Understanding the Impact of Health Reform on the States: Expansion of Coverage through Medicaid and Exchanges

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) expands Medicaid coverage and creates subsidized state health insurance exchanges. The implementation of the ACA will impact the states and consequently the state residents differently. We discuss the factors contributing to the variation in uninsured rates and the Medicaid population, and we predict that these underlying economic, demographic factors and state policies will continue to affect health insurance coverage. Using data from the March 2010 Current Population Survey (CPS), we examine health care coverage at the state level prior to the ACA and forecast the percentage of state residents eligible for expanded Medicaid and the exchanges. Our results suggest the percentage of state population eligible for expanded Medicaid and subsidized exchanges will vary considerably, especially for adults. Further, we show that current state Medicaid eligibility rules, the percentage of employers offering health insurance and poverty rates will continue to shape the variation in projected health insurance coverage across the states. Finally, we discuss the potential impact of the Supreme Court decision that allowed states to opt‐out of Medicaid expansion.     

Absolute and Relative Restriction and Consumer Behavior: Implications for Understanding Global Consumption

Our premise is that researchers have much to gain from an understanding of the global marketplace experiences of impoverished consumers. We argue that influences of absolute and relative restriction, across peoples and societies, are particularly critical. Therefore, this research makes progress by evaluating consumer data from diverse cultures and nations using hierarchical linear models, revealing ways restriction through poverty and consumption impacts well‐being. We find that understanding both absolute and relative poverty is necessary for a more complete picture. Specifically, interactions show that absolute restriction moderates relationships between relative restriction and consumption and well‐being by muting or exacerbating the effects.     

Globalization and Uncertainty: Earnings Volatility in Sweden, 1985–2003

Earnings volatility has been linked to economic integration only through contradictory conjectures. We assess globalization’s role by examining volatility trends in manufacturing, private services, and public services. If trade increases uncertainty, volatility trends should differ markedly across industries since manufacturing, in contrast to especially public services, is exposed to international competition. We analyze earnings trajectories in Sweden 1985–2003, a country and period evincing accelerating trade, finding no indications of greater volatility increases in manufacturing.     

Funds Statements and the Two-Entity Test: A Reponse

Robb (1985) criticizes the two-entity test proposed by McKinnon et al. (1983) as confusing and contradictory. This reply demonstrates that his criticisms also are confusing and contradictory.     

The Method of Payment in Corporate Acquisitions,Investment Opportunities,and Management Ownership

This article examines the motives underlying the payment method in corporate acquisitions. The findings support the notion that the higher the acquirer's growth opportunities, the more likely the acquirer is to use stock to finance an acquisition. Acquirer managerial ownership is not related to the probability of stock financing over small and large ranges of ownership, but is negatively related over a middle range. In addition, the likelihood of stock financing increases with higher pre-acquisition market and acquiring firm stock returns. It decreases with an acquirer's higher cash availability, higher institutional shareholdings and blockholdings, and in tender offers.     

Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?

Recent empirical studies suggest that nominal interest rates and expected inflation do not move together one-for-one in the long run, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This article shows that these results can be deceptive when the process followed by inflation shifts infrequently. We characterize the shifts in inflation by a Markov switching model. Based upon this model's forecasts, we reexamine the long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation. Interestingly, we are unable to reject the hypothesis that in the long run nominal interest rates reflect expected inflation one-for-one.     

The Walk‐down to Beatable Analyst Forecasts: The Role of Equity Issuance and Insider Trading Incentives*

It has been alleged that firms and analysts engage in an "earnings‐guidance game" where analysts first issue optimistic earnings forecasts and then "walk down" their estimates to a level that firms can beat at the official earnings announcement. We examine whether the walk‐down to beatable targets is associated with managerial incentives to sell stock after earnings announcements on the firm's behalf (through new equity issuance) or from their personal accounts (through option exercises and stock sales). Consistent with these hypotheses, we find that the walk‐down to beatable targets is most pronounced when firms or insiders are net sellers of stock after an earnings announcement. These findings provide new insights on the impact of capital‐market incentives on communications between managers and analysts.