Forecasting development outcomes under alternative surplus labour assumptions

Economic forecasts are useful to policymakers both as aids to planning, and as baselines against which counterfactual scenarios can be compared. However, policy makers should be aware that assumptions relating to model structure can influence forecast results. We explore the sensitivity of forecasts to one aspect of model structure important in modelling developing economies: surplus agricultural labour. We outline a framework for modelling surplus agricultural labour that relies on average product remuneration. We embed this within a model of a developing economy (the Philippines) characterized by surplus agricultural labour. We compare the results of two forecasts that differ in their treatment of the agricultural labour market. In the first, the surplus labour theory is activated, establishing average product remuneration in agriculture. In the second, the surplus labour theory is not activated, creating a failure to recognize average product remuneration in agriculture. By comparing the two simulations, we show that failure to model the presence of average product remuneration, when it would be appropriate to do so, has an impact that would be material to economic planners, leading them to: under-estimate agricultural employment; over-estimate GDP growth; and, over-estimate important policy variables (like tax revenue) that are related to GDP growth.     

Physical and Economic Consequences of Sea-Level Rise: A Coupled GIS and CGE Analysis Under Uncertainties

This paper develops a modelling framework that links GEMINI-E3, a multi-regional, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model with a cost-benefit analysis approach at local level using geographical information system tools to assess the physical and economic consequences of sea-level rise (SLR) in the twenty first century. A set of future scenarios is developed spanning the uncertainties related to global warming, the parameters of semi-empirical SLR estimates, and coastal developments (cropland, urban areas and population). The importance of incorporating uncertainties regarding coastal development is highlighted. The simulation results suggest that the potential development of future coastal areas is a greater source of uncertainty than the parameters of SLR itself in terms of the economic consequences of SLR. At global level, the economic impact of SLR could be significant when loss of productive land along with loss of capital and forced displacement of populations are considered. Furthermore, highly urbanised and densely populated coastal areas of South East Asia, Australia and New Zealand are likely to suffer significantly if no protective measures are taken. Hence, it is suggested that coastal areas needs to be protected to ameliorate the overall welfare cost across various regions.     

FAIR RETIREMENT UNDER RISKY LIFETIME*

A premature death unexpectedly brings a life and a career to their end, leading to substantial welfare losses. We study the retirement decision in an economy with risky lifetime and compare the laissez‐faire with egalitarian social optima. We consider two social objectives: (1) the maximin on expected lifetime welfare, allowing for a compensation for unequal life expectancies, and (2) the maximin on realized lifetime welfare, allowing for a compensation for unequal lifetimes. The latter optimum involves, in general, decreasing lifetime consumption profiles as well as raising the retirement age. This result is robust to the introduction of unequal life expectancies and unequal productivities.     

Are sponsorship announcements good news for the shareholders? Evidence from international stock exchanges

The objective of this study is to analyse investors’ perceptions of sponsorship’s ability to increase brand equity, through the impact of sponsorship announcement on stock market value. An event study method, based on a unique sample of 293 worldwide sponsorship announcements from 2010, shows substantial negative abnormal returns following announcement dates. In addition, a cross-sectional regression analysis reveals the influence of several featured factors. Philanthropic sponsorships and sponsorships of events with distinctive values are less negatively perceived by investors, but US companies exhibit more negative returns in shareholder value than other firms. This study offers no support for varying impacts of event audience, renewal agreement, property sponsorship and title sponsorship on abnormal returns though.     

Long-term reactions to large stock price declines and increases in the European stock market: a note on market efficiency

This study tests for underreaction and overreaction in European large cap markets by examining the abnormal returns of those stocks in the EuroStoxx 50 Index following large price increases and decreases. We find that large price increases and declines tend to be followed by average market returns. Thus, our results support the efficient market theory, rather than any of the behaviour finance hypotheses. This insight is contrary to price patterns found in various national markets.     

Arrovian aggregation in economic environments: how much should we know about indifference surfaces?

Arrow's celebrated theorem of social choice shows that the aggregation of individual preferences into a social ordering cannot make the ranking of any pair of alternatives depend only on individual preferences over that pair, unless the fundamental weak Pareto and non-dictatorship principles are violated. In the standard model of division of commodities, we investigate how much information about indifference surfaces is needed to construct social ordering functions satisfying the weak Pareto principle and anonymity. We show that local information such as marginal rates of substitution or the shapes “within the Edgeworth box” is not enough, and knowledge of substantially non-local information is necessary.     

Achieving brand loyalty through sponsorship: the role of fit and self-congruity

Managers increasingly seek to develop brand loyalty through sponsorship activities, though this relationship has not been solidly established. This article models and demonstrates the impact of sponsorship on brand loyalty. The studied concepts and relationships emerge from both the sponsorship and consumer-brand relationship literature. The experimental design relies on before and after measurements and multiple exposures to the sponsorship. Thus this study demonstrates that sponsorship exposure has a positive impact on brand affect, brand trust, and brand loyalty. The change in brand loyalty from before to after sponsorship exposure reflects two persuasion processes. First, self-congruity with an event enhances brand loyalty through event and brand affect. Second, perceived fit between the event and the brand has a positive effect on brand affect, through attitude toward the sponsorship, and on brand trust, such that it ultimately influences brand loyalty. Brand affect is identified as an important mediator of sponsorship effects.     

Supplier Development Responsibility and NPD Project Outcomes: The Roles of Monetary Quantification of Differences and Supporting‐Detail Gathering

Firms increasingly rely on suppliers to perform tasks in new product development (NPD). Research has only recently begun to focus on the processes to manage this supplier development responsibility, and has hardly investigated how firms collect and analyze information regarding the cost and performance of alternative supplier offerings. Our study addresses this gap, through a field survey among 144 paired samples of project leaders and cost analysts involved in the same NPD projects. On the basis of literature and qualitative research, we conceptualize a substantive model. We first use a substantive validity assessment to vet the measures for the proposed constructs. We then test the substantive model with structural equation modeling using a multiple‐sample analysis. The results strongly show that monetary quantification of differences and detail gathering play significant roles in successfully leveraging supplier development responsibility. The findings support the hypothesis that the extent of development responsibility that suppliers have leads the development team to a more focused monetary quantification of the differences in alternative supplier offerings. Monetary quantification of differences has a significant, positive effect on the extent of supporting‐detail gathering and on the development speed of the project, whereas supporting‐detail gathering has a significant, positive effect on the product advantage of the new product as well as development speed. These findings are robust across the two functional perspectives. Our study complements the literature on interfirm control and monitoring by demonstrating the effects of selective and focused output controls.