The Success of Econometrics

Econometric theory has achieved much. Still, there is a feeling in the profession that we are not providing the applied economist with the tools that he needs. In this paper I attempt to highlight the things that have occurred to me as being wrong or strange. The link between the items I discuss is the necessity of a focus. I discuss what an econometrician actually does, the relationship between econometrics and physics and econometrics and mathematical statistics, the gap between theory and practice, top-down and bottom-up methodology, weak links, aggregation and hierarchy, and how to take account of other studies. I conclude with an example from the theory of estimation under model uncertainty.     

The happy versus unhappy service worker in the service encounter:Assessing the impact on customer satisfaction

This paper assesses the impact of the service worker's display of emotions (i.e., one aspect of functional service quality) on customer satisfaction under the conditions of different levels of technical service quality by means of an experimental approach (N=600), in which display of emotions (unhappiness vs. happiness) and technical service quality (poor vs. good) were manipulated. The results indicate that the impact of the service worker's emotional display behavior on customer satisfaction is contingent on the level of technical service quality, in the sense that customer satisfaction is affected only when technical service quality is good rather than poor. Encouraging a positive display (e.g., by a smile policy), which many service firms do, is thus not a panacea for improved customer satisfaction. The moderating effect is explained in terms of service encounter congruency, which influences the mediated process by which emotional displays by service workers come to affect customer satisfaction.     

Quant GANs: deep generation of financial time series

Modeling financial time series by stochastic processes is a challenging task and a central area of research in financial mathematics. As an alternative, we introduce Quant GANs, a data-driven model which is inspired by the recent success of generative adversarial networks (GANs). Quant GANs consist of a generator and discriminator function, which utilize temporal convolutional networks (TCNs) and thereby achieve to capture long-range dependencies such as the presence of volatility clusters. The generator function is explicitly constructed such that the induced stochastic process allows a transition to its risk-neutral distribution. Our numerical results highlight that distributional properties for small and large lags are in an excellent agreement and dependence properties such as volatility clusters, leverage effects, and serial autocorrelations can be generated by the generator function of Quant GANs, demonstrably in high fidelity.     

A welfare comparison of ad valorem and unit tax regimes

This paper strives to merge two strands of the literature. The first group of papers compares ad valorem and unit taxes in a tax competition framework in terms of welfare. The second group of papers regards capital income taxes as a conjunction of taxes on pure profits and taxes on capital income. We find that, given decreasing returns to scale, there always exists a level of the share of deductible capital costs strictly smaller than one, such that for all values larger than this threshold, an ad valorem tax regime unambiguously Pareto-dominates a unit tax regime.     

Can the label ‘member’ in a loyalty program context boost customer satisfaction?

ABSTRACT

This study examines if labeling customers as ‘member’ versus ‘non-member’ in the context of a firm’s loyalty program can influence the customers’ evaluations of the firm. It was assumed that firms’ membership-related labels, which typically are euphemisms in relation to the mere discounts offered by many loyalty programs, can (a) prime customers so that positively charged content in a general member category is activated, and that (b) this content can have a positive impact on evaluations of firms with loyalty programs. An experiment showed that evoking customers’ membership status resulted in a higher level of sense of belonging, and higher customer satisfaction, for members than for non-members. Sense of belonging mediated the impact of evoking membership status on customer satisfaction. A second study confirmed that the content of customers’ general member construct is indeed associated with sense of belonging and satisfaction.     

Innovation support for new technology-based firms: the Swedish Teknopol approach

Small and medium sized firms in general and new technology-based firms in particular, serve as promoters of future economical growth. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to understand and satisfy their needs for innovation support services in regard to both the type of service and quality of delivery (e.g. confidentiality, speed).¹ Drawing upon a database of 259 new technology-based firms (NTBF) and 106 researchers, we have identified four needs bundles: marketing, technology, financing and soft service support. We have evaluated the effectiveness of the Swedish Teknopol scheme to meet these needs based upon 35 in-depth interviews with NTBFs. The conclusions of the evaluation are presented both for policy makers and NTBF managers.     

Short brand stories on packaging: An examination of consumer responses

The persuasiveness of stories and their influence on consumers have been acknowledged in marketing, particularly within the advertising field. In marketing practice, brand stories are increasingly also appearing on product packages. However, packages differ from ads in significant ways as communication channels; for example, the space for messages on a package is limited by the size of the package. This study reports findings from two experiments comparing consumer responses to fast‐moving consumer good (FMCG) packages with and without short brand stories. The findings show that even a short brand story included on FMCG packaging has a positive impact on consumers’ affective, attitudinal, product value, and behavioral intention responses to the brand.     

The characteristics of family firms: exploiting information on ownership,kinship, and governance using total population data

Family firms are often considered characteristically different from non-family firms. However, our understanding of family firms suffers from an inability to identify them in total population data; information is rarely available regarding owners, their kinship, and their involvement in firm governance. We present a method for identifying domiciled family firms using register data; this method offers greater accuracy than previous methods. We apply this method to Swedish data concerning firm ownership, governance, and kinship from 2004 to 2010. We find that the family firm is a significant organizational form, contributing over one third of all employment and gross domestic product (GDP). Family firms are common in most industries and range in size. Furthermore, we find that, compared to private non-family firms, family firms have fewer total assets, employment, and sales and carry higher solidity, although family firms are more profitable. These differences diminish with firm size. We conclude that the term “family firm” includes a large variety of firms, and we call for increased attention to their heterogeneity.     

Financial and Institutional Reforms for an Entrepreneurial Society

In this paper, we introduce the special issue on Financial and Institutional Reforms for an Entrepreneurial Society in Europe. There are many reasons for Europe to want to make the transition to a more Entrepreneurial Society. And for decades now, policy makers are trying to bring that transition about with variations on the “educate, deregulate and finance” approach to entrepreneurship. We argue that more fundamental reforms are required to improve the entrepreneurial ecosystem and bring about this transition. We then discuss the 12 contributions that pertain to five different facets of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. The first two papers address the most fundamental institutional foundations of the ecosystem. The next three papers discuss the (lack of) access to knowledge and incentives to start innovative entrepreneurial ventures. That is followed by three papers that focus on the institutions that (fail to) channel financial resources to such ventures and two papers that analyze the relevance of labor market institutions. The special issue concludes with two papers investigating how the interplay of institutions and productive entrepreneurship results in economic growth.