On improving the least squares Monte Carlo option valuation method

This paper studies various possible approaches to improving the least squares Monte Carlo option valuation method. We test different regression algorithms and suggest a variation to estimating the option continuation value, which can reduce the execution time of the algorithm by one third. We test the choice of varying polynomial families with different number of basis functions. We compare several variance reduction techniques, and find that using low discrepancy sequences can improve the accuracy up to four times. We also extend our analysis to compound and mutually exclusive options. For the latter, we propose an improved algorithm which is faster and more accurate.     

Determinants of work organization in the modern firm: change and continuity in the Spanish labour relations

The host of statistical data on labour organization from the 2004 Encuesta de Calidad de Vida en el Trabajo (2005) will be used as a basis for using factorial analysis to identify the factors that determine how ‘modern’ companies organize their work according to business management literature. Workers' identification with their company seems to be the essence of a good part of business managers' objectives. The results of the research point to a continuity in a worker profile that largely corresponds to the Fordist model, with a few significant changes: the domain of some non-conflictive industrial relations which is settled on the value that is given to the good relationships with mates and managers and the flexible work-class positive assessment that allows to harmonize other life aspects.     

The economic costs and benefits of a participatory project to conserve maize landraces on farms in Oaxaca,Mexico⋆

Conventional methods were used to assess the benefits and costs of an unconventional project whose purpose was to test whether participatory crop improvement can encourage Mexican farmers to continue growing maize landraces by enhancing their current use value. Findings suggest that farmers as a group earned a high benefit‐cost ratio from participating, though from the perspective of the private investor the returns were low. The project also generated social benefits, but these would be difficult (and costly) to measure. There was a gender bias in both participation and benefits distributions, though there is some evidence of a welfare transfer to maize deficit households. Application of other valuation approaches will be necessary in order to assess both the private and social benefits of similar projects.     

Ownership Structure of Cooperatives as an Environmental Buffer*

ABSTRACT In this paper, we propose that the ownership structure in the cooperative form acts as an environmental buffer. It is a mechanism to obtain stronger linkages with suppliers by internalizing them, and in this way, obtaining fundamental resources. Using this strategy, the cooperative form can isolate itself from adverse environments and from competition from other organizational forms. Although cooperatives have higher survival probability in any economic context, in rival ideological environments they have less support than other organizational forms. To test these ideas, we have chosen data from the Spanish olive oil milling industry for 1944–98. During this period, Spain changed from a dictatorial to a democratic regime and from a self‐subsistence economy in the post civil‐war period to a broad liberal international economy. The results show that, whereas other organizational forms are affected by economic and ideological influences, the cooperative form isolates itself by changing the competition level.     

Inflation before and after central bank independence: The case of Colombia

In this paper we model the Colombian inflation rate in terms of excess demand effects from asset, goods and factor markets. In contrast to previous results for a group of industrial economies, we find that domestic factors are a far more powerful influence on inflation than are external factors. The paper pays particular attention to the potential effects of the Constitutional Reform of 1991, which created a Central Bank independent from other parts of government. We find that the creation of an independent Central Bank did change some of the parameters of the model, as the disequilibria in goods and monetary markets were found to have a smaller effect on inflation after Central Bank independence was granted.     

Forecasting an accumulated series based on partial accumulation II: A new Bayesian method for short series with stable seasonal patterns

The problem of forecasting a time series with only a small amount of data is addressed within a Bayesian framework. The quantity to be predicted is the accumulated value of a positive and continuous variable for which partially accumulated data are available. These conditions appear in a natural way in many situations. A simple model is proposed to describe the relationship between the partial and total values of the variable to be forecasted assuming stable seasonality, which is specified in stochastic terms. Analytical results are obtained for both the point forecast and the entire posterior predictive distribution. The proposed technique does not involve approximations. It allows the use of non-informative priors so that implementation may be automatic. The procedure works well when standard methods cannot be applied due to the reduced number of observations. It also improves on previous results published by the authors. Some real examples are included.     

Detection of Automobile Insurance Fraud With Discrete Choice Models and Misclassified Claims

The insurance industry is concerned with the detection of fraudulent behavior. The number of automobile claims involving some kind of suspicious circumstance is high and has become a subject of major interest for companies. This article demonstrates the performance of binary choice models for fraud detection and implements models for misclassification in the response variable. A database from the Spanish insurance market that contains honest and fraudulent claims is used. The estimation of the probability of omission provides an estimate of the percentage of fraudulent claims that are not detected by the logistic regression model.     

非洲和华盛顿共识：寻找正确之路

关于“华盛顿共识”的解释，如同世界上的地区一样多。对于非洲来说，虽然已经证明其多数国家难以进行完全的改革，但改革这一术语所包容的丰富内涵已经成为制定经济政策的有益指导，这主要集中在财政纪律和私有化方面。任何地方都很少会有国家完全照搬华盛顿共识，相当得要的原因是一些国家在文化和历史方面