Money growth volatility and the demand for money in Germany: Friedman’s volatility hypothesis revisited

Money Growth Volatility and the Demand for Money in Germany: Friedman’s Volatility Hypothesis Revisited. — Recently, the Bundesbank claimed that monetary targeting has become considerably more difficult by the increased volatility of short-term money growth. The present paper investigates the impact of German money growth volatility on income velocity and money demand in view of Friedman’s money growth volatility hypothesis. Granger-causality tests provide some evidence for a velocity/volatility linkage. However, the estimation of volatility-augmented money demand functions reveals that — in contrast to Friedman’s hypothesis — increased money growth volatility lowered the demand for money.     

Global economy gathering strength

Encouraged by a highly expansionary economic policy, the global economy is enjoying a rapid upturn. Utilisation of capacity is high in many sectors, particularly in the growth centres of the USA and East Asia, where China leads the field. With inflationary risks on the increase, most countries are now shifting the focus of economic policy. Fiscal policy in particular can be expected to provide little in the way of further stimulus. In addition, there has been a turnaround in interest rates in many countries. Yet how quickly can the monetary reins be tightened without jeopardising growth or endangering price stability?     

Central bank transparency and market efficiency: An econometric analysis

Blinder (1998) argues that more open public disclosure of central bank policies may enhance the efficiency of markets. We examine this claim by studying whether the Federal Reserve System's 1994 policy shift toward more open disclosure improved or worsened the predictability of financial markets. Employing methods analogous to Campbell and Shiller (1991), we find that since 1994, the forecasting error has decreased for interest rates on U.S. bonds of most maturity lengths, and that the expectations hypothesis has performed better at the low end of the yield curve. These findings are inconsistent with the view that increased central bank transparency will decrease the efficiency of financial markets. The authors would like to thank participants of the 2001 Midwest Macroeconomics Conference and 2001 Missouri Economics Conference for their helpful comments and suggestions. All errors are, of course, the author's.     

Analysing Materials and Energy Flows in an Industrial District using an Enterprise Input–Output Model

Recent approaches to sustainable development leave much room for policies at a local level. In fact, it is becoming evident that targets such as increasing resource productivity, preserving natural cycles, or extending the present level of welfare, are best pursued within the confines of a local area. In particular, environmental changes are best brought about by considering local systems of firms as cornerstones of cooperative strategies and using data on materials and energy use in physical terms. In this paper, an enterprise input–output model is developed for an industrial district, i.e. a local group of firms specialized in the production of a single final output. The model allows for a detailed quantitative analysis of materials and energy flows and the consequent generation of waste and pollution. As a planning tool, the model may be used to evaluate alternative scenarios, such as the possibility of re- using waste taking account of sustainability requirements. An empirical case study applies the model to an industrial district in Southern Italy producing leather sofas.     

Regulating Banks through Market Discipline: A Survey of the Issues

Abstract.  The interest in the application of market discipline to regulate the financial industry has boomed recently due to the proposed New Capital Accord. This paper reviews the potential role market discipline can play in financial regulation. We start with a discussion of the rationale for financial regulation and with a brief history of the current regulatory mechanisms. Next, a definition of market discipline as a regulatory mechanism is advanced. We evaluate the disciplining power various market participants have. Finally, we argue that more external risk management disclosure is a condition sine qua non in order to enable market discipline as a regulatory mechanism. In this respect, the Basle Committee has taken the right approach.     

Daylight saving effect

Kamstra et al. [Kamstra, M.J., Kramer, L.A., Levi, M.D., 2000. Losing sleep at the market: the daylight saving anomaly. The American Economic Review 90, 1005–1011] argue that the mean weekend return following the changes in daylight saving time is less than the mean weekend return throughout the rest of the year. Opposing studies, such as Pinegar [Pinegar, J.M., 2002. Losing sleep at the market: comment. The American Economic Review 92, 1251–1256), reason that the observed results depend upon methodology. We extend the ongoing discussions by providing further evidence for equity markets and bond markets in Germany and across Europe. We further demonstrate that the daylight saving effect does not serve as a potential rationale for the weekend effect.     

粮库粉土地基的动力特性研究

通过某国家粮食库的粉土地基土进行动三轴试验,研究了动荷载作用下粉土地基土的动力特性,得到了粉土的动孔压发展特性、液化特性和液化机理.为粮库的设计、施工及防护提供参考.