sovereign credit risk.     

Brokers versus Retail Investors: Conflicting Interests and Dominated Products

I study how brokers distort household investment decisions. Using a novel convertible bond data set, I find that consumers often purchase dominated bonds—cheap and expensive otherwise‐identical bonds coexist in the market. Brokers are incentivized to sell the dominated bonds, typically earning two times greater fees for selling them. I develop and estimate a broker‐intermediated search model that rationalizes this behavior. The estimates indicate that costly search is a key friction in financial markets, but the effects of search costs are compounded when brokers are incentivized to direct the search of consumers toward high‐fee inferior products.