Testing for non-linear dependence in inter-war exchange rates

Testing for Non-Linear Dependence in Inter-War Exchange Rates. — This paper tests weekly inter-war floating exchange rate data for the pound-dollar, pound-franc and pound-reichsmark for non-linearity. Initial tests reveal strong evidence of generic non-linearity in these series and indicate neglected non-linear structure in the residuals of linear representations. Attempts to model this structure using GARCH residual processes have only been partially successful. Thus, two parametric models of such non-linearity were estimated. Comparing the forecasts from these models shows the mean square forecast errors of linear-GARCH and bilinear models to be lower than those from linear forecasts for all series, and that SETAR model forecasts outperform all other models for the pound-dollar.     

A case against the consolidation of foreign subsidiaries’ and a United States parent’s financial statements

Generally accepted accounting principles in the United States usually require that companies which own more than 50% of the voting stock of foreign corporations prepare consolidated financial statements. The foreign financial statements must be recast into US GAAP and the foreign currency financial statements must be translated into US dollars. Alternative methods of translating foreign currency have major impacts on consolidated financial statements and on the behavior of management. Further, foreign subsidiary financial statements which are recast into US GAAP are less useful than the originals, and US users cannot analyze them without reference to the foreign environment. The interests of financial statement users are better served by alternative presentations of foreign currency denominated accounts rather than by consolidation.     

An analysis of some aspects of regulatory risk and the required rate of return for public utilities

This paper uses a modification of the continuous time asset pricing model of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross to analyze the effect of regulatory risk on the cost of capital. Analysis shows that random errors in setting the allowed rate of return can either increase or decrease the cost of capital depending on other regulatory parameters. However, the analysis suggests that regulatory risk is not material.     

Technology Strategies For Economic Development In A Fast Changing Global Economy

East Asian development experience provides the basis for understanding which are the essential elements of effective technology strategy and policy, those that are required for the efficacious development of countries that have not yet embarked on a path of sustained modernization. Globalization has had a profound impact on development, enabling countries that could exploit its propelling forces to pursue a potent strategy of export-led economic and technological development. The policies needed to sustain this strategy are those required to foster institutions that permit effective commerce among economic agents, those necessary to generate the rapid accumulation of human and physical capital, and those essential to ensure that resources are allocated in accord with the economy's dynamic comparative advantage. Of crucial importance among the latter are effectively implemented policies of selective intervention designed to develop infant industries and to foster their fast-paced achievement of international competitiveness through rapid attainment of the requisite technological capabilities.     

Einzelbesprechungen

Ohne ZusammenfassungÜbersetzt von Gerhard Tintner, WienÜbersetzt von Ragnar Nurkse, z. Zt. Wienaus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Dr. Hans Fried, WienÜbersetzt von Paul Brüll, Wien.Aus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Dr. Hans Fried.     

Efficiency in coalition games with externalities

A natural extension of superadditivity is not sufficient to imply that the grand coalition is efficient when externalities are present. We provide a condition, analogous to convexity, that is sufficient for the grand coalition to be efficient and show that this also implies that the (appropriately defined) core is nonempty. Moreover, we propose a mechanism which implements the most efficient partition for all coalition formation games and characterizes the resulting payoff division.     

Mean-Variance Preferences and Investor Behaviour

We study the comparative statics implications of mean-variance preferences for optimal portfolios. Specifically, we show that all risk-averse mean-variance investors raise their investment in a risky asset in response to a change in that asset's return distribution if and only if the change lowers both the mean and standard deviation of the return by the same percentage. Besides being of interest in its own right, our results allow us to compare some comparative statics implications and the expected utility and mean-variance models systematically.