Challenges for land system science

While considerable progress has been made in understanding land use change, land system science continues to face a number of grand challenges. This paper discusses these challenges with a focus on empirical land system studies, land system modelling and the analysis of future visions of land system change. Contemporary landscapes are contingent outcomes of past and present patterns, processes and decisions. Thus, empirical analysis of past and present land-use change has an important role in providing insights into the socio-economic and ecological processes that shape land use transitions. This is especially important with respect to gradual versus rapid land system dynamics and in understanding changes in land use intensity. Combining the strengths of empirical analysis with multi-scale modelling will lead to new insights into the processes driving land system change. New modelling methods that combine complex systems thinking at a local level with macro-level economic analysis of the land system would reconcile the multi-scale dynamics currently encapsulated in bottom-up and top-down modelling approaches. Developments in land use futures analysis could focus on integrating explorative scenarios that reflect possible outcomes with normative visions that identify desired outcomes. Such an approach would benefit from the broad and in-depth involvement of stakeholders in order to link scientific findings to political and societal decision-making culminating in a set of key choices and consequences. Land system models have an important role in supporting future land use policy, but model outputs require scientific interpretation rather than being presented as predictions. The future of land system science is strongly dependent on the research community's capacity to bring together the elements of research discussed in the paper, via empirical data collection and analysis of observed processes, computer simulation across scale levels and futures analysis of alternative, normative visions through stakeholder engagement.     

Once were farmers: Occupation, social mobility, and mortality during industrialization in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Quebec 1840–1971

We study men's adult mortality and longevity by socio-occupational status during industrialization in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Quebec. Data were extracted from the BALSAC database (Université du Québec à Chicoutimi), which comprehensively traces the demographic history of the region since the beginning of the French Canadian settlement in 1840 up to the early 1970s. Using five occupational classes and controlling for year, age at marriage, urban/rural residence, and literacy, we found no evidence for the emergence of a socioeconomic gradient in mortality. At least until the early 1970s, mortality in the region is the lowest for farmers and appears to be driven by occupational risk rather than fundamental social causes.     

Market Share and Price in Dutch Home Care: Market Power or Quality?

The paper uses unique data on contracts concluded by providers of home care to evaluate the effect of provider market power on prices of home care services in the Netherlands. Since, at least in some regions, one or two providers dominate the market, there are concerns about the effect of providers’ market power on the pricing of home care services. Using data on contracted prices and quantities for 2004–2006, we find that providers with a larger market share are able to contract at a higher price. The effect remains after controlling for quality.     

Forecasting the Yen/U.S. Dollar exchange rate: Empirical evidence from a capital enhanced relative PPP-based model

This study uses a relative purchasing power parity (PPP) model based on price indexes (consumer, CPI or traded-goods price indexes, TPI), interest rate differentials, and a linear forecasting technique to determine the horizon over which such a model outperforms a random walk in forecasting the Yen/U.S. Dollar exchange rates out-of-sample. The results improve if one adjusts a simple CPI-based PPP-model by interest rate differentials, while the best results are obtained using a TPI-based PPP-model. For example, the TPI-based model, adjusted by interest rate differentials, is able to statistically significantly outperform the pure random walk starting at forecast horizons of 1 month.     

New Belgian Stock Market Returns: 1832–1914

The limited availability of high quality and computer readable data seriously impedes research in history and finance. We introduce a new monthly return series for Belgian owned equity based on Brussels Stock Market data for the period 1832–1914 as an improvement to the popular Drappier index. Over this period, our dataset includes 446,374 prices, 23,976 dividends, 371 stock and reverse splits (or other capital operations) on 2037 stocks of 1387 (foreign and Belgian) companies. Our dataset includes all shares and bonds but also high-quality information on prices, dividends, shares outstanding and market capitalization. In addition, company, country and sector information is available. We construct value weighted, price weighted and equally weighted indices as well as dividend yields. We find three important results. First, total nominal returns hover between 3.29% and 5.35% per annum, depending on how individual stocks are aggregated into the index. Second, dividend income constitutes the major part of total return and dividend distributions have a clear seasonal pattern. Third, the results highlight several drawbacks of the Drappier indices, especially an upward bias in expected equity performance.     

The relationship between ethics and firm practices in Russia and the United States

One of the fundamental objectives of corporate governance is to promote a climate that fosters ethical decision-making. As transitioning economies move toward more transparent and democratic systems the existence of policies, such as codes of ethics, that attempt to monitor and control moral behavior will become increasingly important. The establishment of ethical standards not only encourages trust with potential trade partners but also is likely to cultivate foreign direct investment. In this study, data collected from 112 U.S. and 74 Russian respondents reveal some intriguing patterns across these two diverse economies. Managerial implications and future research directions are also discussed.     

Workforce diversity initiatives of U.S. multinational corporations in Europe

Although most U.S. multinational corporations have substantial workforce diversity management programs in their U.S. operations, they are only beginning to consider parallel efforts in their overseas subsidiaries and affiliates. The internationalization issue is particularly prominent in the European Union, where competitive, demographic, legal, and political developments make workforce diversity issues unavoidable within the next few years. Instead of simply replicating U.S. programs, however, diversity initiatives in Europe need to adapt to each employer's strategic objectives, degree of organizational integration, and local needs. The experiences of Lucent Technologies Inc. and The Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies illustrate two contrasting approaches. The former has adopted a strongly multidomestic strategy, while the latter has a more global approach. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Inequality‐averse well‐being measurement

We construct individual well‐being measures that respect individual preferences and depend on the bundles of goods consumed by the individual. Building on previous work in which general families of well‐being measures are identified, we introduce basic transfer principles that apply either to bundles or directly to indifference sets, and we characterize specific well‐being measures that involve either the ray utility or the money‐metric utility.     

Trade Impact Analysis on the ASEAN-China Trade in Goods Agreement

Background ASEAN and China signed the ASEAN-China Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation which entered into force on 1 July 2003.     

PASSPORT OPTIONS

We relate the theory of passport options with general principles from martingale theory as well as with the theory of Bessel processcs. The calculation of the price of a passport option leads to an equality between two norms on continuous martingales. We also solve the discrete time case for passport options.