Predictability of the U.S. Dollar Index using a U.S. export and import price index-based relative PPP model

We use U.S. export and import price indexes to construct a relative purchasing power parity-based model of the nominal U.S. Dollar Index. The model is successful in predicting the future direction of change in the U.S. Dollar Index over a six-month period up to 68% of the time. Finally, the model, in combination with a simple linear, recursive technique, is able to statistically significantly outperform the random walk in predicting the value of the U.S. Dollar Index at terms of less than four months for the period from 1996 to 2005. The paper provides important implications for investors who are interested in the direction of change in the Dollar’s value, forecasting the level of the U.S. Dollar Index, as well as the extent of over- and undervaluation of the U.S. Dollar, in general.     

Multimarket and multiproject collusion

Summary If firms meet in a number of markets, they may respond to an action in one market by reacting in another market. Fear for such retaliation may induce multimarket firms to collude across markets. The paper assesses available theoretical and empirical evidence on the multimarket collusion theory. Moreover, the paper suggests that the theory can be fruitfully applied in the context of European integration. The focus is on collusion by firms which meet in product markets as well as in joint R&D projects. A model develops three propositions, which shed light on the subsequently provided (tentative) evidence on multidimensional contact in an integrating Europe. The discussion may serve as a framework for future research into both the theoretical and the empirical domain with applications to the issue of European integration.We gratefully acknowledge John Hagedoorn for providing access to the MERIT/CATI database, and two referees for their comments. Of course, the usual disclaimer applies     

OPEC’s Risk Premia and Volatility in Oil Prices

International Advances in Economic Research - This paper discusses a reason for volatility in oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC’s) revenues are...     

Competitive effects of trade: theory and measurement

In this paper, I develop a simple model of heterogeneous exporters to a single destination. This model highlights how the response of producer markups to market-level changes in that destination are intrinsically tied to the induced reallocation of export sales to that destination. I discuss how additional assumptions on the shape of demand (originally advocated by Alfred Marshall as his second law of demand) generate specific predictions for the response of those markups and induced product reallocations to increases in market size and competition in a destination: markups fall and market shares are reallocated towards better performing products. Recent evidence on French multi-product exporters strongly confirms this prediction for market share reallocations. The predictions for the markup responses are also consistent with the findings of the large empirical literature on pricing to market and incomplete pass-through.     

The Tail Probability of Discounted Sums of Pareto-like Losses in Insurance

In an insurance context, the discounted sum of losses within a finite or infinite time period can be described as a randomly weighted sum of a sequence of independent random variables. These independent random variables represent the amounts of losses in successive development years, while the weights represent the stochastic discount factors. In this paper, we investigate the problem of approximating the tail probability of this weighted sum in the case when the losses have Pareto-like distributions and the discount factors are mutually dependent. We also give some simulation results.     

Options on realized variance and convex orders

Realized variance option and options on quadratic variation normalized to unit expectation are analysed for the property of monotonicity in maturity for call options at a fixed strike. When this condition holds the risk-neutral densities are said to be increasing in the convex order. For Lévy processes, such prices decrease with maturity. A time series analysis of squared log returns on the S&P 500 index also reveals such a decrease. If options are priced to a slightly increasing level of acceptability, then the resulting risk-neutral densities can be increasing in the convex order. Calibrated stochastic volatility models yield possibilities in both directions. Finally, we consider modeling strategies guaranteeing an increase in convex order for the normalized quadratic variation. These strategies model instantaneous variance as a normalized exponential of a Lévy process. Simulation studies suggest that other transformations may also deliver an increase in the convex order.     

PO Lock-in Agreements in the UK

When a company offers shares in an initial public offering (IPO), existing owners often enter into lock-in agreements prohibiting them from selling shares for a specified period after the IPO. There is some recent US evidence of predictable share-price movements at the time of expiry of these lock-in agreements. Using a sample of 188 firms, 83 classified as high-tech and 105 others, that went public on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) during 1992–1998, we focus on the characteristics of lock-in agreements in the UK and on the behaviour of stocks returns around the lock-in expiry date. We find that the lock-in contracts of LSE-listed firms are much more complex, varied and diverse than US contracts, which usually standardise the lock-in period at 180 days after the IPO. We also find evidence of negative abnormal stock returns at and around lock-in expiry of similar magnitude to those reported in US studies. However, these abnormal returns are typically not statistically significant. While the deterioration in stock returns immediately around the expiry date appears to be particularly much more pronounced for high-tech stocks than for others, the differences in performance are not statistically significant.