Human capital accumulation in an open labour market: Ireland in the 1990s

Large-scale investment in education in Ireland began in 1967 and has led to a dramatic increase in the relative supply of skilled labour over the past four decades. Furthermore the supply of labour in Ireland is traditionally highly elastic through migration, which in the 1990s was predominantly high-skilled. This combination of rising education levels and an open labour market meant that employment and incomes rose rapidly in the 1990s, while Ireland still maintained a strong competitive position in terms of relative labour costs.In this paper we develop a new macro-economic framework to formally analyse these mechanisms. We estimate a small structural model of the Irish labour market, separately identifying high-skilled and low-skilled labour. We find that this model captures key characteristics of the Irish labour market in the 1990s.     

Fed funds futures and the news

The objective of this paper is to determine whether the observed variation in the response of market interest rates over the 1990s to the news about employment is a result, at least in part, of changes in expectations for monetary policy. Fed funds futures rates, which embody predictions for the expected monthly average of the daily effective funds rate, are used to capture market participants' expectations for monetary policy in the face of employment surprises. It is found that unanticipated employment announcements have a positive and statistically significant impact on one- and three-month-ahead fed funds futures rates and the size of the impact declines over the 1990s, thereby coinciding with a noticeable decline in the frequency of adjustment in the fed funds target rate.     

A new era for hospital liability

Hospitals are no longer merely facilities with equipment where autonomous physicians practice; they owe a direct duty of reasonable care to patients. This dramatic transition for hospitals will ensure a sea of change in the character of hospital medical practice and management.     

Correlation dynamics in European equity markets

We examine correlation dynamics using daily data from 1993 to 2002 on the five largest Euro-zone stock market indices. We also study, for comparison, the correlations of a sample of individual stocks. We employ both unconditional and conditional estimation methodologies, including estimation of the conditional correlations using the symmetric and asymmetric DCC-MVGARCH model, extended with the inclusion of a deterministic time trend. We confirm the presence of a structural break in market index correlations reported by previous researchers and, using an innovative likelihood-based search, we find that the it occurred at the beginning the process of monetary integration in the Euro-zone. We find mixed evidence of asymmetric correlation reactions to news of the type modelled by conventional asymmetric DCC-MVGARCH specifications.     

Have European Stocks become More Volatile? An Empirical Investigation of Idiosyncratic and Market Risk in the Euro Area

We examine the dynamics of idiosyncratic risk, market risk and return correlations in European equity markets using weekly observations from 3515 stocks listed in the 12 euro area stock markets over the period 1974–2004. Similarly to Campbell et al. (2001) , we find a rise in idiosyncratic volatility, implying that it now takes more stocks to diversify away idiosyncratic risk. Contrary to the US, however, market risk is trended upwards in Europe and correlations are not trended downwards. Both the volatility and correlation measures are pro‐cyclical, and they rise during times of low market returns. Market and average idiosyncratic volatility jointly predict market wide returns, and the latter impact upon both market and idiosyncratic volatility. This has asset pricing and risk management implications.