Social Security,Unemployment, and Growth

The paper develops an overlapping generations model that highlights interactions between social security, unemployment and growth. The social security system has two components: old age pensions and unemployment insurance. Pensions have a direct effect on economic growth. Both pensions and unemployment benefits influence equilibrium unemployment caused by wage bargaining. Since unemployment deteriorates growth, both types of social security have an indirect negative effect on growth.JEL Code: E24, H55, J51     

Economic Growth and Tax-Competing Leviathans

Is tax competition good for economic growth? The paper addresses this question by means of a simple model of economic growth in which a wasteful Leviathan state sets taxes and provides a productive input. Wasteful behaviour is restricted by the voter, who reduces political support if her income is reduced. The intensity of tax competition is modelled via variation of a parameter measuring the mobility of the tax base. It is shown that the effects of increased mobility of the tax base on economic growth are ambiguous and that the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, which in this model equals the rate of intratemporal substitution between the government’s own consumption and its political support, is a decisive variable in this context.     

Dynamic Effects of Extending the 2001 and 2003 Income Tax Cuts

This paper focuses on the impact of permanently extending most of the provisions in EGTRRA and JGTRRA, coupled with potential legislative changes to the AMT, on the federal deficit, the distribution of after-tax income, and economic growth. The paper shows that including moderate behavioral responses offsets 16 percent of the static revenue loss estimate from 2005 to 2014. In addition, including behavioral responses implies that the percentage change in after-tax income from permanently extending the 2001 and 2003 income tax cuts would be largest for taxpayers with incomes ranging from $20,000 to $40,000. Finally, the simulation results suggest that extending the 2001 and 2003 income tax cuts and reducing the growth rate of government spending (excluding Social Security and Medicare), assuming that government expenditures are cut to avoid dramatic increases in government consumption relative to GDP in comparison to historical norms, would increase investment, employment, and output. However, postponing the implementation of tight spending controls would more than offset the positive benefits of lower tax rates on the size of the economy and leave future generations with fewer resources for private consumption and production.JEL Code: E62, H20, H30, H60The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect those of the Baker Institute for Public Policy or any other organization. This paper was partially written while the author was employed by the Joint Committee on Taxation.     

Is There a Connection Between the Tax Administration and the Political Power?

This paper offers empirical evidence from Spain of a connection between the tax administration and the political power at the regional level. Firstly, the system of unconditional grants from the central layer of government provokes an “income effect” which disincentivises the efforts of the regional tax administration. Secondly, these efforts tend to be lower in those electoral districts where vote turnout is high, the margin to lose a parliamentary seat is narrow and their parliamentary representation is high, although the importance of these disincentives decreases according to the parliamentary strength of the incumbent. Finally, leftist governments, through the tax administration, tend to exert a greater effort in ensuring tax compliance.     

Tax Principles,Product Differentiation and the Nature of Competition

We analyze the choice between the origin and destination principles of taxation when there is product differentiation and Bertrand competition. If taxes are redistributed to consumers and demand is linear the origin principle dominates the destination principle whatever the degree of product differentiation and extent of economic integration. With nonlinear demand the origin principle dominates if there is sufficient economic integration. When the social value assigned to tax revenue is higher than the private value, the destination principle dominates for intermediate values of product differentiation and economic integration. The same results are also shown to hold with Cournot competition. JEL Code: F12, H20     

Valuing the Arsenic Contamination of Groundwater in Bangladesh

The use of groundwater in Bangladesh has in the past been promoted as a means of avoiding waterborne diseases associated with the consumption of untreated surface water. Unfortunately, the recent discovery of high levels of naturally occurring arsenic in groundwater in Bangladesh used for drinking purposes has led one international agency to describe the situation as a major public health emergency. Arsenic ingestion is associated with an elevated risk of various cancers. Epidemiological dose–response functions combined with survey estimates of arsenic concentrations in groundwater, and the number of households in Bangladesh relying on groundwater for drinking are used to derive an estimate of annual mortality and morbidity cases attributable to arsenic contamination. The estimated health impacts include 6500 fatal cancers and 2000 non-fatal cancers. Aggregate willingness to pay to avoid these health impacts is estimated to be $2.7 billion annually using purchasing power parity exchange rates. The methodology and results presented in this paper may have application to other countries.     

Individual Transferable Quota Markets under Illegal Fishing

The use of individual transferable quotas in fisheries has been considered an opportunity to achieve a given total allowable catch with a maximum social benefit. One of the assumptions used in obtaining that result is that the system is in perfect compliance. The presence of violations and the need for enforcement of tradable property rights systems in fisheries has not received much attention in the literature. The incidents of non-compliance, however, may affect the performance of transferable property rights-based fisheries in unexplored ways. In this paper, we adapt previous literature on enforcing emissions trading programs to analyze a positive model of fisherman behavior that operates under a perfectly competitive individual transferable quota system, while recognizing the opportunities for violations of quota holdings, given incomplete enforcement. Considering a poorly enforced, individual transferable quota system we are able to obtain a number of implications for the current and future equilibrium of the quota market, the time paths of the fishery, and the proper design of a policy rule on total allowable catch (TAC).     

What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?

This study aims at investigating the factors associated with the start of 24 inflation episodes in 15 emerging market economies (EMEs) between 1980 and 2001. The paper employs pooled probit analysis to estimate the contribution of the key factors to inflation starts. The empirical results suggest that increases in the output gap, agricultural shocks, and expansionary fiscal policy raise the probability of inflation starts in EMEs. The findings also indicate that a more democratic environment and an increase in capital flows relative to GDP reduce the probability of inflation starts. JEL no. E31, E58     

Growth Effects of Economic Integration: Evidence from the EU Member States

After compiling an index of economic integration that accounts for global (GATT) as well as regional (European) integration of the EU member states we test for permanent and temporary growth effects in a growth accounting framework, using a panel of fifteen EU member states over the period 1950–2000. While the hypothesis of permanent growth effects is rejected, the results—though not completely robust to controlling for time-specific effects—suggest sizeable level effects: GDP per capita of the EU would be approximately one-fifth lower today if no integration had taken place since 1950. JEL no. C33, F15, F43, O52     

Location Choice and Employment Decisions: A Comparison of German and Swedish Multinationals

Using data on German and Swedish multinational enterprises (MNEs), this paper analyzes determinants of location choice and the degree of substitutability of labor across locations. Countries with highly skilled labor strongly attract German but not necessarily Swedish MNEs. In MNEs from either country, affiliate employment tends to substitute for employment at the parent firm. At the margin, substitutability is the strongest with respect to affiliate employment in Western Europe. A one percent larger wage gap between Germany and locations in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is associated with 760 fewer jobs at German parents and 4,620 more jobs at affiliates in CEE. A one percent larger wage gap between Sweden and CEE is associated with 140 fewer jobs at Swedish parents and 260 more jobs at affiliates in CEE. JEL no. F21, F23, J21, J23