Competing to Outsource in the South

This paper analyzes foreign direct investment (FDI) competition in a three‐country framework: two Northern countries and one Southern country. We have in mind the competition of Airbus and Boeing in a developing country. The host‐country government endogenizes tariffs, while Airbus and Boeing choose domestic output and FDI. Wages and employment in the home countries are negotiated. We find that in the unique equilibrium, both Airbus and Boeing compete to undertake FDI in the developing country. This arises because the host country can play off the multinationals, which in turn stems from three factors: (a) oligopolistic rivalry; (b) quid pro quo FDI; (c) strategic outsourcing—FDI drives down the union wages at home if the host‐country wage is sufficiently low. However, if the host‐country wage is sufficiently high, the union wage increases under FDI. In such cases, FDI competition benefits the multinationals, the labor unions, as well as the host country.     

Destabilization effect of international trade in a perfect foresight dynamic general equilibrium model

In the present paper, we consider a two-country, two-good, two-factor general equilibrium model with CIES nonlinear preferences, asymmetric technologies across countries and decreasing returns to scale. It is shown that aggregate instability and endogenous fluctuations may occur due to international trade. In particular, we prove that the integration into a common market on which countries trade the produced good and the capital input may lead to period-two cycles even when the closed-economy equilibrium is saddle-point stable in both countries.     

POPULATION AGING AND CONSUMPTION INEQUALITY IN JAPAN

This paper analyses how consumption inequality within a fixed cohort grows with age using Japanese household microdata. Following the method developed by Deaton and Paxson (1994), we obtain the following results. First, consumption inequality starts to increase at the age of 40. Second, younger generations face a more unequal distribution from the beginning of their life-cycle. Third, half of the rapid increase in the economy-wide consumption inequality during the 1980s was caused by population aging, while one-third was due to the increasing cohort effect. The paper compares the above results with those of Deaton and Paxson.     

The effects of the PDCA cycle and OJT on workplace learning

In the present article, we examined the effects of the plan-do-check-act (PDCA) cycle and on-the-job-training (OJT) on workplace learning. We defined workplace learning based on the concept of an organizational learning cycle. Using survey data from a Japanese fire and marine insurance company, we found that PDCA, OJT (empowerment), and reflective communication had positive effects on workplace learning. These results suggest that quality management, empowerment and reflective practice may help to significantly improve workplace learning. We also discuss theoretical and managerial implications of this study.     

The role of human capital on the performance of manufacturing firms in Bangladesh

The efficiency determinants of manufacturing firms in developing countries have received increasing attention over the past few decades. This study examines the role of top managers' human capital and other exogenous determinants of the efficiency of manufacturing firms in Bangladesh by using heteroscedastic single‐step stochastic frontier analysis. We find that general human capital represented by educational qualification and specific human capital formed by work specific experience show different ways of impact on firm performance. Specifically, education has both a direct impact on firm outputs and an indirect impact as an efficiency determinant, whereas experience affects only technical efficiency.     

Jumps in foreign exchange rates and stochastic unwinding of carry trades

Tails in the distribution of JPY/USD exchange rate returns are well approximated by an exponentially dampened power-law. Distribution parameter estimates indicate that yen appreciation jumps belong to a Levy process with unbounded variation, suggesting that same mechanism may be responsible for fluctuations in normal times as well as rare crashes. In contrast, yen depreciation jumps have a well defined second moment suggesting a Gaussian regime. In addition, extreme episodes of yen appreciation are larger and more persistent than episodes of yen depreciation. The asymmetry is magnified and power-law tails are more elongated during times of higher interest rate differential between U.S. and Japan and higher level of VIX indicating that carry trade may be the driver. We propose a model of strategic carry trader behavior that in equilibrium generates exponentially dampened power-law distribution of jumps in foreign exchange along with “up by the stairs down by the elevator” dynamics arising from the assymetries between negative and positive jumps.     

A Two‐Country Game of Competition Policies

Recently a number of studies have recognized that trade policy can be substituted for by competition policy. This study demonstrates, however, that there is a fundamental difference in the working of terms‐of‐trade effects between competition policy and tariff policy and that if countries optimally set their respective competition policies, it is unlikely to result in a tariff‐war‐like state in which all countries adopt distortionary policies. Instead, in a Nash equilibrium, one country maintains perfect competition in its domestic service sector while the other country tolerates imperfect competition.     

NATURAL DISASTERS,DAMAGE TO BANKS,AND FIRM INVESTMENT

This article investigates the effect of banks’ lending capacity on firms’ investment. To identify exogenous shocks to loan supply, we utilize the natural experiment provided by Japan's Great Hanshin‐Awaji earthquake in 1995. Using a unique data set that allows us to identify firms and banks in the earthquake‐affected areas, we find that the investment ratio of firms located outside the earthquake‐affected areas but having a main bank inside the areas was significantly smaller than that of firms located outside the areas and having a main bank outside the areas. Our findings suggest that loan supply shocks affect firm investment.     

THE MARKET SELECTS THE WRONG FIRMS IN THE LONG RUN*

We consider the effects of free entry on the market structure and social welfare of an asymmetric Cournot oligopoly. Even if we allow for the existence of different types of firms initially, only one type (in almost all cases) can survive in the long run. Free entry leads an economy to a symmetric equilibrium, in which the excess entry theorem holds. Further, we consider the socially optimal policy for this economy. In cases of either (i) a concave demand (which implies strategic substitutability) or (ii) strategic complementarity (which implies a convex demand), the type of firms that should remain in the market to achieve social optimality does not necessarily coincide with the type of firms that will survive in the long run. The market may select not only the wrong number of firms but also the wrong type of firms in the long run.     

人民币和中国经济

中国存在着许多结构性问题,如社会保障制度不健全,金融体制不完善等.这些问题的根源都不在汇率制度.要在根本上解决问题,在实行人民币升值和改革人民币汇率制度,提高汇率制度灵活性的同时,还要抑制投资过热,控制银行贷款规模,发展银行存款以外的股票、债券等资本市场,推进国有企业改革,实施消除将来不安的社会保障政策,实现利率自由化,改革金融体制等.只有使这些政策措施互相配合,很好地联动,才能取得卓越的成效.