Testing the significance and the non-linearity of the Phillips trade-off in the Euro Area

This paper tests the significance and the non-linearity of the Phillips trade-off in the aggregate Euro Area, in an unobserved components model of stochastic NAIRU and trend output featuring the Phillips equation and the Okun law as main identifying equations, with quarterly data for 1970:I-2002:III. The Phillips curve turns out to be linear and its trade-off statistically significant, while non-linearity shows up in the Okun relation. The results prove to be robust to alternative lag length structures of the model, and to alternative non-linear functional forms. The trend-cycle decompositions estimated with the model capture the main features of the Euro Area’s recent macroeconomic record.First version received: 1 September 2003 / Final version received: June 2004CEMPRE - Centro de Estudos Macroeconómicos e Previsão - is supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the Programa Operacional Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (POCTI) of the Quadro Comunitário de Apoio III, which is financed by FEDER and Portuguese funds.We thank comments on earlier versions by Fabio Canova, Miguel St Aubyn, Alvaro Almeida, Pete Richardson, Kevin Ross, and two anonymous referees. We acknowledge James D. Hamilton’s help with the confidence bands. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Integrating retirement and permanent disability in NDC pension schemes

In this article, we develop a theoretical basis for integrating retirement and permanent disability using a generic nonfinancial defined contribution framework. The methodology we use relies on a multistate overlapping generations model that includes the so-called survivor dividend. Currently, this feature can only be found in the Swedish defined contribution (DC) scheme. The results achieved in the numerical example we present endorse the fact that the model works well. Special attention is given to the assumptions made about mortality rates for disabled people and disability incidence rates, which largely determine the contribution rate assigned to disability. The model could be of interest to policymakers because, after some adaptations, it could be implemented without too much difficulty and would uncover the real cost of disability and minimize the risk of disability insurance being used as a vote-buying mechanism.     

Which projects are selected for an innovation subsidy? The Portuguese case

Portuguese Economic Journal - Several empirical studies have analyzed which firm characteristics influence government evaluators in the decision to select specific firms to participate in Research...     

The end of growth in residential tourism destinations: steady state or sustainable development? The case of Calpe

This article discusses how the slowdown in the real estate market during the most recent economic and financial crisis has affected residential tourism destinations on the Spanish coast. The afore-mentioned crisis, which gave rise to a standstill in residential activity, coincided with the turbulences experienced in the competing destinations of Northern Africa, which brought about a record number of international tourist arrivals to Spain. The resulting situation enables us to explore the future scenario of all the Spanish destinations that, due to the depletion of available land, are reaching their maximum levels of urban growth. Examining the case of Calpe, a destination which is representative of the Spanish Mediterranean, the study analyses whether the foreseeable dynamics for the future are conceptualized in the favourable terms that characterize “sustainable development” or, on the contrary, exhibit negative implications which the classic economists refer to as the “steady state”.