Which News Moves the Euro Area Bond Market?

Abstract. This paper explores a long dataset (1999–2005) of intraday prices on German long-term bond futures and examines market responses to major macroeconomic announcements and ECB monetary policy releases. German bond markets tend to react more strongly to the surprise component in US macro releases compared with aggregated and national euro area and UK releases, and the strength of those reactions to US releases has increased over the period considered. We also document that the numbers of German unemployed workers consistently have been known to investors before official releases.     

What is at Stake in the Doha Round?

In this study the key elements of the WTO Doha Round are simulated and the main implications for international trade and national income are analysed. Based on negotiation information, three scenarios are designed. All scenarios encompass goods, services and agricultural liberalisation as well as trade facilitation. For goods liberalisation, a so‐called Swiss formula is used to cut bound tariff rates. Agricultural tariffs are cut according to a tiered linear formula. Attention has been given to the modelling of trade facilitation. Indirect as well as direct trade transaction costs are modelled. For simulation of the services liberalisation quantitative estimates of indirect trade barriers are used. The simulation results show that all regions in the aggregation gain in the simulated Doha scenarios, with a particularly strong result for developing countries. A conservative estimate is that global income increases with 0.2–0.7 per cent of initial GDP, depending on the level of liberalisation. Trade facilitation contributes the most to these results, with increased market access for non‐agricultural goods coming in second place. Overall, simulations indicate the importance of countries’ own liberalisation for their national income gains, and the importance of a broad‐based round.     

How to design and use the clean development mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol? A developing country perspective

Under the Kyoto Protocol, industrialized countries committed to emission reductions may fullfil part of their obligations by implementing emission reduction projects in developing countries. In doing so, they make use of the so-called Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Two important issues surround the implementation of the CDM. First, if the cheapest abatement measures are implemented for CDM projects, developing countries may be left with only more expensive measures when they have to meet their own commitments in the future (the so-called low-hanging fruits (LHF) issue). Second, a choice must be made on the type of baseline against which emission reductions are measured: an absolute baseline or a relative (to output) one (the baseline issue). The purpose of this paper is to study the interactions between these two issues from the point of view of the developing country. Two major results are obtained. First, when possible future commitments for developing countries and irreversibility of abatement measures are taken into account, we show that the industry where CDM projects are implemented enjoys larger profits under an absolute baseline than under a relative one. Second, concerning the LHF problem, the financial compensation required by the developing country for implementing ‘too many’ CDM projects is larger under the relative baseline.     

Cumulative culture and explosive demographic transitions

A demographic transition is a change in the pattern of growth of a population. Human history records several kinds of such transitions, e.g., from stability to growth or between different kinds of growth. Culture is often implied as the main fuel of demographic transitions, but theorizing is so far limited to verbal arguments. Here we study two simple formal models in which population size and the amount of culture in a population influence each other’s dynamics. The first model has two regimes: an equilibrium regime in which both population size and amount of culture reach stable values, and an explosive regime in which both variables increase exponentially without bound. A transition between these regimes is caused by changes in parameters that describe the accuracy of cultural transmission and the interaction between demography and culture. The second model suggests that a transition from extensive to intensive accumulation of culture may derive from a qualitative change in how individuals cooperate to create culture.     

Sunk costs and fairness in incomplete information bargaining

We study a bilateral trading relationship in which one agent, the seller, can make a nonrecoverable investment in order to generate potential gains from trade. Afterwards, the seller makes a price offer that the buyer can either accept or reject. If agents are fairminded, sellers who are known by the buyer to have high investment costs are predicted to charge higher prices. If the investment cost is private information, low-cost sellers should price more aggressively and high-cost sellers less aggressively than under complete information, giving rise to disagreement and/or underinvestment. Our experiment support these predictions.     

GATT and the new economic order

The developing countries are calling for a “New Economic Order” because they feel that the trading system discriminates against them. Whether GATT will emerge from the present negotiations better adapted to the needs of the Third World remains to be seen.     

Optimal Policy with Tradable and Bankable Pollution Permits: Taking the Market Microstructure into Account

This paper analyzes how the way emission permits are traded—their market microstructure—affects the optimal policy to be adopted by the environmental agency. The microstructure used is one of a quote driven market type, which characterizes many financial markets. Market makers act as intermediaries for trading the permits by setting an ask price and a bid price. The possibility of bank permits is also introduced in our dynamic two‐period model. We consider two models whether the market makers are perfectly informed about the technology of the producers or not. When the market makers have complete information, the equilibrium price of permits is the same as if the market is walrasian. When they are imperfectly informed, they may set a positive spread between bid and ask permit prices, which creates some inefficiency as the marginal abatement costs of polluters do not equalize. By allowing more flexibility in the use of the permits, banking may reduce the spread. Moreover, it may introduce price rigidities due to intertemporal arbitrage. In this framework, the circumstances under which banking should be allowed or not depend crucially on the evolution of the marginal willingness to pay for the environment.     

Natural Resources,Institutional Quality,and Economic Growth in China

The resource curse has been mainly studied using cross-country samples. In this paper we analyze a cross-province sample from one country: China. We focus on the interplay between resource abundance, institutional quality, and economic growth, using two different measures of resource abundance (a stock: resource reserves; and a flow: resource revenues), and employing various econometric approaches including varying coefficient models. We find that resource abundance has a positive effect on economic growth at the provincial level in China between 1990 and 2008, an effect that depends nonlinearly on institutional quality (1995 confidence in courts). The ‘West China Development Drive’ policy, initiated in 2000, caused substantial changes, which we investigate through a comparative panel-data analysis.     

Entrepreneurship,innovation, and human flourishing

This essay uses Edmund Phelps’ new book Mass Flourishing: How Grassroots Innovation Created Jobs, Challenge, and Change (Phelps 2013) as inspiration to discuss innovation and entrepreneurship. The book is laudable for its discussion of what constitutes a “good life”. Phelps argues that true life satisfaction cannot be achieved through a purposeless quest for wealth and material consumption, but rather through adventure, entrepreneurship, and creative endeavors. Weaknesses of the book include an overly glossy characterization of the period before World War II, a niggardly evaluation of European innovation, and the lack of convincing empirical evidence for the claim that the rate of innovation has slowed. These flaws are regrettable given the importance of the book’s main message: innovation and creative entrepreneurship are not merely the keys to economic growth, but to life satisfaction as well. This essay discusses topics in entrepreneurship research linked to the book, including the link between innovation and entrepreneurship, the role of institutions for entrepreneurship, and the tendency of national accounts to under-record the social value of innovation and entrepreneurship. If the measures used do not capture the full social value of innovation, we are likely to underestimate the genuine rate of innovation. Government policy may also be misguided. Finally, the challenge to entrepreneurial capitalism posed by the postmodernist research paradigm is discussed.