Optimizing object classification under ambiguity/ignorance: application to the credit rating problem

A nascent technique for object classification is employed to exposit the classification of US banks to their financial strength ratings, presented by the Moody's Investors Services. The classification technique primarily utilized, called CaRBS (classification and ranking belief simplex), allows for the presence of ignorance to be inherent. The modern constrained optimization method, trigonometric differential evolution (TDE), is adopted to configure a CaRBS system. Two different objective functions are considered with TDE to measure the level of optimization achieved, which utilize differently the need to reduce ambiguity and/or ignorance inherently during the optimization process. The appropriateness of the CaRBS system to analyse incomplete data is also highlighted, with no requirement to impute any missing values or remove objects with missing values inherent. Comparative results are also presented using the well‐known multivariate discriminant analysis and neural network models. The findings in this study identify a novel dimension to the issue of object classification optimization, with the discernment between the concomitant notions of ambiguity and ignorance. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of celebrity in endorsing poverty reduction through international aid

• ‘Celebrity endorsement’ is a strategy that is gathering increasing momentum in attempts to develop public awareness of the plight of the poor. 1
• 1 We say below the goal of endorsement is not necessarily donations but political commitment.
Understanding of public perceptions is clearly important for international organizations seeking to make use of celebrity in furthering their causes. This paper reports the results of a preliminary survey conducted among 100 members of the Irish public to evaluate levels of awareness of celebrity involvement in international development work and the public's opinions about such involvement. The survey instrument was semi-structured with some open-ended questions. The focus was on respondents' ability to identify celebrities associated with such work, and to elicit their opinions on those celebrities' perceived aims, knowledge of international development, and influence upon the respondent. It also requested opinions of the value of celebrity involvement more generally. The results suggest that respondents are generally able to distinguish between celebrities and their various causes. Most found their involvement to be valuable in raising the profile of charities, though only a small number claimed to be personally influenced by such activity. The respondents were fairly cynical as to the motives of most celebrities, whose involvement they felt served their own aims—namely publicity—first and foremost.
• Most respondents were more likely to be influenced by their perceptions of the character of the celebrity rather than their causes. They respected celebrities they felt were genuinely committed to the causes they espoused, but paradoxically, they felt such commitment was best demonstrated by the celebrity keeping a low profile and not actively seeking publicity. Long-term commitment to a given cause was also highly regarded. The results are discussed with regard to theories of social persuasion and the dilemma's facing celebrities who get involve in endorsement of charity aid or campaigns. More research is necessary to substantiate and further develop our findings.

Copyright ©2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns

The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue relatively more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has stable predictive power in both halves of the sample period and after controlling for other known predictors. We do not find support for efficient market explanations of the results. Instead, the fact that the equity share sometimes predicts significantly negative market returns suggests inefficiency and that firms time the market component of their returns when issuing securities.     

The real structural imbalance and fiscal stance in Australia during the interwar years

By using the concept of the constant employment budget balance and changes in real public debt it is possible to determine the size of the public sector's real structural budget imbalances during the interwar period. In doing so the budget deficit of the public sector during the depression is shown to have been much larger than indicated by previous estimates of the nominal budget imbalance, and indicates that the fiscal stance of the government was expansionary during the worst year of the Great Depression rather than contractionary.     

International Union v. Johnson Controls: Resolving the dilemma between fetal protection policies and equal employment opportunities

This article examines the implications that theJohnson Controls decision is likely to have for organizational policies governing fetal protection in the workplace. A brief history of the evolution of legal theory regarding fetal protection policies and Title VII is provided. Particular attention is devoted to examining the appropriate analytical framework for such policies, the changing requirements for the employer's burden of proof, and the likely consequences of applying disparate treatment theory of discrimination over disparate impact theory in analyzing the facts of such cases. Additionally, this article raises some of the social issues that will result from the employer's responsibility to protect the unborn children of its employees and the rights of those employees to equal employment opportunities.